Week 6 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Howdy, y'all, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings under the microscope and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. Do note that the ECR is likely to shift a bit!

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros out of 125 last season and sit at 28th out of 130 so far in ‘18. I’m out to show that 2017 was no fluke and you’ve got a VIP pass to the show. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR, and TE -- feel free to holler if you really want K or DEF notes.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s get to it.

Week 6 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

It appears that Minnesota’s offensive line is as bad as feared over the offseason, which is good news for Kirk Cousins’ fantasy owners and bad news for Minny’s running backs. Some of you in 8-team or 10-team leagues may feel like you’ve got a better play in Cam Newton or hot-pickup Jameis Winston, but Cousins is poised to tear the Cardinals apart. Patrick Peterson can only play against one of Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen, with Budda Baker and Bene’ Benwikere sure to languish against the other.

I’ve got Ben Roethlisberger (+2) and Russell Wilson (+2) falling to the fringe of 12-team viability, with Philip Rivers my widest faller, going five slots to No. 20 in my rankings. The Chargers are heading east for an early-slate game against an upstart Cleveland team in a contest that Vegas has bet down to 44.5 points from a 46 open.

Week 6 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Presumably, nobody is sitting T.J. Yeldon after last week’s stellar showing. But I do worry some may not realize that he’s a true top-10 RB this week against a Dallas unit still missing linebacker Sean Lee. Corey Grant hasn’t done much and Brandon Wilds was just cut for Jamaal Charles, while Austin Seferian-Jenkins has hit the IR and no wideout is showing up as consistent.

The Packers were undone by Mason Crosby’s missed kicks and a wild start against the Lions, which left Aaron Jones out in the cold as Aaron Rodgers tried to will Green Bay back into the game. I still have Jones (+4) within my RB2 circle of trust with the Pack heavily favored (9.5 points as of Wednesday night) against the 49ers on Monday night. San Francisco has given up 676 total yards and six total TDs to opposing RBs through five games and I like Jones’ odds at a strong game.

I like Philadelphia to control the game on the ground and am suspecting the Packers will need to lean on its RBBC with Randall Cobb (hamstring) and fan-favorite Geronimo Allison (concussion) dinged up and possibly out. The prospect of playing Marquez Valdes-Scantling is thrilling, don’t get me wrong, but I highly doubt the pass-run ratio stays unaffected should both WRs miss the game.

I don’t particularly understand the love for LeSean McCoy -- perhaps it’s simply the workload compared to so many “committee backs” in that RB20-35 band, but an ECR of 19 against a Houston defense that’s allowed fewer than 3.5 yards per carry and one rushing TD thus far seems rich. I will gladly take the under on McCoy until he is traded.

Fellow former top fantasy pick Adrian Peterson is another dud waiting to happen. Not only did he separate his shoulder on Monday night and now has that soreness to cope with, but he’s playing on a Washington offense that is inconsistent at its best against a Panthers defense that gets stud LB Thomas Davis back from suspension. Pass.

Week 6 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I don’t think anyone needs a nudge to start John Brown, but just in case you do, the man leads the league in air yards by a healthy 104-yard margin over the last three weeks combined. Brown has 603 while DeAndre Hopkins has 499. Antonio Callaway is third with just 378! Anyway, while Joe Flacco isn’t Cool Hand Luke back there in the pocket, he’s clearly slinging it to Brown.

Keke Coutee has done well enough where you may consider playing him over some of my lesser-liked WRs, as he’s totaled 22 targets in just two active games. The resulting 17-160-1 line is beautiful and NFL’s NextGen stats give him five yards of separation at the time of the catch -- good for best in the NFL by a WR.

There are a handful of feasible WR2/3 types that I feel are best viewed as flexes. Both Allen Robinson and Alshon Jeffery carry ECR’s as high-end WR3’s -- near the No. 25 WR -- but Jeffery is up against Janoris Jenkins, who has capped DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas and Devin Funchess to 31 combined PPR points in the past three games, and Robinson will likely see a steady diet of Miami’s Xavien Howard.

Speaking of that Miami-Chicago game, I’m willing to bet that Ryan Tannehill never winds up with enough time to hit Kenny Stills deep. Stills is notoriously boom-bust thus far and hasn’t topped four receptions yet. His reliance on the long ball to make fantasy value results in a “sit” from me. Miami is also ranked second to last with 52 plays run per game. Bleh.

Week 6 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

I have Cameron Brate at No. 8 compared to a No. 10 ECR figure, Kyle Rudolph at No. 9 (ECR: 11), Austin Hooper at No. 11 (ECR: 13) and the likes of C.J. Uzomah (15 vs. 18), Ryan Griffin (16 vs. 22) and Jeff Heuerman (18 vs. 25) rounding out the TE2 class jumpers. Those feeling even bolder can take my elevation of Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee (+5 and +8) up a notch, but only if Brandin Cooks and/or Cooper Kupp misses Week 6.

To address these simply and in order: Brate has at least one week with no O.J. Howard and has shown great chemistry with Jameis Winston in the past, which bodes well in a plus matchup against Atlanta’s porous defense. Rudolph gets the same Kirk Cousins boost for me as I think it’s on the passing game to produce. Hooper faces the Bucs laughable defense.

Uzomah played 92% of snaps in Week 5 and is clearly the TE to own in Cincinnati following Tyler Eifert’s injury. Griffin caught six-of-nine targets for 65 yards in Week 5 and now faces a Buffalo defense that yielded TDs to Rudolph and Jimmy Graham before facing Tennessee dud TEs duo last week. Heuerman draws a Rams defense that was flamed by Jared Cook for 180 yards in Week 1 but has also yielded 40+ yards to a TE in each of their past three games.

On the other side of the coin, I’ve got Trey Burton down at No. 13 compared to a No. 10 ECR thanks to Miami’s stingy defense. Burton isn’t seeing a ton of work in this offense to float his floor and the Dolphins have limited TEs to bottom-10 fantasy points thus far and have also done a good job against slot receivers. Both of these things go against Burton in a game that has seen its projected total drop from a 44-point open to 41.5 at some Vegas books. I’m also five or six slots lower on Geoff Swaim, Ricky Seals-Jones and Charles Clay. Dallas is too inconsistent for me, RSJ can’t get on the same page with Josh Rosen and Buffalo is Buffalo.

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