Week 8 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

6 years ago by Ben Rolfe

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At every position other than tight end we are seeing fairly consistent names appearing in the top-10/15/25. Outside of that we still have a lot of boom-or-bust players. This week I want to focus on how you can use the information below to make those agonizing decisions about the high-ceiling, low-floor players. For running back we probably have 15 consistent must-start running backs and that number appears to be growing a little. At receiver we have close to 25 guys and at quarterback we have a handful. Beyond that it is about playing the matchups. The best way to do this is to go and look at the fantasy points surrendered to a certain position by their opponents. Once you have a list of the ten worst against that position you can cross-check it with the COR and ceiling numbers below. That should tell you which of the borderline guys are worth starting in most leagues. If that does not work look at the next five teams and so on until you are happy with your decisions.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following week's waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of those players below.

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Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Patrick Mahomes	190.9	27.27	7.31	19.97	34.58	0.27	129.06
2	Cam Newton	136.8	22.8	5.18	17.61	27.98	0.23	123.08
3	Philip Rivers	142.2	20.32	4.06	16.26	24.37	0.2	122.1
4	Carson Wentz	104.2	20.84	4.48	16.36	25.32	0.22	117.73
5	Alex Smith	93.7	15.62	2.54	13.08	18.16	0.16	111.85
6	Aaron Rodgers	137	22.83	6.09	16.74	28.92	0.27	108.39
7	Kirk Cousins	150	21.43	7.22	14.21	28.64	0.34	85.02
8	Matt Ryan	168.1	24.01	9.51	14.5	33.51	0.4	84.65
9	Joe Flacco	121.8	17.4	4.57	12.83	21.97	0.26	83.6
10	Tom Brady	139.1	19.88	6.26	13.62	26.14	0.31	82.99
11	Russell Wilson	102.5	17.09	4.51	12.58	21.6	0.26	81.84
12	Andrew Luck	148.4	21.2	7.85	13.36	29.05	0.37	78.49
13	Ben Roethlisberger	127.1	21.19	8.95	12.24	30.14	0.42	71.35
14	Drew Brees	139.7	23.28	11.3	11.98	34.59	0.49	71.24
15	Matthew Stafford	105.8	17.63	6.16	11.47	23.79	0.35	68.1
16	Mitchell Trubisky	140.3	23.38	13.17	10.21	36.55	0.56	64.87
17	Ryan Fitzpatrick	100.4	25.11	16.39	8.72	41.5	0.65	63.59
18	Andy Dalton	120	17.14	6.59	10.55	23.73	0.38	61.73
19	CJ Beathard	68.5	17.12	6.81	10.31	23.93	0.4	60.13
20	Deshaun Watson	131.1	18.73	8.56	10.17	27.28	0.46	59.7
21	Eli Manning	104.3	14.91	5.08	9.82	19.99	0.34	58.64
22	Jared Goff	136.7	19.53	10.21	9.32	29.73	0.52	56.89
23	Jimmy Garoppolo	46	15.34	5.76	9.58	21.1	0.38	56.19
24	Baker Mayfield	73.8	14.77	5.47	9.29	20.24	0.37	54.61
25	Jameis Winston	59.5	19.83	12.36	7.48	32.19	0.62	51.67
26	Dak Prescott	116.3	16.61	7.94	8.68	24.55	0.48	51.38
27	Sam Darnold	92	13.14	5.22	7.92	18.36	0.4	46.23
28	Blake Bortles	117.2	16.75	9.89	6.85	26.64	0.59	45.1
29	Brock Osweiler	47.9	15.95	9.09	6.87	25.04	0.57	43.97
30	Case Keenum	96.5	13.79	6.34	7.45	20.13	0.46	43.79

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through three games from largest to smallest. At this stage of the season you are pretty much playing the matchups with anyone in the top-15. No one stands out as wrong being in there. Smith and Wilson have the lowest ceilings but in the right matchup both are startable options.

Trubisky is infuriating but he seems to be settling down a little bit. Th occasion got the best of him early last Sunday but he bounced back well in this game. Dalton and Beathard are only really options to use when your starter is on bye an they have favorable matchups. Both will have wild swings in output.

I want to touch on Blake Bortles quickly. He has been a startable fantasy asset in three weeks this year. Probably only one of them was truly predictable. No many were starting him Week 2 against the Patriots and the Jets game was also a questionable start. The only week he was a consensus start was against the Chiefs. Every year Bortles has put up wonderful fantasy numbers but they are always hard to predict. Save yourself the pain and do what the Jaguars should be doing and walk away!

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Todd Gurley	205.6	29.37	4.59	24.78	33.96	0.16	217.3
2	Saquon Barkley	182.5	26.07	5.86	20.22	31.93	0.22	142.16
3	Melvin Gordon	158.5	26.42	6.6	19.82	33.02	0.25	132.14
4	Christian McCaffrey	112.7	18.78	5.53	13.26	24.31	0.29	82.61
5	James White	145.9	20.84	7.96	12.88	28.8	0.38	75.43
6	Alvin Kamara	154.5	25.75	14.81	10.94	40.56	0.58	70.52
7	James Conner	139	23.17	11.72	11.44	34.89	0.51	68.95
8	Ezekiel Elliott	132.4	18.91	7.33	11.58	26.25	0.39	67.69
9	TJ Yeldon	121	17.29	6.74	10.55	24.03	0.39	61.62
10	Kareem Hunt	146.8	20.97	11.05	9.92	32.02	0.53	60.78
11	Joe Mixon	84.6	16.92	6.97	9.95	23.89	0.41	58
12	David Johnson	106.2	15.17	5.43	9.74	20.6	0.36	57.58
13	Tevin Coleman	83.7	11.96	3.88	8.08	15.83	0.32	48.85
14	Marshawn Lynch	79	13.17	4.92	8.24	18.09	0.37	48.39
15	Alex Collins	82.6	11.8	3.82	7.98	15.62	0.32	48.22
16	Kerryon Johnson	75.3	12.55	4.67	7.88	17.22	0.37	46.24
17	Austin Ekeler	92.8	13.26	5.33	7.93	18.59	0.4	46.24
18	Devonta Freeman	14.1	7.05	1.34	5.71	8.39	0.19	44.04
19	Phillip Lindsay	88.5	12.64	5.37	7.27	18.01	0.42	42.4
20	Tarik Cohen	102.2	17.03	11.52	5.51	28.56	0.68	42.21
21	Justin Jackson	4.6	2.3	0.14	2.16	2.44	0.06	39.71
22	Chris Thompson	62	15.5	10.12	5.38	25.62	0.65	39.23
23	Adrian Peterson	85.2	14.2	8.11	6.09	22.31	0.57	39.05
24	Lamar Miller	69.9	11.65	5.13	6.52	16.78	0.44	38.11
25	Carlos Hyde	77.1	12.85	6.83	6.02	19.68	0.53	37.02
26	Javorius Allen	78	11.14	5.29	5.85	16.43	0.47	34.61
27	Ito Smith	51.3	8.55	2.94	5.61	11.49	0.34	33.39
28	Kenyan Drake	91.2	13.03	8.79	4.24	21.82	0.67	32.34
29	Marlon Mack	45.8	15.27	13.84	1.43	29.1	0.91	32.11
30	Giovani Bernard	55.3	13.83	10.74	3.09	24.56	0.78	31.63
31	Jay Ajayi	43.4	10.85	5.69	5.16	16.54	0.52	31.55
32	Mark Ingram	27.5	13.75	10.68	3.07	24.43	0.78	31.46
33	Jordan Howard	62.8	10.47	5.24	5.22	15.71	0.5	31.35
34	Sony Michel	73.3	12.22	7.95	4.26	20.17	0.65	30.98
35	Matt Breida	82.5	11.79	7.34	4.45	19.13	0.62	30.71
36	Nyheim Hines	85	12.14	8.01	4.13	20.15	0.66	30.55
37	Isaiah Crowell	93.8	13.4	10.48	2.92	23.88	0.78	30.53
38	Dion Lewis	82.6	11.8	7.79	4.01	19.59	0.66	29.67
39	Royce Freeman	61	8.71	3.64	5.07	12.36	0.42	29.56
40	Jalen Richard	59.5	9.92	5.73	4.19	15.65	0.58	27.08
41	Chris Carson	53.3	10.66	6.98	3.68	17.64	0.66	26.93
42	Ty Montgomery	46.6	7.77	3.33	4.44	11.09	0.43	25.9
43	Theo Riddick	39.8	7.96	3.54	4.42	11.5	0.44	25.87
44	Corey Clement	52.7	10.54	7.28	3.26	17.82	0.69	25.79
45	Wendell Smallwood	58.4	9.73	5.91	3.82	15.64	0.61	25.76
46	Bilal Powell	62.3	8.9	4.93	3.97	13.83	0.55	24.97
47	Dalvin Cook	29.5	9.83	7.01	2.83	16.84	0.71	23.64
48	Aaron Jones	32.9	8.23	4.9	3.32	13.13	0.6	22.02
49	Latavius Murray	70.7	10.1	8.78	1.32	18.88	0.87	21.72
50	Leonard Fournette	13	6.5	2.83	3.67	9.33	0.44	21.44

With Sony Michel now also injured it is time to believe in White. His role seems fixed in that offense and he may even see an increased number of carries this week. Tevin Coleman might be the most infuriating name in the top-15. Last week two long rushes and touchdown saved him from an abject day. He is on a bye this week but if I can trade him away in a package deal I am absolutely doing it. I do not want that headache on my hands.

Kerryon Johnson has carved himself out a role with how effective he has been with the Lions. There will still be frustrating weeks when Blount steals a touchdown or Theo Riddick sees some extra receptions but generally Johnson should be started as a RB2 going forward.

I want to see how the time shares work themselves out for Hyde this week but I think there is a good chance he could be a really nice start of he can see 60-75% of the carries over the next few weeks. A name you will notice is missing here is Nick Chubb. If we started his consistency rating from last week going forward I expect him to look pretty good in five weeks time. I laid out my reasons for thinking that here. Marlon Mack is another name low on this list that I am starting anytime he is healthy and set to be active for the Colts.

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Adam Thielen	180.2	25.74	4.83	20.91	30.57	0.19	162.96
2	Julian Edelman	46.4	15.47	2.51	12.96	17.98	0.16	110.75
3	Geronimo Allison	59.9	14.98	2.35	12.63	17.32	0.16	110.52
4	Antonio Brown	123.8	20.63	4.88	15.75	25.52	0.24	107.8
5	Davante Adams	138.7	23.12	7.38	15.74	30.5	0.32	95.51
6	DeAndre Hopkins	146	20.86	6.44	14.42	27.29	0.31	88.45
7	Curtis Samuel	21.2	10.6	1.56	9.04	12.16	0.15	82.83
8	AJ Green	138.1	19.73	6.44	13.29	26.17	0.33	80.15
9	TY Hilton	80.9	16.18	4.2	11.98	20.38	0.26	78.5
10	Emmanuel Sanders	136.6	19.51	6.49	13.02	26.01	0.33	78.15
11	Tyler Lockett	90.8	15.13	3.78	11.35	18.92	0.25	75.66
12	Mike Evans	121.1	20.18	7.52	12.67	27.7	0.37	74.37
13	Julio Jones	138.2	19.74	7.17	12.58	26.91	0.36	74.14
14	Michael Thomas	137.8	22.97	12.06	10.91	35.03	0.53	66.7
15	Juju Smith-Schuster	110.1	18.35	7.27	11.08	25.62	0.4	64.69
16	Brandin Cooks	104.2	17.37	6.5	10.86	23.87	0.37	63.73
17	Alshon Jeffery	82.6	20.65	9.92	10.73	30.57	0.48	63.64
18	Odell Beckham Jr	133.7	19.1	8.38	10.72	27.48	0.44	62.64
19	Tyreek Hill	154	22	11.94	10.06	33.94	0.54	62.53
20	Deandre Carter	4.1	2.05	0.07	1.98	2.12	0.03	61.48
21	Robert Woods	130.2	18.6	8.1	10.5	26.7	0.44	61.32
22	Willie Snead	77.9	11.13	2.48	8.64	13.61	0.22	60.98
23	Kenny Golladay	93.5	15.58	5.87	9.72	21.45	0.38	56.97
24	Golden Tate	107.6	17.93	8.63	9.3	26.57	0.48	55.18
25	Keenan Allen	102.2	14.6	5.41	9.19	20.01	0.37	54.02
26	Devin Funchess	89.4	14.9	5.94	8.96	20.84	0.4	52.25
27	DeSean Jackson	104.1	17.35	8.75	8.6	26.1	0.5	51.77
28	Paul Richardson	49.4	9.88	2.41	7.47	12.29	0.24	50.32
29	Michael Crabtree	91.9	13.13	4.69	8.44	17.82	0.36	49.89
30	Chris Godwin	81.8	13.63	5.28	8.35	18.92	0.39	48.82
31	Stefon Diggs	122.4	17.49	9.81	7.68	27.29	0.56	48.66
32	John Brown	108.2	15.46	7.26	8.2	22.72	0.47	48.37
33	Darius Jennings	4.9	1.63	0.06	1.58	1.69	0.04	47.84
34	Tyler Boyd	113.7	16.24	8.96	7.28	25.2	0.55	45.69
35	Cooper Kupp	106.3	17.72	11.78	5.94	29.49	0.66	44.37
36	Jarvis Landry	106.9	15.27	8.44	6.84	23.71	0.55	42.92
37	Demaryius Thomas	89.2	12.74	5.71	7.03	18.45	0.45	41.19
38	Sterling Shepard	101.8	14.54	8.1	6.44	22.64	0.56	40.65
39	Marvin Jones	65	10.83	4.23	6.61	15.06	0.39	38.59
40	Will Fuller	84.9	14.15	8.55	5.6	22.7	0.6	37.57
41	Allen Robinson	69.5	11.58	5.17	6.41	16.76	0.45	37.51
42	Josh Gordon	53.1	10.62	4.51	6.11	15.13	0.42	35.61
43	Josh Gordon	53.1	10.62	4.51	6.11	15.13	0.42	35.61
44	Cameron Meredith	26.4	8.8	3.01	5.79	11.81	0.34	34.51
45	Dede Westbrook	84	12	6.41	5.59	18.41	0.53	34.46
46	Nelson Agholor	79.1	11.3	5.69	5.61	16.99	0.5	33.75
47	Ryan Grant	59	9.83	4.07	5.76	13.9	0.41	33.59
48	Taylor Gabriel	79.5	13.25	9.17	4.08	22.42	0.69	32.4
49	Tyrell Williams	88.3	12.61	8.24	4.37	20.86	0.65	31.92
50	Calvin Ridley	104.5	14.93	13.21	1.72	28.14	0.89	31.79

I am interested to see Curtis Samuel pop into the top-10 this week. He has had touchdowns each of the last two weeks but only has five touches on the season. He is a name to monitor going forward to see if they continue to use him creatively. He is probably the only name in the top-15 that really stand out as being out of place.

Kenny Golladay had quite a big fall this week after a tough outing against the Dophins. This is a case where the numbers lie a little bit as Golladay had a touchdown reception called back on a holding penalty. If that touchdown stands he would be a lot higher in these ratings. However, we are seeing the effect of a three receiver offense on the Lions receivers. Tate is doing fine, averaging six receptions per game but Jones is averaging just three receptions per game and that is reflected in his ranking at 39.

Outside of the anomalies int he top-25 (Samuel and Carter) all of those guys are pretty much must-start when active. Beyond that you are looking at matchup dependent guys. In these situations you should combine their ceiling projections with the average points conceded against that position by their opponents to get a feel for who to start.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Total	Avg	Std. Dev	Floor	Ceiling	CV%	COR
1	Zach Ertz	132.8	18.97	6.28	12.69	25.25	0.33	76.26
2	Eric Ebron	108.7	15.53	7.69	7.83	23.22	0.5	46.87
3	Travis Kelce	112.3	16.04	8.78	7.26	24.82	0.55	45.36
4	George Kittle	99.7	14.24	7.67	6.58	21.91	0.54	40.7
5	Tyler Conklin	3.3	1.65	0.07	1.58	1.72	0.04	40.15
6	Michael Roberts	28.3	14.15	7.99	6.16	22.14	0.56	39.21
7	Kyle Rudolph	71.2	10.17	3.67	6.51	13.84	0.36	38.39
8	Jimmy Graham	67.9	11.32	4.8	6.52	16.12	0.42	37.99
9	Hakeem Valles	3.1	1.55	0.07	1.48	1.62	0.05	35.53
10	Trey Burton	82.5	13.75	9.05	4.7	22.8	0.66	34.65
11	Jordan Reed	56.8	9.47	3.91	5.56	13.37	0.41	32.41
12	OJ Howard	71.1	11.85	6.95	4.9	18.8	0.59	32.06
13	Greg Olsen	25.6	8.53	3.11	5.42	11.64	0.36	31.96
14	Rob Gronkowski	72.5	12.08	7.39	4.69	19.48	0.61	31.84
15	David Njoku	74.7	10.67	5.73	4.94	16.4	0.54	30.53
16	Jared Cook	84	14	11.86	2.14	25.86	0.85	30.52
17	Tyler Eifert	38.9	9.73	4.65	5.07	14.38	0.48	30.05
18	Austin Hooper	78.1	11.16	7.36	3.8	18.51	0.66	28.08
19	Vance McDonald	53.4	10.68	7.57	3.11	18.25	0.71	25.76
20	Nick O'Leary	20.2	10.1	6.79	3.31	16.89	0.67	25.13
21	Geoff Swaim	45.5	7.58	3.4	4.18	10.98	0.45	24.5
22	Benjamin Watson	52	8.67	4.81	3.85	13.48	0.56	24.27
23	Cameron Brate	39.1	7.82	5.04	2.78	12.86	0.64	19.96
24	Jack Doyle	17	8.5	6.36	2.14	14.86	0.75	19.85
25	Demetrius Harris	27.4	6.85	3.65	3.2	10.5	0.53	19.71
26	Mark Andrews	42.3	6.04	2.95	3.09	9	0.49	18.41
27	CJ Uzomah	47.4	6.77	3.96	2.81	10.73	0.58	18.36
28	Will Dissly	35.6	8.9	8.98	-0.08	17.88	1.01	17.72
29	Chris Herndon	40.5	8.1	6.88	1.22	14.98	0.85	17.64
30	Ricky Seals-Jones	45.4	6.49	3.93	2.55	10.42	0.61	17.18

Ahhhh the position where consistency goes to pot. This is the only position where not one single player has a COR over 100. We have some very good players in here but the position is just inherently variable making it tough to even trust players previously deemed studs. This is a true streaming position where you perhaps need to look at matchups and ceiling more than consistency.

If Jack Doyle is active this week then that should be the start of his climb back up the rankings. Doyle was really good until fumbling in Week 1, but was then limited in Week 2 and we have not seen him since. Uzomah and Seals-Jones were frustrating last week but I think they are worth trusting again this week in deeper leagues.