RADIO
A few weeks ago, we put out my hugely popular column, ‘Berating You Softly.’ That column was so popular that several hundred-thousand readers sent me Thank-You letters for my inspirational writing, while a number of you emailed me your heartwarming videos about how I turned your lives around. Heck, I am currently engaged in some very spirited talks over the movie rights to my column, with the talented Ryan Reynolds attached to play a certain dashing fantasy football genius… but that’s beside the point.
The point is that in our incredibly popular ‘Berating’ segment, we quietly counseled you to hold on to injured defensive studs like Budda Baker. We warned you that, despite the burden they may carry on your bench in a crazy 2020 season, players like Baker are precious in IDP.
Almost one week after that article was published, Baker went on a fantasy tear that culminated in an almost 24 point performance in Standard IDP scoring last night. I would hazard that the millions of you who read my ‘Berating’ column benefited from that Baker blow up, but some of you didn’t.
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Dead Weight You Can Drop
While Baker's big turnaround is proof you should hold onto IDP superstars through a short-term injury, the opposite can be said of some other big-name defenders. Sometimes you don't want to hold onto big names in IDP leagues, and you want to cut the dead weight, instead. So that’s where we are going to focus our time this week. Instead of telling you what damaged goods you should hold onto like we did in our ‘Berating’ column, today we will tell you which defenders you can feel comfortable dropping.
Cory Littleton, Las Vegas Raiders: Littleton was an IDP stud in 2018 and 2019. He was pegged to be one in 2020, too, but he isn’t. Without Aaron Donald playing in front of him, Littleton has accumulated none of the big plays that we have come to expect from him. This year he has zero sacks, INTs, or PDs. That lack of big plays is concerning, but it isn't the only area in which Littleton struggles this season. So far this year, Littleton is on pace for just 93.28 total tackles. That’s more than 30 tackles short of his totals in either 2018 or 2019.
While you can hold onto him in Deep Defense leagues and 12-team dynasties, Littleton doesn't get you the big plays you need in Defense Premium leagues. He isn't getting you the tackle totals to be worth a Standard league start, either. Feel free to drop him in all but the deepest of IDP setups if you need the roster space.
Chandler Jones, Arizona Cardinals: Jones is done for the season, and he has been done for over a week now. That’s what makes his 17% roster rate is a bit puzzling. Sure, some in deep dynasty leagues are holding onto the former NFL sack leader in hopes he turns it around next year, but there was little about his 2020 performance before this injury to suggest he is worth holding on your bench with a full your of IR designation. That space would be better served on someone else unless you have a surprisingly deep bench and several IR spots.
Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings: Hunter can still be rostered in your deeper dynasty leagues. I have no issue with that. He is still young, and he is a superstar when healthy. While there may be concerns about his contract and neck surgery, if you have a lot of room on your bench or lots of IR slots in Dynasty, go ahead and keep him.
Outside of dynasty or keeper setups, drop Hunter now. He is out for the season with a severe neck injury, and he isn't coming back to your redraft team. Cut bait now if you are in redrafts or if you are in a shallow dynasty league. Hunter should not still be rostered in 25% of all IDP leagues.
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Steelers: The former Dolphin and ‘Bama star had one big play in Week 6, returning an interception for a touchdown. That’s about all he has done for fantasy managers in 2020, though. Beyond his one INT that turned into a TD, Fitzpatrick is averaging less than three solo-tackles per game, and he has no other big plays. He has only one PD (from the interception) all season, a concerning start for a DB, and any fantasy manager in a league that rewards points for PDs.
Fitzpatrick’s lack of turnovers and tackles spells a low floor and a very volatile ceiling in fantasy. There are much better options out there at DB who are rostered less than this guy, so his 16% roster rate is far too high.
Conclusion: Look hard if you have any of these players. If you do, be honest with yourself about whether they are better options than some lesser-known names available on your waiver list.
P.S. Thank you AGAIN for finally rostering Jeremy Chinn in over 25% of IDP leagues!
IDP Settings
As a reminder, we will use the following IDP designations/league settings for our FAAB recommendations:
- Standard Scoring Leagues: This system usually rewards 1-point per tackle, 3-points per sack, 4-points per turnover, and sometimes offers 2-points for a tackle for loss (TFL) or pass deflection (PD). Standard leagues also usually only start one DL, LB, and DB, respectively. You will always prioritize your FAAB budget towards offensive players in Standard Scoring IDP leagues, though you shouldn't underestimate the value of adding a great defender in them.
- Defense Premium Leagues: Defense Premium leagues tend to try to make defensive players worth as much as offensive players. Commissioners often accomplish this by rewarding 2-points per tackle, 3-points for TFL or PDs, 4-points per sack, and 6-points per turnover. In these leagues, you don't necessarily prioritize offensive players on waivers. While it is a case-by-case analysis, defenders in these leagues can often be worth as much as most offensive waiver additions.
- Deep Defense Leagues: These are leagues that have you start a full defense, or require you to start CBs and DTs, or they are leagues so deep (think 16 team leagues) that at least 32 players at each position (DL, LB, and DB) start every week.
- Dynasty Leagues: This is self-explanatory to most. Dynasty leagues are those in which every player you draft/add is on your team until you trade or release him.
Now that we have that explanation out of the way, let's get to this week's top adds! Remember that we will only address defenders who are rostered in less than 30% of IDP leagues on ESPN, Yahoo, or other prominent sites. We will also do our best to avoid obvious additions. While players like Myles Garrett are somehow rostered in only 31% of ESPN IDP leagues, we assume that anyone reading this material knows to add Garrett if they can.
Waiver Adds of the Week
1. Chase Young, DL, Washington Football Team
For the third week in a row, the top overall talent from the 2020 NFL Draft makes our list. He continues to be rostered in only 23% of IDP leagues, which is still low enough to qualify for our list, so you will continue to hear about him.
While Young didn't blow us away with a massive performance against a subpar Dallas offensive line this past week, he did turn in a deceptively nice performance. Young showed well against the run in particular, notching three outright stops (i.e., stopping the run for negative or no gain). That’s promising, considering Young’s biggest “weakness” coming out of Ohio State was in run support. Add to that the four hurries he had against Dallas, as well as the five solo tackles and one TFL, and you have an excellent performance for Young despite the lack of sacks. The rookie will continue to be a high upside play for all IDP managers, and he should be rostered in all leagues.
Standard Scoring FAAB: 2%
Defense Premium FAAB: 3%
Deep Defense FAAB: 5%
Dynasty FAAB: 5%
2. Yannick Ngakoue, DL, Baltimore Ravens
In last week’s IDP Rankings article, I already covered how Ngakoue’s trade to Baltimore could impact his fantasy outlook this season. I also addressed the possible impact he could have on the fantasy stats of Patrick Queen on Twitter if you are so inclined to check that out. So there isn’t much more we can say about that trade, other than the 7% of Ngakoue managers who dropped him this past week made a mistake.
The Maryland native sits tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks coming out of his BYE. That number will grow now that he has All-Pro help in the secondary and a better shot at playing with the lead in Baltimore. Chandler Jones, who is out for the year, is currently rostered in more leagues than Ngakoue. That shouldn’t be the case.
Standard League FAAB: 2%
Defense Premium FAAB: 2%
Deep Defense FAAB: 3%
Dynasty FAAB: 1%
3. Montez Sweat, DL, Washington Football Team
Another Washington defensive lineman makes our list here, showing just how talented and formidable this front can be. There is only so much an opposing offensive line against guys like Chase Young or Sweat when the defense can also bring guys like Jonathan Allen and Ryan Kerrigan. This overwhelming level of depth has allowed Sweat to collect five sacks, nine TFLs, and two FFs so far this season. He is a good add-in 12-team dynasty leagues, 12-team Defense Premium leagues, and in all Deep Defense setups.
Defense Premium FAAB: Wait
Deep Defense FAAB: 3%
Dynasty FAAB: 2%
4. Avery Williamson, LB, New York Jets
Someone has to make tackles for the Jets, and Williamson seems to be that guy, at least in 2020. Over the past three weeks, Williamson has averaged nearly 11 tackles per game, and he has added one interception as well. Out of the six games he has played this year, Williamson has been a fantasy starter in four.
Consider adding Williamson in 12-team tackle premium leagues and Deep Defense leagues. He carries a little less value in Defense Premium scoring and Dynasty, though.
Standard League FAAB: Wait
Defense Premium FAAB: Wait
Deep Defense FAAB: 2%
Dynasty: Wait
5. Josh Jones, DB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jones isn't a big name, nor is he a big-play guy. What he is, however, is a consistent tackle threat at the back end of the Jaguars’ defense.
Jones has totaled eight or more tackles in every game that he has been healthy this season, except one. That’s a terrific floor in Standard scoring IDP leagues, and it is one we can expect him to continue thanks to his role as a safety valve for a leaky defense. Jones is young and consistent enough to merit consideration in dynasty leagues, as well. Fade him a bit in Defense Premium formats, though.
Standard League FAAB: Wait
Deep Defense FAAB: 3%
Dynasty FAAB: Wait
6. Carlton Davis, DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Davis continues to be undervalued in fantasy circles, despite being the rare CB worth starting in all IDP formats. Though he has been playing hurt the past few weeks, Davis has shown an incredible fantasy floor of three solo-tackles and one PD.
Davis is barely rostered in more leagues than Mikah Fitzpatrick, despite Davis putting up a more impressive fantasy performance than Fitzpatrick almost every single week. Pick him up, please?
Standard Scoring FAAB: 2%
Defense Premium FAAB: 8%
Deep Defense FAAB: 8%
Dynasty: 2%
7. Jeffery Simmons, DL, Tennessee Titans
Simmons has made multiple appearances on this list, but he has a truly special matchup this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati throws the ball more than anyone in the NFL right now, and they have allowed the second-most sacks in the league so far. Their offensive line is also tied for worst in Adjusted Sack Rate this year, according to Football Outsiders. That spells ample opportunities for Titans pass-rushers.
While Simmons is still a very nice long term add for those in dynasty leagues and Deep Defense setups, he is a terrific spot start for any IDP managers looking for a Week 8 replacement lineman. Expect to see both Simmons and teammate Harold Landry III featured prominently in our Week 8 ranks.
Standard FAAB: 1%
Deep Defense FAAB: 3%
Dynasty FAAB: 2%
8. Quinnen Williams, DL, New York Jets
Williams has vastly improved his play this season over last, finally showing flashes of what got him drafted third overall in the 2019 NFL Draft. He has three different games this season in which he was a startable fantasy DT, which isn’t bad coming from a 22-year-old playing on a truly awful Jets defensive front. However, what makes Williams an exciting fantasy prospect, are the rumors that he could be traded before this year’s trade deadline.
If Williams were traded to any other team, his potential for fantasy points would likely rise. Williams is worth rostering in deep Dynasty and Deep Defense leagues thanks to his current performance and the possibility he could find a lot of help on a more talented team.
Deep Defense FAAB: Wait
Dynasty FAAB: Wait
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