Week 9 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

Greetings, and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings on the projector and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). My hope is to help you understand why I’m significantly higher or lower on players than the expert crowd. Do note that the ECR will shift!

Who am I and why should you care? I was the ninth-most accurate in-season expert on FantasyPros (out of 125) last season and sit at 35th (out of 130) so far in ‘18. You deserve the best and I want to be among the sharpest out there -- anyone can have a good week, but I'm going on two strong seasons now. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, as the overall and flex tabs can simply get insane. I focus on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough chit-chat, let’s get to it.

Week 9 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Up top, I have Drew Brees at No. 5 against a No. 7 ECR grade, while Matt Ryan (8 vs. 10) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (9 vs. 11) also sneak inside my top-10. To make things simple, Ryan and Fitzpatrick QB offenses that throw the ball nearly 65% of the time, making them top-eight passing teams capable of putting up QB1 numbers. I have to respect the ceilings.

It’s also worth mentioning that I have Dak Prescott, now with a legitimate No. 1 WR (sorry, Allen Hurns truthers), at No. 16 against a 20 ECR. I know the offense will still go through Ezekiel Elliott and Tennessee’s defense is strong, but Prescott appears to have remembered he can run and the mere presence of Cooper on the field could open the middle up for Cole Beasley and Geoff Swaim. He’s yet to throw for more than two passing TDs in a game, but 149 rushing yards and two ground TDs in his last three contests gives him a healthier floor.

I have Russell Wilson at 11 (ECR: 8) because he’s got a 2017 Deshaun Watson-esque TD rate buoying his stats. The man is barely having to throw anymore, and it’s not because he’s tucking it to run. Seattle is the only team in the NFL that’s throwing the ball less than 50% of the time in 2018 (47.76%), which gets more dramatic if you hone in on recent games. Their last three games have seen a 37.29% passing rate, which dropped to 31.15% against Detroit in Week 8. It’s hard to argue with their RB stable and defense combination, but I’m wary of relying on long TDs here -- especially with Doug Baldwin down a step.

Week 9 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Look for Kenyan Drake (16 vs. 19) to dominate the Jets in Week 9, as Miami’s offensive line has an adjusted line yard tally of 4.62 (10th-best in NFL). The biggest hindrance to Drake is lack of big volume, but the last three weeks have been an improvement with touches despite Miami’s sad 29.47 seconds per play (30th in the NFL), which does jump a bit to 28.79 seconds with a lead of seven points or more (14th). While the Dolphins are favored by just three with Brock Osweiler at the helm, I have the Jets and their terrible offensive line, hurt skill-player pool and rookie QB losing handily on the road.

I have both Falcons RBs above the ECR, as Tevin Coleman (17 vs. 20) and Ito Smith (28 vs. 33) are set to work against a Washington defense that ranks 22nd in rush DVOA per FootballOutsiders. I know Atlanta’s offensive line is nothing special either, but Washington’s run defense is far worse than their secondary and I find it probable that the Falcons use their RB duo to control the game.

Those on my bad side are the Bears RBs, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, who have to deal a Buffalo defense that held Tom Brady’s offense to one touchdown in Week 8. I do believe the Bears easily win, but I’m legitimately concerned that the defense swipes a TD or two (like NE’s did) and that Chicago won’t have to press things in an ugly game with a 37.5 projected total from Vegas.

On the other side of that game stands LeSean McCoy (33 vs. 29), who I simply don’t want to be attached to my team. Those in PPR formats can pray for enough screen passes from Nathan Peterman as Buffalo looks to get the ball out of his hands quickly, but standard-leaguers will be lucky to approach 100 total yards.

Another RB getting knocked down four spots is Peyton Barber (34 vs. 30), who has a tough date with Carolina’s seventh-ranked defensive line at 3.89 adjusted line yards that only gets tougher considering he runs behind a Tampa Bay O-line with the fourth-worst 3.55 ALY. The Bucs are underdogs by 6.5 points and their 64.8% passing-play rate is the eighth-highest in the league, meaning I’ll be fading this Barber.

Week 9 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

I’m sure the +7 on Tyreek Hill is others baking in the potential injury who haven’t updated yet, right? We can’t be putting Hill outside of the top-10 just because the Chiefs are set to stomp on the Browns because they’re still good for 30+ points even if the opponent is out of it by the third quarter.

Anyway, others that sit higher are Calvin Ridley (28 vs. 33), Tre’Quan Smith (30 vs. 35) and I’m still in on Geronimo Allison (35 vs. 40). It’ll take more than one week for me to assume that Marquez Valdes-Scantling is Green Bay’s actual No. 2 WR.

Many will target Marquise Goodwin (41 vs. 30) against a reeling Raiders squad that has the perception of being “Cleveland lite”. The Raiders actually haven’t given up a 100-yard game to a receiver in 2018 and Goodwin is coming off of a one-catch game in Week 8. Admittedly, he took the one catch and stretched it into a 55-yard touchdown, but that’s not fun to lean on. At least C.J. Beathard is trending towards playing on TNF, but his range of outcomes

Someone I’m lower on that’s on the WR3/flex fringe is Tyrell Williams (43 vs. 38), as he’s riding a hyperefficient high on no more than five targets per game on a team whose pace of play is the slowest in the NFL (30.62 seconds per play, no other team is above 30 seconds). Same goes for Mike Williams (46 vs. 41). I’d reassess this if Melvin Gordon was confirmed out, but a limited practice on Wednesday for the star RB bodes well for his availability in Week 9.

Week 9 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

The most notable booster is Jordan Reed (8 vs. 10), who has become quite polarizing in 2018. He caught 7-of-12 targets for 38 yards and no touchdowns in an odd Week 8 line and now has a 29-306-1 line in ‘18. While Washington is getting healthier around him, Reed remains their best red zone option in the passing game and they’re going to need to keep up with a potent Atlanta offense. I don’t think Alex Smith will be able to manage his way to win in this one. Oh, and I’m all aboard the Ed Dickson train (15 vs. 21), as we’ve seen Nick Vannett already get outshined by Will Dissly and now Dickson. Just because I have Wilson lower doesn’t mean I think he stinks and won’t produce!

On the other side of things, I have Austin Hooper outside of my top-12 (14 vs. 12), Chris Herndon down to 20 (ECR: 15) and Charles Clay in unplayable territory (25 vs. 16). Clay hasn’t topped four receptions, 40 yards or found the endzone yet. And now you want me to suddenly think that’s changing with Nathan Peterman and/or Matt Barkley at the helm? Nah. Herndon falls into a similar vein with my fading the Jets offense, but he also combines the fear of leaning on low-target TD games from the WR section. Hooper probably isn’t getting benched by you, but Washington adds HaHa Clinton-Dix to go alongside the third-best coverage safety per PFF in D.J. Swearinger Sr.

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