Week 9 IDP Ranks, Streamers, & NFL Trade Analysis

Welcome back RotoBallers to another week of my IDP rankings and analysis for fantasy football leagues!

The NFL's trade deadline is done, and conveniently for us, there were more relevant defenders on the move than offensive players. Such defensive activity gives us a prime opportunity to analyze these trades, and how they impact our quaint little IDP game. So let's do just that right now, shall we?

A look at this list tells you how slow the trade deadline was this year. While there are several relevant defenders here, that lack of star power is a stark reminder of how the NFL’s trade deadline tends to be much slower than those in the NBA and MLB.

Trade Deadline Analysis

Kwon Alexander to the Saints: Alexander is currently hurt, so his fantasy stock stays stagnant until he gets healthy. Once he is healed, his fantasy value will largely be determined by how the Saints choose to use him.

The Saints are one of the most nickel heavy teams in the league, and Demario Davis’ role in the defense is pretty well settled. That means Alexander won’t see the field much until he steals Alex Anzalone’s role on this team. Alexander has the talent to overtake Anzalone, and he should do so eventually, but that may not happen until the Saints are sure Alexander is healthy and well versed in their defense. If Alexander can steal Anzalone’s snaps quickly, he should see an increase in fantasy value thanks to the Saints’ pass-heavy opponents and his coverage skills.

Fantasy Stock: Up

Everson Griffen to the Lions: In Dallas, Griffen was part of a talented defensive end rotation with Aldon Smith and Demarcus Lawrence. This timeshare kept Griffen’s snap percentage continuously below 60%, but it also kept him fresh and playing with pass rushers who helped him get pressure. Thanks to Detroit's lack of defensive line talent, expect Griffen’s playing time to rise above this number by Week 10, but also expect him to see fewer opportunities for big plays.

The primary fantasy concern for Griffen in Detroit is the fact that Detroit’s offense won’t score as frequently as Dallas did under Dak Prescott. Playing in more low scoring games than he did in Dallas should mean opponents will have to pass less, and Griffen will have fewer opportunities for sacks. Of additional concern is the fact that Trey Flowers is unlikely to get the same kind of pressure across from Griffen that Aldon Smith and Demarcus Lawrence got in Dallas. That means Griffen won’t see QBs being pushed his way as often, hurting his fantasy potential further.

Fantasy Stock: Down

Yannick Ngakoue to the Ravens: We have exhaustively covered the fantasy implications of Ngakoue going to Baltimore in past articles. However, for those who didn't read those write-ups, here is a quick breakdown of Ngakoue in Baltimore.

The positives are that Ngakoue will have a lot more help in the secondary as a Raven. Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith, and Chuck Clark should buy Ngakoue far more time to get after the passer this year. Additionally, Calais Campbell and Matthew Judon will also provide more pass rush help, which could help Ngakoue avoid double teams… but it could also eat into his totals.

The primary negative of this trade is that Ngakoue has to acclimate to a new defense and new teammates on the fly. It isn't always easy stepping into an already established defense, and it can take time to acclimate with guys who are already familiar with each other. That's likely why the Ravens gave Ngakoue only 34 snaps in his first game, even though he had been averaging 51.7 snaps per game in Minnesota.

We should expect Ngakoue’s usage and stats in Baltimore to rise soon. When they do, the Maryland product should return to being a top-ten fantasy DL, and he could knock on the door of the top-five weekly ranks more than once. For week and next Ngakoue should see his stock drop, however.

Fantasy Stock: Up Long Term/Down Short Term

Avery Williamson to the Steelers: While it may seem a given that Williamson’s stock is on the rise, as he joins one of the best defenses in the league, looks are not always what they seem. There are some advantages in this move, but there is also a serious risk that the trade could hurt Williamson’s fantasy floor.

The good of this situation is that Williamson is joining a much better unit than he played with in New York. Playing with players like T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward can inherently make one’s job easier. That advantage may not be enough to buoy Williamson’s fantasy value in Pittsburgh, however.

First amongst the concerns about Williamson in Pittsburgh are his poor coverage skills. If Williamson wants to get the same sort of snaps that he got in New York, he will have to get better in coverage because the Steelers defend against a lot more pass plays than the Jets ever did. If Williamson struggles in pass coverage, he could see his playing time diminish, since the Steelers don’t need to utilize him as a pass rusher.

Second amongst our concerns is the presence of Robert Spillane and Marcus Allen at LB in Pittsburgh. While the Steelers clearly wouldn’t have traded for Williamson if they felt Spillane and Allen were the sole answers at LB, both players have a role in this defense, particularly in coverage. Spillane even had a big game against Baltimore, and the Steelers seem to like him as a player. With the presence of these players, it doesn’t seem out of the question for Williamson to see only 60% of the plays in Pittsburgh, which would be a significant drop from his usage as a Jet.

If Williamson is asked to play against his strengths, this trade could see his fantasy stock tank. If Williamson is played to his strengths and away from his weaknesses, that still means he could see a decline in playing time and a decline in fantasy opportunities. Either way, his fantasy stock is down.

Fantasy Stock: Stock Down

Desmond King to the Titans: In terms of real football, the Titans got a steal when they traded a sixth-round pick for King. He is one of the better nickel corners in the league, still young, and a decent kick returner as well. The former Iowa Hawkeye should go a long way in shoring up this Tennessee pass defense. However, in terms of fantasy defense, we should not expect much of a change.

While King should see the field on most Tennessee snaps, just like he did as a Charger, he may see fewer targets as a result of the Titans’ heavy use of their clock draining running back (Derrick Henry). King is solid against both the run and the pass, so he should maintain four or five tackles per game as a Titan, but we shouldn’t expect him to become an elite fantasy CB all of a sudden.

Fantasy Stock: Stagnant

Markus Golden to the Cardinals: After popping as a 28-year-old pass rusher last season, the Giants inexplicably phased Golden out of their pass rush early in the year. The hope for fantasy managers is that a change of scenery, to the team on which Golden got 12.5 sacks in 2016, could spur this veteran’s fantasy value to rebound to last year’s levels. It is unlikely we see that kind of rally, though.

Golden was playing an average of just 24 snaps per game in New York, despite the team needing pass rush help, and that number isn’t going up in Arizona unless he beats out some very talented Cardinals linebackers. Arizona has an extremely deep LB corps, despite the loss of Chandler Jones, and that depth makes it extremely are that Golden sees the field as anything more than a rotational pass rusher.  While Golden could see an increase in sack rate in this role now that he plays with better teammates, he won’t see a rise in tackles or any other fantasy stats. That type of sack dependency means Golden’s fantasy value is the same as it was in New York.

Fantasy Stock: Stagnant

Carlos Dunlap to the Seahawks: The Bengals weren't using Dunlap much, with his snap percentage dipping below 50% in each of his final three games in Cincinnati. That number should rise in Seattle, giving him far more opportunities for fantasy points.

Despite his increased snap rate, there is reason to temper your expectations of Dunlap a little bit. While it may seem counterintuitive to say, Seattle's defensive line is actually less talented than the Bengals' unit. That means Dunlap could see more attention from offenses. However, Seattle is also far better coached on the defensive side of the ball than the Bengals are.

Playing in Pete Carroll’s scheme and seeing more snaps should more than make up for Dunlap joining a thinner defensive line. This trade clearly increases Dunlap’s fantasy relevance, making him a must add in deep redraft leagues.

Fantasy Stock: Stock Up

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Stephon Tuitt, Pittsburgh Steelers

Tuitt is a big but athletic five-tech who is typically a nice DL3 in most Deep Defense fantasy leagues. He is usually a reliable source of tackles and has the upside of a one or two-sack game in the right matchups. The Cowboys are the right matchup.

As a unit in 2020, the Dallas Cowboys have allowed 24 total sacks this season. Mind you, that figure includes multiple games where the mobile Dak Prescott and towering Tyron Smith were available for Dallas. The Cowboys are now starting their fourth or fifth string QB and are missing three of their five starting offensive linemen. With injuries, Dallas has allowed an average of five sacks per game over the past two weeks and 13 total sacks over the past three games.

All of Pittsburgh's pass rushers should take advantage of the Cowboys’ misfortune this week, including Tuitt. Tuitt shouldn’t be a sack dependent play, either. Dallas will likely look to establish the run before the game gets out of hand, and Tuitt is a competent run defender who should notch several tackles before pinning his ears back and rushing the passer late.

DL Fade of the Week: Yannick Ngakoue, Baltimore Ravens

Again, we must state that the short-term outlook for Ngakoue in Baltimore does not reflect his long-term outlook. With that said, Week 9 does not add up to be a good fantasy matchup for the new Raven.

As we stated already, the Ravens only gave Ngakoue 34 snaps last week, which was a severe decline from his 50+ snaps in Minnesota. While this number should go up, we cannot count on it going above the 50 mark in just his second game. The Maryland pass rusher is being eased into this defense, and he will likely see 40-45 snaps this coming Sunday.  To make matters worse, Ngakoue’s snaps will be coming against an offensive line that has allowed the least amount of sacks (eight) in the entire NFL.

We have said it before. The Colts' offensive line is one to avoid for IDP pass rushers. Indy's blockers are even more concerning when you have a DL on a snap count like Ngakoue is likely to be.

Defender to Watch Closely: Haason Reddick, Arizona Cardinals

Drafted initially as an inside thumper, Reddick has recently found his groove as a pass-rushing LB in Arizona. So far this season he has five sacks, with three of them coming in the absence of Chandler Jones. Such usage is a promising trend for fantasy purposes, especially considering Reddick's first-round pedigree. With his recent play, Reddick has been trending up.

With all of that said, there are some reasons to temper expectations for Reddick long term. While he should continue to show viability as a fantasy asset in deeper leagues, his spot as a top-20 option could be impacted by two things. One of those things is the acquisition of Markus Golden, who is a decent pass rusher and could eat into some of Reddick's snaps and pass-rushing opportunities. The second thing to worry about is the rookie, Isaiah Simmons. While Simmons has been the odd-man-out in this crowded LB room so far, there is a reason he was drafted as a top-ten pick in this year's Draft. The Cardinals will likely look to get him more involved as the season goes on, and that could cut into the snaps of all Cardinals linebackers, including Reddick. Start Reddick this week, but be aware his fantasy value could dip or fluctuate soon.

As a side note, shout out to @MyronIsaacs on Twitter for asking about the impact of Golden’s acquisition on Reddick’s fantasy value.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer of the Week:  Kenneth Murray, Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders run the ball over 55% of the time, and they aren’t particularly creative in doing so. This lack of creativity, and poor offensive line play, are why so many of Josh Jacobs’ runs go nowhere. The team runs the ball between the tackles on 81% of their rushes, and they often telegraph their intentions with their personnel packages and formations.

When tackle-dependent linebackers like Murray go against a run-heavy offense, it spells a favorable IDP matchup. When a team like the Raiders often telegraphs its rushing downs and where the run is going, that spells an even better situation. The only thing that could improve that situation more is if they heavily targeted their TE in the middle of the field… which the Raiders do. Overall, it's an ideal matchup for both Murray and Kyzir White, and they should both be upgraded accordingly.

LB Fade of the Week: Avery Williamson, Pittsburgh Steelers

On paper, Williamson has a pretty decent opportunity on his plate this week. He is going against an awful Dallas offense, and he is now playing with All-Pros around him rather than the… let's call them "teammates" that he had in New York. Both of those things should have Williamson as an IDP stud this week, right?

Not necessarily. Williamson has a couple of problems on his plate in Week 9, and both could cause his fantasy stock to dip.

First amongst Williamson's problems, as we have already discussed, is a possible decline in his bread and butter opportunities (run plays). Williamson is not particularly strong in coverage, and when Pittsburgh gets ahead early in this game, Dallas will be forced to pass. That could mean Williamson comes off the field in favor of Spillane and Allen at LB. If Williamson is off the field, he can’t score you fantasy points (cutting edge advice there).

The second problem this new Steeler faces is his opponent. While it is true that a matchup with the poor offense of Dallas is rich with big play opportunities, Williamson isn’t a big play guy. The players likely to get big plays against Dallas are pass rushers and corners, not inside linebackers. Guys like Williamson rely on volume of plays rather than sacks or interceptions, and volume will be a problem against Dallas’ horribly inefficient offense.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Jaquiski Tartt, San Francisco 49ers

Decimated by injuries, the 49ers will likely have to start adapting their schemes to disguise a lack of talent on their defensive line and at cornerback. One alteration we should expect is a continued increase in blitz packages. An increase in blitzes could help Tartt's fantasy opportunities, since he is an underrated pass rusher. The Samford graduate’s big and fast form has only been brought down on blitzes three times this season, but for his career Tartt has gotten pressure on over half of his blitz opportunities.

Expect Tartt to be busy against the Packers this week, in particular. Green Bay will want revenge for being embarrassed by San Francisco twice last year, and they should try to run the score up on San Francisco's backups. That means several opportunities for Tartt to rush the passer, break up passes, and bring down Devante Adams. Tartt is also capable against the run and should net you several tackles there as well.

DB Fade of the Week: Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens

If you have been relying on Humphrey as your starting fantasy CB, you’re starting him this week. However, if you can afford to bench him, you may want to think about it.

As we have noted in the past, DBs derive a lot of their fantasy value from target volume. Humphrey is unlikely go get many targets going against an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL in pass rate, though. To make matters worse, the Colts have no true target-hog at WR. That makes it easier for Indianapolis to avoid Humphrey all game, if they so choose.

A run-heavy offense with no clear WR for Humphrey to shadow spells low fantasy opportunities for a DB who usually ranks amongst the top-ten at his position. Fade him, but he should still be rostered in all leagues and played in deeper ones.

Underrated Play of the Week: Trayvon Mullen, Las Vegas Raiders

This week Mullen takes the field against a Chargers offense that has averaged 38 passing attempts per game since Justin Herbert took over at QB. During that time, Herbert has targeted receivers outside the hash-marks an average of 16.5 times per game. A high outside target rate is helpful to Mullen’s fantasy managers, since he lines up on the outside nearly 75% of the time.

Complicating our ability to project Mullen’s fantasy potential this week is the fact the Raiders do not typically use shadow coverage. However, Herbert doesn't tend to hone in on just one receiver the way Aaron Rodgers does Davante Adams. Instead, the Oregon QB likes to spread the ball around and he doesn’t shy away from taking risks with multiple outside receivers. That means we can expect Herbert to go deep on Mullen several times, regardless of who the second-year corner is covering. The Clemson alum should respond accordingly, notching several tackles and possibly a pick for your fantasy team.

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