When The Hype Train Derails

It begins innocently enough in the wintry depths of the offseason, with just a few industry scribes or regular folks in the fantasy community. Whispers of the next great hope, the prospect who was promised, the prodigal post-hype sleeper returned.

Whispers turn to murmurs in short order. Last season's exit velocity surges and spin rate increases give way to stories of new pitch grips and pounds of muscle added. Draft season kicks into gear, the murmurs now inescapable roars. The hype train gathers steam. It is, in the parlance of our times, in the best shape of its life.

We emerge from our drafts full of hope and hubris, having secured the services of our favorite somnambulant players. But then the games begin, the ones that really count for our fake baseball teams. The narratives we've spent half a year concocting are stress-tested. Some pass. Most don't. Alas and alack, not all sleepers wake.

The Perils of Hype

Our most prominent example in the early throes of the 2019 fantasy baseball season is, of course, Philadelphia Phillies Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs starting pitcher Nick Pivetta. Tabbed as one of the best breakout candidates in the game, the 26-year-old instead finds himself back at Triple-A after a horrendous four-start stretch to open the season. Over just 18.1 innings of work, Pivetta had more earned runs allowed (17) than strikeouts (16). He walked eight batters and gave up five home runs. His WHIP began with a two. The Phillies managed to win three of these four games anyway, but Pivetta pitched poorly enough that the team felt it would be better served by entrusting his spot in the rotation to Jerad Eickhoff.

That may well be the case - Eickhoff has been a solid MLB starter in the past, and looks healthy for the first time in a long while - but it's certainly a rude awakening for the man dubbed "America's Sleeper." When the offseason concluded, Pivetta had an NFBC ADP of 149, with a minimum of 106. Less than a month later, he's dead weight on your fantasy roster.

Pivetta, at least right now, is just the most recent example of a buzzy player failing to meet expectations. There's plenty of precedent one can cite to inspire hope for a turnaround; short stints in the minor leagues have helped many iron out the kinks and return to being productive major league pieces. He's also not the only so-called sleeper to have scuffled in the season's first few weeks, so what ails these men and whether or not these things can be fixed are matters for another time. As is our wont in this space, the specifics of the moment matter less than the macro view.

It's easy to get swept up in the moment, particularly when there's compelling data behind whatever narrative is taking hold. Reading through a few discussion threads on Pivetta's demotion, there are multiple incidences of fantasy owners bemoaning the "expert advice" that led them to invest in his services. Yet analysts are just as often cast in the role of wet blankets wrung out over the parade for a particular player, and there were plenty who expressed misgivings about Pivetta's draft price. Most hype trains have no shortage of conductors, and we all make decisions of our own volition.

And there were certainly reasons to believe in Pivetta. He'd racked up 188 strikeouts in 164 innings last season, improved his metrics pretty much across the board, and entered 2019 with a much better supporting cast in terms of both run support and defensive capabilities. All the necessary ingredients appeared to be at hand for him to take the next step. What we may have collectively failed to give more credence to is the slipshod command, a below-average fastball, and issues with approach and sequencing.

This is where we tend to get tripped up when it comes to betting on breakouts - at a certain point in the cycle, we're so zeroed in on the positives that we forget about, minimize, or outright dismiss the downside. This is hardly limited to fantasy baseball, naturally; it's the bedrock of bad decisions in all aspects of our lives.

When one hype train derails, just remember that another will be along shortly. Should you hop aboard? Maybe, maybe not. But you should certainly think carefully before you choose.

The Friday Meta is Kyle Bishop's attempt to go beyond the fantasy box score or simple strategic pointers and get at the philosophical and/or behavioral side of the game. It is hopefully not as absurd, pretentious, or absurdly pretentious as that sounds.

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