Wide Receivers Best-Ball Rankings and Analysis (Part 2)

Many of you who participate in best-ball leagues are planning to continue your involvement until the end of peak draft season. That is why the NFL team at RotoBaller will provide the resources you need to prepare for every remaining draft in this popular format. 

We will also deliver breakdowns of the latest tiered rankings following every update. That includes my two-part series that will examine the wide receiver position. This article will place the spotlight on tiers 4-9.

You can find part one with a full breakdown of tiers 1-3 here.

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Tier 4

Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson,  Adam Thielen 

I think Julio Jones going to surprise some people this year pic.twitter.com/XbqaO4U6fn

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 9, 2021

If you are apprehensive regarding Jones’ remaining ability to function as a WR2, it will be helpful to know that he would have finished sixth in receiving yards (1,371), and 11th in receptions (91) if he had sustained last year’s per-game averages throughout a 16-game schedule (5.7 receptions/85.7 yards). Prior to last season’s seven-game absence (hamstring), Jones had also accumulated 970 targets (161.6 per year), and 9,388 yards (1,564.6 per year).

After 10 years with Atlanta, he has resurfaced in Tennessee and will be operating within a passing attack that is lacking dynamic receiving weaponry beyond Jones and A.J. Brown. He will justify the current investment of a Round 5 selection (ADP 55/WR22) if he can evade lingering health issues.

Kupp led the Rams in receptions (92/6.1 per game), and receiving yards (974/64.9 per game) during 2020, while finishing third among all wide receivers in yards after catch (525). But his yardage declined by 197 yards when contrasted with 2019 (1,161), while his touchdown total also dropped significantly (3/10). However, LA’s decision to upgrade at quarterback should propel Kupp to output that exceeds last year’s yardage and touchdown totals.

Staff with the DART to @CooperKupp ? pic.twitter.com/bh3nXMQRf8

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) July 31, 2021

The Rams discarded Jared Goff, in order to secure Matthew Stafford, and the disparity between both signal-callers was discussed here. Stafford will launch downfield throws with greater frequency and accuracy than Goff, and Kupp is capable of achieving separation if he is deployed on deeper routes. He will also provide Stafford with a reliable inside presence.

Moore is just 24-years old but has already eclipsed 1,100 yards twice during his career.  That includes the 1,193 (79.5 per game) that he accumulated during 2020. That was his first year in Carolina’s reconstructed offense under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady. Moore also attained career-best numbers in yards per target (10.1), yards per reception (18.1), and aDOT (average depth of target-13.2), after averaging 9.2 yards per target, 13.9 yards per reception, and 10.1 aDOT in 2018-2019. His yards before catch per reception average also climbed to 12.3, after he had averaged 7.9 during his first two seasons. The departure of Curtis Samuel could compel Brady to deploy Moore on shorter routes, while he will join Christian McCaffrey and Robby Anderson as the primary weapons in Carolina's aerial attack.

Lockett has averaged 7.6 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 66 yards per game since 2019 while accumulating 18 touchdowns during that span. That includes his usage and production from Weeks 1-9 last season when he was 10th in targets (70/8.8 per game), eighth in receptions (53/6.6 per game), and fourth in touchdowns (7). The Seahawks’ increased reliance on their ground game limited Lockett to 6.9 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 49.9 yards per game from Weeks 10-16. However, Lockett is entrenched as Seattle’s WR2 behind Metcalf, with no discernible competitors to usurp his role. He can also function as a WR2 for fantasy managers if Pete Carroll will allow Russell Wilson to locate his most proficient weapons with frequency in offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s re-designed attack.

When they say “stop on a dime,” THIS is what they mean. (Also, this is why I continue to believe there is indeed magic in Diontae Johnson.) #Steelers pic.twitter.com/mbR9Z5ENOZ

— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) August 13, 2021

Johnson has led Pittsburgh in point per game scoring during 2019 and 2020, while also pacing the Steelers in targets during both seasons (92/144). He has also averaged 7.6 targets per game during the process, while only four receivers surpassed his average throughout 2020 (9.6). That average rose to a league-high 11.4 from Weeks 7-16, as Johnson also led the NFL with 114 targets during that span.

Johnson was also one of just three receivers to collect at least 10 targets in 10 different matchups. Neither the combined presence of Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster nor the looming involvement of Najee Harris should deter managers from selecting Johnson at his ADP (56/WR22).

Thielen finished at WR10 in scoring during 2020 and was ranked inside Football Outsiders’ top 10 in DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). However, his 16.9 point per game average was fueled by his career-high 14 touchdowns.

Adam Thielen WORKED for this touchdown ? @athielen19 @Vikings pic.twitter.com/R4J20z7rBX

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 27, 2020

Thielen capitalized on his usage inside the 20, as he finished third among all receivers in red zone targets (20). He was also third with 13 targets inside the 10, which is also where 10 of Thielen’s touchdowns were generated. It is difficult to ignore the lurking reality of touchdown regression. But Kirk Cousins should continue to locate Thielen near the goal line, while Thielen operates as Minnesota’s clear WR2. All of which provides incentive to secure Thielen during Round 5 of your drafts.

Tier 5

Kenny Golladay, Brandon Aiyuk, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., Tee Higgins

Golladay was being drafted as a WR1 during 2020 best-ball drafts (ADP 35/WR10). But enthusiasm for selecting Golladay had waned considerably during this year’s draft process (85/WR34) even before he encountered a hamstring issue. There are multiple reasons for concern surrounding Golladay’s ability to thrive in his new environment. His output will be largely dependent on Daniel Jones' ability to launch accurate throws to Golladay downfield, as Golladay enters Week 1 with an aDOT (average depth of target) of 13.9 during his career. Inadequacies along the offensive line and the alarming concept of Jason Garrett designing the Giants’ attack provide your rationale for avoiding Golladay until after Round 8.

Aiyuk paced the 49ers in multiple categories as a rookie (96 targets/60 receptions/748 receiving yards/ 5 receiving touchdowns), while averaging 8 targets, 5 receptions, and 62.3 yards per game. Those averages rose to 9.1 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 71.2 yards per game from Weeks 3-15, while he led all receivers in targets per game from Weeks 8-15 (12.4). There has been conjecture that Aiyuk could disappoint managers, due to concern that his favorable usage was generated while George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were sidelined. However, having the entire trio or receiving weapons in the lineup will also reduce the resources that are focused on neutralizing Aiyuk, as opposing defenses are required to account for all three players.

Chase led all wide receivers in yardage (1,780/127.1 per game), and touchdowns (20) during his sophomore year at LSU (2019). That propelled him to the prestigious Fred Biletnikoff Award, which is presented to the country's best receiver. Now, his Round 1 selection by Cincinnati has reunited Chase with Joe Burrow, who launched the passes that Chase captured during his exceptional season.

Ja'Marr Chase's first catch of the #NFLPreseason goes for 16 yards! @Real10jayy__ #CINvsTB pic.twitter.com/j2IrSfRXAg

— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2021

Managers have been incentivized to target him in Round 6 of current drafts (ADP 53/WR22), and Chase could easily emerge as the Bengals' most productive receiver. However, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are proven weapons who will remain heavily involved in the Bengals’ aerial attack.

Four years of recurrent absence and sporadic production have extracted much of the passion for selecting Beckham, as the three-time Pro-Bowler remains available until Round 6 of current drafts. He has been sidelined during 25 matchups since 2017, while his per game averages during that span (8.7 targets/5.2 receptions/69.4) have also declined considerably when compared to his averages from 2014-2016 (10.6 targets/6.7 receptions/96 yards). Beckham’s return could fuel a slight increase in Baker Mayfield’s passing attempts, But Beckham’s usage and output will not approach the levels that managers embraced during his first three seasons.

.@teehiggins5 working on his toe-drag swag. pic.twitter.com/SYc5u7oq3D

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) August 17, 2021

The prospects of Chase constructing a high-productive rookie season has not deterred managers from selecting Higgins during Round 5 in current drafts (ADPs 57). Higgins did average 7.1 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 69.9 yards per game with Burrow spearheading Cincinnati’s offense last season. Higgins’ per game averages would have resulted in season-long totals of 114 targets, 77 receptions, and 1,118 yards if those averages would have been sustained over 16 matchups. He should approach low-end WR2 status for managers, with the potential to exceed Chase’s eventual totals in targets and fantasy points.

Tier 6

Robby Anderson, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tyler Boyd.  Deebo Samuel, D.J. Chark, Will Fuller.  Chase Claypool, JuJu Smith-Schuster 

Anderson was fifth overall in targets, and third in both receptions, and receiving yardage entering Week 10, and he ultimately established new career highs in each category during his first season as a Panther (136 targets/8.5 per game), receptions (95 receptions/5.9 per game), receiving yards (1,096 yards /68.5 per game).

Anderson's expanded route tree under Matt Rhule and Joe Brady also propelled him to fourth in yards after catch (497). He will retain his critical role in Carolina’s passing attack, while benefitting from the impending reunion with Sam Darnold.

Jeudy’s rookie season contained a perplexing number of drops (12), and an unsightly 46% catch rate. However, those results were mixed with encouraging signs that Jeudy will eventually match the expectations of his Round 1 pedigree.

Jerry Jeudy (@jerryjeudy) absolutely BURNED his man for a long TD at Broncos-Vikings joint practice today ?? #9sports #BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/oGuJPbwU9c

— 9NEWS Sports Denver (@9NEWSSports) August 11, 2021

He also finished sixth overall in air yards (1,541), and 14th in yards before catch per reception. He is an exceptional route runner, and possesses the talent to ascend into stardom - if he operates with effective quarterback play.

Sutton seized Denver’s WR1 responsibilities in 2019, while finishing 15th in targets (125/7.8 per game) and eclipsing 1,100 yards (1,112/69.5 per game). He also finished second in percentage share of air yards (43.3%). But his 2020 regular season ended abruptly after just 31 snaps (ACL). He now re-emerges in a Bronco passing attack that contains the immensely talented Jeudy and an underwhelming situation at quarterback. This provides the rationale to consider other options prior to his Round 8 ADP.

Tyler Boyd: 51 catches of 15+ yards from the slot since 2018

Leads the NFL? pic.twitter.com/iClOEf9bJw

— PFF (@PFF) March 31, 2021

Boyd was on pace to assemble 139 targets (8.7 per game), and 1,136 yards (71 per game) before Burrow’s aforementioned knee issue. He was also 11th in targets (87), and 16th in yardage (710) entering Week 12, but his numbers plunged during six games with Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley under center. Boyd remains a dependable slot weapon. But his numbers will be constrained from sharing targets with Chase and Higgins.

Samuel was a logical candidate to function as San Francisco’s WR1 last season, based on his robust finish from Weeks 10-16 during 2019 (6.3 targets/4.3 receptions/67.6 yards per game). But multiple health issues (foot/hamstring) limited him to just seven matchups in 2020. This extended his history of health issues both collegiately and with the 49ers. Samuel can join Aiyuk in providing managers with a viable WR3 if he can elude further injuries.

Chark vaulted onto the landscape in 2019 (118 targets/7.9 per game), (1,008 yards/67.2 per game), (8  touchdowns. But he experienced a universal decline in his numbers during 2020 (93 targets/7.2 per game), (53 receptions/4.1 per game), (706 yards/54.3 per game), (8 touchdowns. The Jaguars offense will improve with Trevor Lawrence under center. But there is no guarantee that Chark will lead the Jaguars in targets, as Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones Jr.. and explosive rookie Travis Etienne will all siphon opportunities.

Fuller was constructing the best season of his career during 2020, before he became affixed to the sideline during Houston’s final six matchups (PED suspension). He had already exceeded his previous career-highs in receptions (53/4.8 per game), receiving yardage (879/79.9 per game), and first down receptions (38). He will resurface in Miami’s passing attack while sharing targets with Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki.

Big Ben going DEEP… @steelers rookie WR @ChaseClaypool’s first career touchdown is an 84-yarder! #HereWeGo

?: #DENvsPIT on CBS
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/gdttfTQjuY pic.twitter.com/RotSEeaTBs

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2020

Claypool was one of five rookies to eclipse 100 targets last season (109/6.8 per game), His 16.7% target share was also seventh among newcomers, although it was also just third on his own team (Diontae Johnson 22.9%/JuJu Smith-Schuster 19.7%). Claypool did lead Pittsburgh's trio of receiving weapons in aDOT (average depth of target - 13.2), and he remains an emerging talent. But the Steelers will not ask Ben Roethlisberger to launch 41 attempts per game again this season.

Smith-Schuster was 15th in targets (128/8 per game), fourth in red zone targets (19), and eighth in touchdowns (9). But his aDOT (average depth of target- 5.5), yards per reception (8.6), and yards per target average (6.5) were the lowest of his career. Smith-Schuster will encounter competition for targets from Johnson and Claypool once again. The arrival of Najee Harris also assures that the Steelers will increase their reliance on the ground game.

Tier 7

Curtis Samuel, DeVonta Smith, Brandin Cooks,  Laviska Shenault Jr., Michael Gallup, Michael Pittman Jr., Jarvis Landry, Marquise Brown 

Joe Brady's decision to increase Samuel's routes from the slot (65.7%/7.3 aDOT) helped Samuel assemble to career-best numbers (77 receptions/5.1 per game), (851 receiving yards/56.7 per game) last season with Carolina. Managers should hope that Samuel's reunion with Washington's offensive coordinator Scott Turner will compel Turner to adopt Brady's strategic approach.

The MCL sprain that Smith encountered delayed his involvement in team activities. But he is a dependable and fluid receiver, who will deliver respectable numbers while collecting passes from Jalen Hurts.

Not the first time these two have arrived to a game together@JalenHurts | @DeVontaSmith_6 pic.twitter.com/qCEEg9hoKi

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) August 12, 2021

Any reluctance toward including members of Houston’s talent-deficient offense is justified. However, Cooks will commandeer an enormous target share and has eclipsed 1,000 yards with four different franchises.

It is easy to envision the versatile Shenault finishing the year as Jacksonville’s most productive receiver. He led the Jaguars in receptions as a rookie (58/4.1 per game), and delivers enticing playmaking potential.

Gallup possesses the attributes to become a highly-productive weapon, and would elicit far more conversation if he were not contending with Lamb, and Cooper for opportunities.

Pittman’s production during 2020 failed to reach the level that was achieved by other members of his rookie class, But he should overtake T.Y. Hilton as the team leader in targets.

Landry averaged 7.6 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 59.1 yards per game during Beckham’s nine-game absence. Both receivers will function as Baker Mayfield’s primary receiving weapons.

Brown's hamstring injury has resulted in a protracted absence from camp. Increased competition for targets will also make it difficult for Brown to match his 2020 usage and output (6.3 targets/3.6 receptions/48.1 yards per game),

Tiers 8-9

Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, Corey Davis, DeVante Parker, Michael Thomas, Darnell Mooney, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Jones Jr., Henry Ruggs III, Elijah Moore,  T.Y. Hilton, Mecole Hardman, Jalen Reagor, Nelson Agholor, Rashod Bateman, Russell Gage, Sterling Shepard, Amon-Ra St. Brown 

The wide receivers in these tiers are located between WR45 and WR62 in our rankings. Various factors could develop before Week 1 that would alter the value of these players.

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