Wide Receiver Best-Ball Rankings and Analysis (Tier 1-3)

We have already persevered through the most uneventful weeks of the offseason, and have embraced the accelerated news cycle that was fueled by free agency and the NFL Draft. Each transformation of the fantasy landscape has compelled managers to expand their involvement in best-ball drafts, and this process has accelerated as we progress through the offseason.

The unwavering popularity of this format remains intact for multiple reasons. That includes the opportunity to complete all forms of roster management at the conclusion of each draft. However, that also makes it critical for you to assemble a team that can withstand the various challenges that emerge during the season since the best-ball format does not present the option of using a waiver wire.

That is why the team at RotoBaller continues to supply a non-stop arsenal of news, analysis, and tiered rankings to help you capture your best-ball leagues. We also provide breakdowns of our rankings after each update - including my two-part series that will examine the wide receiver position. This article will focus on Tiers 1-3, and you can find all of the latest rankings here.

WR Best-Ball Rankings

Tier 1

Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill,  Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf  

Most PPR points per game in a season among all WRs ever (min. 10 games)

1987 Jerry Rice (26.2)
1995 Rice (25.9)
2020 Davante Adams (25.6) ?

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 1, 2021

Fantasy managers had consistently selected Adams before any other wide receiver during the initial months of the offseason. But as reports have escalated surrounding Aaron Rodgers’ disenchantment with the Packers' organization, uncertainty has created a decline in his ADP. Any transition under center would instantly impact Adams’ outlook, as his ability to replicate last season’s numbers would decrease significantly without Rodgers spearheading Green Bay’s attack.

Adams had cemented his status as the league’s most prolific receiving weapon by finishing at WR1 in 2020, despite being sidelined in Weeks 3-4 (hamstring). Adams also led all receivers in target share (34.1), red-zone targets (27), and yards after catch (597), while tying for second in receptions (115/8.2 per game), and finishing fifth in percentage share of air yards (38.6). Adams’ exceptional usage and production would be sustained if Rodgers ultimately re-emerges as Green Bay's starting signal-caller. But there is now a degree of risk in targeting Adams as the first receiver during your drafts.

Hill remains embedded among the elite tier at his position, after establishing a new career-high in receiving touchdowns (15) and finishing second only to Adams in both PPR and standard scoring. He was also fourth among all receivers in air yards (1,708) while finishing seventh in receiving yards. (1,276/85.1 per game), and yards before catch (842). He was also eighth in percentage share of air yards (35.9), and ninth in targets (135), while Hill was also one of just eight receivers to collect 9+ targets per game. The lingering potential for Adams to operate without Rodgers supplies rationale for selecting Hill before any other receiver during your drafts.

Diggs began the 2020 offseason as a disenchanted Viking, who had averaged 106.8 targets, 73 receptions, and 924.6 yards during his five seasons with Minnesota (2015-2019). This fueled his trade to Buffalo, where his eventual numbers exceeded all expectations. Diggs soared to the league lead in targets (166) while joining just three other receivers in averaging 10+ targets per game.

Diggs also completed the year at WR3 in scoring, led the NFL in receptions (127/7.9 per game), and receiving yards (1,535/95.9 per game), finished second in yards before catch (1,071), and was third overall in air yards (1,713). Diggs also garnered over 33% of Buffalo’s passing yards during the season and has earned his status as a top-three receiver during your draft process.

Hopkins’ westward migration to Arizona did not deter him from retaining his spot among the league’s tier 1 receivers. He accumulated 160 targets (10 per game), which placed him second overall behind Diggs. That also extended his streak to six consecutive seasons with 150+. Hopkins also led all receivers in first downs (75), while finishing second in target share (29.4), snap count percentage (92.3), receptions (115/7.2 per game), receiving yards (1,407/87.9 per game), and yards after catch (534). Hopkins also constructed a new career-high in catch percentage (71.9) and should function as the cornerstone of the Cardinals’ aerial attack once again.

Metcalf’s extraordinary blend of size and speed accelerated his ability to thrive during the widely-embraced “let Russ Cook” portion of Seattle’s 2020 season. He soared to WR3 in scoring from Weeks 1-9 and was second in receiving yardage (788/98.5 per game). He also finished second in touchdowns (8), third in air yards (989), and fifth in percentage share of air yards (39.4) during that sequence. But Pete Carroll placed self-defeating constraints on the Seahawks’ passing attack, which prevented Metcalf from sustaining his output. The potential for Carroll to maintain a steadfast commitment to the run remains intact. But Metcalf’s ability to explode beyond overmatched defenders during any contest secures his place among the WR1s.

Tier 2

Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin

Ridley’s potential for achieving breakout status became a source of debate during the 2020 offseason after he averaged 8.2 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 82.1 yards per game during his final six matchups of 2019. But he surpassed the expectations of his 2020 ADP (42) by soaring to WR5 in scoring while raising his averages to 9.5 targets/6.0 receptions/91.6 yards per game.

Most games with 100+ receiving yards in 2020

? Calvin Ridley - 8
? Stefon Diggs - 7
? Justin Jefferson - 7
? DeAndre Hopkins - 7
? Davante Adams - 7 pic.twitter.com/6y4uYyEMpy

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 4, 2021

Ridley also accumulated 250 more air yards than any other receiver (2,018), produced 100+ yards in a league-high eight matchups, and generated the most yards before catch (1,099). He was the seventh receiver to be selected during the draft process before Julio Jones was jettisoned to Tennessee. Now, his 2021 production should place him inside the top five in scoring. Ridley averaged 11.2 targets, 7.1 receptions, and 109. 3 yards per game during the seven contests in which Jones was sidelined last season.

Managers should monitor Ridley's recovery from foot surgery. But a rise in his usage and output is now imminent, as he operates throughout an entire season without Jones confiscating targets. This advances Ridley to the threshold of high-end WR1 status, which makes him a viable selection at the onset of Round 2 in your drafts.

The arrival of Jones in Tennessee will also impact Brown, who has eclipsed 1,000 yards during each of his first two seasons and generated 19 touchdowns during his first 30 games. That includes his numbers in 2020 when he established career highs in targets (106/7.6 per game), receptions (70/5 per game), and receiving yards (1,075/76.8 per game). He was also fifth overall with 11 touchdowns and completed the season at WR6 in point-per-game scoring.

From Weeks 5-17 he generated all of his touchdowns, was fourth in receiving yards (1,036/79.7 per game), and finished fifth in target share (26.9).

Former teammates Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith had combined for a 39.0 share (Davis 23.5/Smith 15.5) during 2020 and the Titans' depth chart did not present Brown with any formidable competition for targets prior to the trade for Jones. But the infusion of Jones into the equation will prevent Brown from assembling the massive target total that would have occurred without Jones in Tennessee’s lineup. However, Brown should still be one of the top 10 receivers that are selected during your drafts.

Henry Ruggs III and Jalen Reagor were among the four wide receivers that were selected before Jefferson during the 2020 NFL Draft, while he was only the 55th receiver to be chosen during last year's best-ball drafts. But he ultimately finished at WR6 in PPR scoring, while also establishing a new rookie record for receiving yardage (1,400/87.5 per game).

Justin Jefferson just broke the record for MOST RECEIVING YARDS by a ROOKIE in NFL history ?

Congrats fam ? @JJettas2 (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/BBkFebKVlw

— Overtime (@overtime) January 3, 2021

From Weeks 3-17, Jefferson led all receivers in receiving yards (1,330/95 per game) and was fourth in target share (27.2). He also finished fifth in both air yards (1,368), and percentage share of air yards (41.2). Jefferson is currently the seventh receiver to be selected during this year’s draft process, and should not disappoint anyone who makes that investment.

Thomas entered the 2020 regular season with career averages of 9.6 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 87.5 yards per game. That included his career-best numbers from 2019 when he averaged 11.6 targets, 9.3 receptions, and 107.8 yards per game. But those averages plunged to 7.9 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 62.6 yards per game last season, as Thomas descended from his status as the league’s most prolific wide receiver to just WR41 in point per game scoring. He also was unavailable for nine matchups, due to a combination of health issues (ankle/hamstring) and a suspension. Thomas should reemerge among this year’s WR1s. But his numbers in New Orleans' reconstructed attack will not vault him to the top tier at his position.

Robinson has now exceeded 150 targets during four of his last six seasons, after procuring the league’s third-highest total in 2020 (151/9.4 per game). He also finished fourth in receptions (102/6.4 per game) and red zone targets (19), seventh in air yards (1,454), and collected over 34 percent of the Bears’ passing yards.

#Bears Allen Robinson Last Season Per Pro Football Focus #Chicago #NFL #NFLRumors #BearDown

102 catches
1 drop pic.twitter.com/bEVG7SGgiC

— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) May 9, 2021

He has also accomplished this while preserving an unwanted streak of operating with deficient play at quarterback. However, Chicago’s proactive pursuit of Justin Fields has presented Robinson with a well-deserved opportunity to perform with the most talented signal-caller of his career.

Allen captured 10+ targets during 10 of his first 13 matchups, which propelled him to a league-best 144 (11.1 per game). His 99 receptions were also just one fewer than league leader Diggs entering Week 15, while Allen was also second overall in first down receptions (60) and seventh in red zone targets (16).

But Allen only played 24 additional snaps during LA’s remaining matchups (hamstring/ COVID-19). However, he established his ability to thrive with Justin Herbert spearheading the Chargers’ attack and remains entrenched as the teams’ primary receiving weapon. This preserves his status as a low-end WR1.

Godwin entered 2020 having just completed a consummate breakout season. He finished WR2 in scoring during 2019 and was also third in both receiving yards (1,333/95.2 per game), and touchdowns (9). But Tampa Bay’s transition to Tom Brady combined with Godwin’s four-game absence (fractured finger/concussion) to fuel a decline in his usage and production during 2020 (7 targets/5.4 receptions/70 yards per game). However, Godwin still finished at WR15 in point-per-game scoring and was fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). He should expand last season’s numbers during a second season with Brady. This vaults him among the most viable options during Round 4 of your drafts.

McLaurin achieved breakout status during his second season, despite an ankle issue and ongoing inadequacies at quarterback. He entered Week 13 at WR9 in scoring, was fifth in targets (102/9.3 per game), and was fourth in receiving yardage (963/87.5 per game). McLaurin also led all receivers in percentage share of air yards (46.7) before the troublesome ankle reduced his effectiveness from Weeks 13-17 (8.0 targets/4.5 receptions/38.8 yards per game. McLaurin still captured over 32 percent of Washington’s passing yards and should continue to thrive in The Football Team’s reshaped passing attack. Not only will he benefit from the arrival of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the presence of Curtis Samuel will encourage opposing defenses to divert resources that would otherwise be focused on neutralizing McLaurin.

Tier 3

Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Kenny Golladay 

Jones departs Atlanta after accumulating 1,322 targets (9.8 per game), 848 receptions (6.3 per game), and 12,896 yards (95.5 per game) during his 10 seasons as a Falcon. He also generated 9,388 yards from 2014-2019 while averaging 162 targets and 104 receptions during those six seasons. A lingering hamstring issue sidelined him for seven games during 2020, which prevented him from extending that streak. But he did deliver a four-game sequence of high-quality performances from Weeks 6-9 while amassing 425 yards (106.3 per game).

That was the league’s second-highest total during those contests, while he was also fourth in targets (36/9 per game) and second in receptions (28/7 per game). If he eludes protracted injuries, Jones remains fully capable of delivering another highly productive season, even though Brown will commandeer a sizable share of targets from Ryan Tannehill. Jones’ ADP had fallen to Round 5 before the trade (51/WR19). But he is now worthy of consideration in Round 3.

Evans’ targets per game average had ranged between 8.6 and 10.8 from 2015-2019. But Brady’s arrival triggered concerns surrounding Evans’ ability to sustain that level of usage while functioning in the Buccaneers’ transformed attack. Evans’ target per game average ultimately did drop to 6.8 last season as Brady also dispersed passes to Godwin and Antonio Brown. But Evans still led Tampa Bay in target share (18), targets (109), receptions (70/4.4 per game), receiving yards (1,006/62.9 per game), and air yards (1,327), while finishing fourth overall with a career-high 13 touchdowns. He presents managers with a legitimate target at his Round 4 ADP.

Just a reminder that #Cowboys WR Amari Cooper is really good. pic.twitter.com/8dODQz2mn6

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) February 2, 2021

Cooper was WR1 in scoring after Week 4 and had collected a league-high 51 targets (12.8 per game). He was also second in receptions (37/9.3 per game) and had already eclipsed 400 receiving yards (100.3 per game). But the season-ending ankle injury that Dak Prescott encountered in Week 5 triggered a statistical decline. Cooper plunged to WR29 in scoring during his final 12 matchups, trailed teammates CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup in targets (82/81/79), and experienced a decrease in his per-game averages (6.6 targets/4.6 receptions/59.4 yards). A full season with Prescott will keep Cooper among the WR2s, although the looming presence of Lamb could prevent him from attaining WR1 status.

Woods finished at WR19 in point-per-game scoring and finished second in offensive snaps (1,124) during 2020. His target and reception totals (129/90) were also comparable to his averages during 2018-2019 (134.5 targets/88 receptions). But last year’s yardage total (936) failed to approach the 1,177 that he averaged during his previous two seasons – even though he played in all 16 regular-season matchups. His yards-per-game average (58.5) was also the lowest during his four seasons as a Ram, while he also established a new career-low in yards per receptions (10.4). However, he remains LA’s WR1 and should benefit from the arrival of Matthew Stafford.

Golladay had appeared primed to seize WR1 status in 2020 after he finished WR9 in scoring and generated an NFL-best 11 touchdowns during 2019. He was also sixth in air yards (1,698) and had accrued nearly 1,200 receiving yards (1,190).  But his abbreviated 2020 season consisted of 226 snaps, 32 targets, 20 receptions, and 338 yards, as he contended with a lingering hip issue that sidelined him for 11 contests. Golladay has been infused into the Giants’ receiving arsenal, where he should emerge as the team’s WR1. But he will contend with competition for targets from a cluster of teammates (Saquon Barkley/Sterling Shepard/Evan Engram/Darius Slayton/Kadarius Toney). All concerns are also justified surrounding Daniel Jones’ ability to spearhead New York’s attack.

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