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You should adjust these rankings to account for your league-- in shallower leagues or formats with daily transactions, upside pitchers are worth investing in since you can replace high-floor, low-ceiling players from the waiver wire. In deeper leagues or those with very infrequent waivers, high-floor pitchers are more important, as the wire will likely be barren and it'll be a challenge to effectively stream pitchers.
In weekly leagues, so long as they aren't too deep, it often makes sense to target a few elite pitchers to head your rotation and allow the two-start streamers to serve as depth; it makes little sense to carry high-floor pitchers whose value will often be outweighed by streamers. With these tips in mind, we move onto the players themselves.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher
Tier Six
Remember when people were arguing whether or not Justin Verlander should be the AL MVP? Those days are gone. I blame Kate Upton. However, Verlander returned from a lenghty triceps injury to surprise fantasy owners with a solid back end last season. Verlander used to throw 99 in the eight inning, but as he's lost his velocity he's been forced to get craftier, and I think he makes a nice comeback in 2016.
I love Carlos Rodon's upside, as the only thing that really killed him last year was his control, and that's something that only gets better with time. He was in the majors less than a year after being drafted, so it's clear the White Sox think of him as a stud. His lefty heat and nasty slider should yield high strikeout numbers, and if he can mature as a pitcher he could be a total steal in drafts.
I seem to like Collin McHugh a bit more than my colleagues, and I'm quite alright with that. Unlike the previously mentioned Rodon, I think McHugh's upside is limited. However, his floor is particularly high, which is why I'm putting my faith in him. He'll keep his ERA below 4.00, strike out around 180 batters, and probably amass 12-14 wins on a very good Astros team. McHugh won't be an ace in 2016, but he should be a very solid SP3/SP4.
Tier Seven
I have to assume Julio Teheran is going to bounce back, only because there is nowhere to go but up. The Braves default ace was destroyed by lefties in 2015, as 18 of the 27 homers he allowed came off the bat of lefties, who also hit .300 (!) over the course of the season. Hopefully Teheran will focus on improving those numbers, and if he does he could evolve back into the SP3 he was drafted as in 2015.
Andrew Cashner is another low-ceiling, high-floor guy. He stayed healthy last year, which allowed him to get his strikeout totals back up. Unfortunately, Cashner seemed to have the worst luck. While none of his peripherals jump off the page, he certainly should not have finished at 6-16, and I expect his record to be much closer or above .500 this year. He also allowed a .337 BABIP, and that is all but guaranteed to regress to the mean.
Tier Eight
I'm excited to see what Aaron Nola can do with a full season. The highly-touted rookie was impressive in his 77.2 innings, posting a 6-2 record with 68 strikeouts and a more-than-respectable 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. With a 90-91 MPH fastball, Nola doesn't blow anyone away, which limits his upside. However, if he can improve his control I think he'll be able to maintain that ERA and WHIP. The Phillies won't do much winning this year, but Nola should give them a chance every time he goes out there.
Kevin Gausman mixed the good and the bad in his 100 innings last season. The 90 strikeouts were very nice, but the 15 homers allowed are incredibly troublesome. I have to think that his HR/9 rate will be much closer to 1.0 than 1.5, and if that's the case there is significant upside here. Playing in Camden Yards doesn't help matters, but with the strikeout ability that Gausman brings to the table I'm definitely taking a flier in 2016.
Tier Nine
Anthony Desclafani, what are you doing down here? I like the young righty's potential in the top half of the Reds' rotation, and I think he'll take another step forward in 2016. His ERA and WHIP were inflated by a disastrous second half last year, but he flashed his potential in the first half with a 3.65 ERA. He won't rack up the strikeouts and I don't see any way he breaks 12 wins, but when you're this far down the draft you're looking for potential, and there's plenty of it in Desclafani.
Trevor Bauer is maddening. He had 17 starts of 6+ innings pitched and two or fewer runs, but he also had 10 starts allowing five runs or more. I'm ranking with the belief (hope?) that Bauer can show a little more positive consistency in 2016. As a former first-round pick, the potential is theoretically there for Bauer, but he'll need to take a big step forward with his control if he's going to become a valid fantasy option.
Tier Ten
Speaking of highly-touted prospects, Jerad Eickhoff should break camp as a member of the Phillies starting rotation. Between his significant strikeout potential (8.6 K/9 during his brief stint in the majors last year) and his consistently low ERA and WHIP history, there is plenty to like about Eickhoff. He does still need some fine-tuning, as he has had trouble with the long ball in the past, but he could be a major fantasy asset down the stretch.
Chris Heston threw a no-hitter last year, remember that? No you didn't, you liar. The reason you might not is because outside of a brief hot streak, Heston was largely unimpressive in 2015. I'm avoiding him for the most part this year in the draft, but keep him on your watch-list in case he gets hot once again during the warmer months.
Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)
| Ranking | Tier | Name | Brad | Max | Kyle | Nick | Harris | Jeff | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Clayton Kershaw | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Max Scherzer | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | Chris Sale | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | Jake Arrieta | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | Zack Greinke | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 6 | 2 | David Price | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | Jacob deGrom | 13 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | 3 | Madison Bumgarner | 5 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 13 |
| 9 | 3 | Jose Fernandez | 11 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | 3 | Dallas Keuchel | 7 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | Gerrit Cole | 17 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | Noah Syndergaard | 10 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| 13 | 3 | Matt Harvey | 16 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 17 |
| 14 | 3 | Stephen Strasburg | 14 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 18 |
| 15 | 3 | Corey Kluber | 9 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 16 | 3 | Felix Hernandez | 12 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 8 |
| 17 | 3 | Chris Archer | 18 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 11 |
| 18 | 3 | Carlos Carrasco | 15 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 15 |
| 19 | 4 | Jon Lester | 19 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 20 |
| 20 | 4 | Sonny Gray | 22 | 20 | 24 | 23 | 18 | 26 | 19 |
| 21 | 4 | Johnny Cueto | 21 | 23 | 20 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 23 |
| 22 | 4 | Cole Hamels | 25 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 21 |
| 23 | 4 | Adam Wainwright | 20 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 26 | 25 | 25 |
| 24 | 4 | Carlos Martinez | 29 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 28 | 21 | 24 |
| 25 | 4 | Danny Salazar | 23 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 31 | 22 | 28 |
| 26 | 4 | Tyson Ross | 24 | 25 | 30 | 29 | 22 | 23 | 30 |
| 27 | 4 | Marcus Stroman | 38 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 31 | 31 |
| 28 | 4 | Francisco Liriano | 30 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 36 |
| 29 | 5 | Yu Darvish | 26 | 33 | 31 | 26 | 36 | 49 | 22 |
| 30 | 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | 35 | 28 | 35 | 30 | 37 | 32 | 29 |
| 31 | 5 | Jose Quintana | 33 | 35 | 29 | 35 | 29 | 46 | 34 |
| 32 | 5 | Jake Odorizzi | 27 | 38 | 33 | 44 | 33 | 28 | 39 |
| 33 | 5 | Michael Wacha | 56 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 34 | 5 | Jordan Zimmermann | 45 | 31 | 37 | 34 | 25 | 53 | 27 |
| 35 | 5 | Lance McCullers | 39 | 50 | 27 | 36 | 42 | 29 | 40 |
| 36 | 5 | Luis Severino | 46 | 29 | 44 | 37 | 39 | 44 | 26 |
| 37 | 5 | Garrett Richards | 47 | 39 | 38 | 40 | 32 | 36 | 37 |
| 38 | 5 | Scott Kazmir | 61 | 34 | 36 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 39 | 5 | Michael Pineda | 48 | 36 | 43 | 31 | 46 | 40 | 35 |
| 40 | 5 | Jeff Samardzija | 31 | 40 | 46 | 47 | 34 | 35 | 49 |
| 41 | 5 | Patrick Corbin | 44 | 45 | 34 | 33 | 48 | 39 | 42 |
| 42 | 6 | Steven Matz | 42 | 42 | 47 | 41 | 45 | 38 | 44 |
| 43 | 6 | Drew Smyly | 36 | 42 | 57 | 43 | 40 | 33 | 60 |
| 44 | 6 | Justin Verlander | 50 | 49 | 51 | 45 | 49 | 30 | 46 |
| 45 | 6 | Raisel Iglesias | 41 | 51 | 41 | 46 | 44 | 48 | 51 |
| 46 | 6 | John Lackey | 34 | 48 | 56 | 48 | 50 | 50 | 55 |
| 47 | 6 | Shelby Miller | 65 | 37 | 54 | 52 | 35 | 61 | 38 |
| 48 | 6 | Taijuan Walker | 37 | 67 | 45 | 50 | 41 | 51 | 54 |
| 49 | 6 | Yordano Ventura | 32 | 47 | 53 | 53 | 56 | 58 | 48 |
| 50 | 6 | Gio Gonzalez | 63 | 41 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 47 | 45 |
| 51 | 6 | Clay Buchholz | 43 | 54 | 42 | 49 | 58 | 56 | 56 |
| 52 | 6 | James Shields | 54 | 44 | 58 | 58 | 53 | 41 | 52 |
| 53 | 6 | Hisashi Iwakuma | 40 | 60 | 39 | 55 | 54 | 60 | 58 |
| 54 | 6 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 51 | 47 | 48 | 56 | 55 | 66 | 64 |
| 55 | 6 | Joe Ross | 89 | 43 | 40 | 38 | 51 | 57 | 57 |
| 56 | 6 | Carlos Rodon | 67 | 57 | 59 | 54 | 43 | 45 | 47 |
| 57 | 6 | Collin McHugh | 68 | 52 | 52 | 57 | 57 | 54 | 50 |
| 58 | 6 | Wei-Yin Chen | 28 | 55 | 73 | 60 | 60 | 52 | 63 |
| 59 | 6 | Alex Cobb | 62 | 46 | 49 | 67 | 59 | 71 | 62 |
| 60 | 6 | Kyle Hendricks | 57 | 61 | 55 | 59 | 62 | 42 | 41 |
| 61 | 6 | Jaime Garcia | 64 | 53 | 64 | 42 | 73 | 67 | 43 |
| 62 | 7 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 53 | 56 | 61 | 61 | 69 | 59 | 61 |
| 63 | 7 | Julio Teheran | 74 | 58 | 71 | 66 | 47 | 63 | 66 |
| 64 | 7 | Andrew Cashner | 52 | 59 | 72 | 68 | 65 | 72 | 59 |
| 65 | 7 | Jason Hammel | 59 | 70 | 63 | 74 | 83 | 73 | 53 |
| 66 | 7 | Ian Kennedy | 60 | 75 | 70 | 63 | 66 | 65 | 77 |
| 67 | 7 | Nathan Eovaldi | 69 | 74 | 60 | 62 | 76 | 70 | 68 |
| 68 | 8 | Kenta Maeda | 55 | 63 | 100 | 64 | 79 | 55 | - |
| 69 | 8 | Aaron Nola | 66 | 62 | 69 | 76 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
| 70 | 8 | Anibal Sanchez | 76 | 68 | 67 | 71 | 63 | 74 | 74 |
| 71 | 8 | Andrew Heaney | 84 | 69 | 65 | 70 | 80 | 68 | 65 |
| 72 | 8 | Mike Fiers | 58 | 79 | 74 | 104 | 61 | 43 | 84 |
| 73 | 8 | Robbie Ray | 73 | 65 | 62 | 69 | 88 | 76 | 71 |
| 74 | 8 | Jimmy Nelson | 78 | 66 | 75 | 72 | 75 | 77 | 73 |
| 75 | 8 | Marco Estrada | 75 | 64 | 78 | 78 | 74 | 78 | 76 |
| 76 | 8 | Kevin Gausman | 87 | 76 | 77 | 88 | 71 | 62 | 70 |
| 77 | 8 | Alex Wood | 72 | 83 | 68 | 84 | 68 | 79 | 79 |
| 78 | 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | 83 | 82 | 66 | 73 | 97 | 80 | 69 |
| 79 | 9 | Mike Leake | 88 | 78 | 86 | 86 | 64 | 82 | 85 |
| 80 | 9 | Erasmo Ramirez | 71 | 95 | 76 | 65 | 114 | 92 | 83 |
| 81 | 9 | Trevor Bauer | 99 | 72 | 84 | 85 | 106 | 90 | 67 |
| 82 | 9 | Derek Holland | 80 | 71 | 94 | 103 | - | - | 89 |
| 83 | 9 | J.A. Happ | - | 92 | 82 | 80 | 87 | 86 | 102 |
| 84 | 9 | Taylor Jungmann | 114 | 88 | 87 | 89 | - | 88 | 75 |
| 85 | 9 | Nate Karns | - | 81 | 79 | 93 | 115 | 93 | 82 |
| 86 | 9 | Henry Owens | 93 | 94 | 90 | 75 | 119 | 91 | 80 |
| 87 | 9 | Wade Miley | 77 | 98 | 91 | 109 | 95 | 69 | 103 |
| 88 | 9 | Yovani Gallardo | 95 | 89 | 101 | 97 | 67 | 115 | 87 |
| 89 | 9 | Edinson Volquez | 86 | 84 | 97 | 91 | 96 | 111 | 90 |
| 90 | 9 | Jake Peavy | 116 | 97 | 83 | 95 | 99 | 87 | 81 |
| 91 | 9 | James Paxton | 91 | 103 | 96 | 96 | 90 | 83 | 99 |
| 92 | 10 | Drew Hutchison | - | 111 | 81 | 79 | - | 94 | 107 |
| 93 | 10 | Jerad Eickhoff | 85 | 100 | 93 | 77 | 118 | 95 | 95 |
| 94 | 10 | Jesse Hahn | 110 | 77 | 117 | 81 | 78 | 112 | 88 |
| 95 | 10 | Chris Heston | 123 | 86 | - | 83 | 91 | - | 94 |
| 96 | 10 | Mat Latos | 118 | 96 | 80 | 87 | 102 | 96 | 92 |
| 97 | 10 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 94 | 99 | 92 | 107 | 98 | - | 93 |
| 98 | 10 | Tyler Duffey | 81 | 80 | 107 | 90 | 120 | 109 | 96 |
| 99 | 10 | Ervin Santana | 111 | 87 | 98 | 82 | 112 | 110 | 86 |
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