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We continue our fantasy baseball dynasty rankings analysis with the first base position. RotoBaller writers Kyle Richardson, Chris Zolli, and I have come up with our pre-season rankings to give you a sense of player values as early as possible.
In a dynasty league, it can be tough to decide between a proven veteran or a high-upside youngster. It is important to think about your own team when considering these rankings; if you're a rebuilding squad playing for the future, consider a younger player in a tier.
Without any more delay, let's take a peek at the 2018 first base dynasty rankings for February. Be sure to also check out more of our staff's initial 2018 fantasy baseball rankings and analysis columns for other formats including mixed leagues, dynasty leagues, 2018 prospects and more.
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2018 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Rankings: First Base (February)
Tier 1
Paul Goldschmidt is the only first baseman in Tier 1, and there's nobody more deserving. Even at 30 years old, there aren't too many players that you'd rather build your team around. He should be able to hit .290 with 30+ homers for years to come, along with tons of runs and RBI. If there's one thing to worry about, it's his speed, as his 18 steals in 2017 was his lowest mark in three years. As Goldy gets older, the steals may begin to diminish, but he will still be an elite hitter.
Tier 2
Tier 2 is led off by two outstanding hitters in the prime of their careers, Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman. Both are near-locks for top-tier production for a long time. Cody Bellinger comes in right behind them after a historic rookie season where he hit 39 home runs and stole 10 bags. I actually ranked Bellinger higher than both Rizzo and Freeman - while they are both safer bets, I'd rather take the 22-year-old with generational upside. The K-rate is a bit concerning at 26.6%, although in today's environment it could be much worse. Bellinger has the potential to be a top 20 fantasy player for many years to come, and that's not something I want to miss out on.
Tier 3
The most interesting name in this tier is Matt Olson, who hit 24 home runs in just 216 plate appearances. Of course, this was aided by an unsustainable 41.4% HR/FB rate, and Olson also hit only two doubles in 2017. He's a huge risk for running a horrible batting average, but it's tough to argue with the power output as he enters his age 24 season.
Miguel Cabrera sits in the middle of Tier 3, and I've got the lowest ranking of him. He's entering his age 35 season and dealt with some serious back issues last season. This feels like something that will linger and hamper his production on the field, if not keep him off of the field entirely.
Greg Bird is another controversial name to appear in Tier 3. He's still only 25, and he can easily mash 30+ homers at Yankee Stadium in an absolutely loaded lineup. However, Bird is an extremely risky player due to his injury history. If he's healthy, he can shine, but that's a big if.
Tier 4
Rhys Hoskins should be up in Tier 2, but was held down here due to Kyle's ranking, which was either a mistake or an outlandish contrarian ranking. This will likely change by the time March rolls around. Hoskins hit 18 homers in 212 plate appearances with a fantastic 17.5% walk-rate, and he's got real potential to become an impact bat in 2018 and beyond. It's a small sample, but Hoskins also raked in the minors, with a 166 wRC+ in AAA. He's in a great ballpark with a young, budding lineup surrounding him.
Trey Mancini is an intriguing dynasty sleeper option at the end of this tier. He quietly put together a very impressive rookie season where he batted .293 with 24 homers. His .352 BABIP is going to come down, so he's probably more of a .270 hitter, but he should be able to replicate or improve upon his power numbers at a hitter's park in Baltimore.
Tier 5
This is where things start to get ugly. You can take a chance on A.J. Reed if you think he can actually: 1) hit major league pitching and 2) somehow find playing time. I don't think either of those are possible. Ryan McMahon is an enticing option after posting a 161 wRC+ in AAA, and he will now get to hit at Coors Field in the majors. However, keep an eye on his playing time situation, as it currently looks like he may be blocked by Ian Desmond at first base.
Tiers 6 and 7
This tier consists of almost nothing but old, rotting corpses of baseball players. Out of this bunch, I like Yuli Gurriel the most. He can bat .300 in the stacked Astros lineup and rack up some counting stats. The issue with first baseman in dynasty leagues is that there are virtually no impact prospects that are coming up any time soon. At other positions, investing in a prospect is a smart choice, but there's really not much to choose from at first base.
