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2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Outfield


Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants. The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

The product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2019 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2020). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2019 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. I've already unveiled my rankings for First Base, Second Base, Third BaseShortstop. and even behind the plate. But now we move to the spacious Outfield.

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JB's Keeper Value System

TIER SCORE DESCRIPTION
1 >100 Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2 75-99 Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3 50-74 You are gaining good value with these players. A majority of good keepers options tend to fall into this category.
4 25-49 Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5 0-24 Break-even point. Keeping these players could hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding much value. It is not recommended to use a Keeper selection here.
6 <0 The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

 

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Outfield

POS Rank Keeper Tier Player ADP (Round) Score
1 1 Cody Bellinger LAD 4 109.69
2 1 Yordan Alvarez HOU 23 106.44
3 1 Ronald Acuna ATL 1 104.27
4 2 Ketel Marte ARI 21 96.92
5 2 Austin Meadows TBR 18 95.66
6 2 Mike Trout LAA 1 83.94
7 2 Jorge Soler KCR 23 83.20
8 2 Christian Yelich MIL 1 82.25
9 2 Juan Soto WAS 3 81.81
10 2 Luis Robert CWS 23 76.90
11 2 Trey Mancini BAL 23 76.86
12 3 Jeff McNeil NYM 23 72.61
13 3 Ramon Laureano OAK 19 70.54
14 3 Eloy Jimenez CWS 10 63.87
15 3 Max Kepler MIN 20 59.80
16 3 Mookie Betts LAD 1 58.79
17 3 Franmil Reyes CLE 20 55.93
18 3 Oscar Mercado CLE 23 54.22
19 4 Jo Adell LAA 23 48.93
20 4 Danny Santana TEX 23 48.33
21 4 Aristides Aquino CIN 23 46.63
22 4 Bryan Reynolds PIT 23 42.80
23 4 George Springer HOU 4 42.34
24 4 Joc Pederson LAD 23 41.91
25 4 Starling Marte ARI 4 36.32
26 4 Willie Calhoun TEX 23 36.11
27 4 Joey Gallo TEX 8 34.64
28 4 Kyle Tucker HOU 23 33.11
29 4 Hunter Dozier KCR 23 32.36
30 4 Lourdes Gurriel Jr TOR 20 32.01
31 4 Eddie Rosario MIN 7 29.20
32 4 Scott Kingery PHI 23 29.17
33 4 Victor Robles WAS 10 26.97
34 5 J.D. Davis NYM 23 23.24
35 5 Michael Brantley HOU 9 22.85
36 5 Nick Castellanos CIN 8 21.13
37 5 Tommy Edman STL 23 20.95
38 5 Michael Conforto NYM 9 20.75
39 5 Kyle Schwarber CHC 15 17.35
40 5 Avisail Garcia MIL 23 14.88
41 5 Brian Anderson MIA 23 7.78
42 5 Shin-Soo Choo TEX 22 4.17
43 5 Charlie Blackmon COL 3 2.76
44 5 Marcell Ozuna ATL 6 2.22

 

Tier One

Wow, what a group. I know, "How is Ronald Acuna not number one?" The formula has always valued first-round talents anywhere outside first-round costs, and it's hard to argue with Cody Bellinger. Belly put his sophomore "slump" season way back in the rear-view mirror in 2019 with career highs in all five Roto categories. He finished top-10 in HR, R, and RBI while adding 15 SB and a .305 BA to boot. There are really no red flags here as he also boasted top-10 LD%, Hard%, and K/BB%. Bellinger is a consensus top-five hitter in 2020 and getting to keep him anywhere outside the first round is a huge value.

First off, let's acknowledge the greatness of Acuna to score two points lower than Yordan Alvarez despite a 22-round difference in cost. At 22 years old with a great lineup and 40/40 talent, it certainly makes sense considering anything past the first pick overall is a steal on draft day. But Acuna is a no-brainer, of course, so let's talk about the other 22-year old, the one that hit 50 HR with 149 RBI between AAA and MLB in 2019.

We only saw Alvarez for half a season at the big leagues, but it proved to be an easy transition for him as he hit 27 of those 50 bombs and boasted a .313/.412/.655 slash. The bottom line is I have zero concerns about this kid's ability to continue absolutely mashing the ball. All his Exit Velo stats are top-notch, he has hit at every level, and he plays in a great lineup (with or without trash cans). The only downside with Yordan is the position eligibility. He only made nine starts in the OF in 2019, which is why many sites including NFBC only have him as UT/DH-eligible for 2020.

After reportedly playing through knee pain all last season, Alvarez claims the legs feel "fine" for 2020. However, he has already been scratched from a Grapefruit League game for knee soreness this year. Whether or not he makes enough appearances in the OF this year to gain/retain the OF eligibility certainly plays a large role in his future value. As the 25th-ranked player overall in RotoBaller's Rankings it's easy to understand the Tier One keeper value score for 2020.

 

Tier Two

I know tier one was an elite unit, but tier two may be the most fun keeper tier we've seen this year. Two of the top players in the sport mixed in with numerous up-and-coming youngsters already making their mark in fantasy. The first guy representing the loaded tier is Ketel Marte. Marte shocked the industry in 2019 with 32 HR, 10 SB, and a .329 BA as he finished top-20 overall in standard leagues. It was nothing short of amazing, especially considering he played 119 games with the Mariners in 2016 and hit ONE HR. Whether you believe in a repeat or not, RotoBaller has him ranked 40th overall, which, combined with his position-eligibility bonus, makes for a fantastic keeper choice in the late rounds.

The next chunk of tier two is the early-round elites. Mike Trout and Christian Yelich despite being first-round keepers both boast impressive scores which show that having those bats at literally any cost is a bargain in 2020. Acuna obviously bested the two by a fairly shocking margin, which I would attribute mostly to age and durability.

The third outfielder in the bunch to rep a tier-two score despite an early-round ADP is the beloved Juan Soto. Like Acuna, Soto flashed enough potential and skill in 2018 for fantasy owners to buy-in for the sophomore campaign, and he certainly did not disappoint. He finished the year with a 110/34/110/12/.282 line and a World Series ring. His underlying numbers are just as brilliant as they are on the surface. He almost replicated his fantastic BB/K numbers to a tee from his rookie season; his HR/FB% actually decreased two points, he increased his FB% by nine points, pulled the ball more, and increased his hard contact rate. There is nothing to dislike, and the kid is still only 21 years old.

The remainder tier two keeper scores belong to the late rounders. Austin Meadows, Luis Robert, Jorge Soler, and Trey Mancini all enjoyed massive break-outs in 2019 and present golden opportunities for those fortunate enough to lock them down in their keeper leagues. Meadows had every bit of a season as Soto had at the plate, going 33/12 with a .292 batting average for the Rays after being traded from the Pirates the previous year. The projections obviously aren't ready to buy-in to a repeat like they are with Soto but you can't deny the potential... I mean we've already seen it once.

Luis Robert is slated to not only get his first taste of the bigs this season but immediately slot into the starting lineup in Chicago on Opening Day. The question remains of how he will handle major league pitching, but there is no doubting the talent that led to 24 HR and 28 SB in LESS THAN 500 PAs in the minors last year.

 

Tier Three

While it doesn't contain two of the top-three players in baseball like the previous tier, tier three is almost just as interesting. Mookie Betts will be playing his first season away from Fenway Park but joining another very potent offense in LA. Eloy Jimenez didn't quite deliver on his 2019 preseason hype, but with the known talent and power in that exciting offense, a 10th-round cost is still enticing and a bargain compared to his sixth-round 2020 ADP. Then we have some familiar late-round options in Max Kepler and Franmil Reyes who both possess great power and run production, and if the BA can stay respectable, they are poised for massive campaigns.

Jeff McNeil just misses the second tier from his UDFA ADP. Like Ketel Marte, this isn't the first time you've seen McNeil's name this series as he qualifies for second, third, and outfield on many fantasy sites for 2020. In his first full season at the big league level, McNeil hit an impressive .318 with an equally impressive 13.2 K%. His 11.2 Soft% was good for fifth-lowest in baseball, and RotoBaller projects him as a top-100 fantasy player again in 2020. Again, the multi-position eligibility is a huge bonus.

The biggest name that jumps off the table in tier three for me is Ramon Laureano. I was on-board the hype train last season because who doesn't love late-round 20/20 threats? But unfortunately, the injury bug hit quickly, replacements were needed, and Laureano hit just .234 through April so he was the first one to go. Of course, he did finish with 24 HR, 13 SB, and a .288 BA in 481 PA. He missed time due to a stress "reaction" in his shin, but I mean if he sees 600 healthy PA we could be talking about a 30/20 season.

Not to be forgotten, Laureano is also a phenomenal fielder. He possesses a rare blend of power/speed that is usually reserved for the first three rounds of a draft and will be hitting near the top of a sneaky good lineup in 2020. Still just 25 years old, Laureano is one of my favorite OF targets in drafts this season and I would be thrilled to own him in a keeper league anywhere in the second half of the draft.

 

Tier Four

We've reached our first player that won't even be on an Opening Day roster. Despite not knowing when Jo Adell will join the Angels, he still just misses out on being a tier-three keeper score by two points. That is quite a testament to the production that is expected from the 20-year-old prospect. Across three levels of minor leagues in 2018, Adell hit 20 HR and stole 15 bases in barely over 400 PA. The strikeout rates will have to improve before the BA is truly helpful in fantasy, but he undoubtedly has 20/20 potential and at some point in 2020 will join Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani in a great Angels lineup.

Adell is not the only 20/20 threat in this tier. Danny Santana came out of nowhere last season and reached the milestone in just 511 PA. With Delino DeShields traded to Cleveland this offseason, the switch-hitter looks to be entrenched as the starting CF in Texas, making for a serious steal in keeper leagues. Starling Marte is an automatic combo-threat at this point and now gets to play half his games at Chase Field in the desert atop a much more dangerous lineup than he was accustomed to in Pittsburgh. We've seen him drafted as early as the late first round in fantasy leagues this year so obviously people are buying into the change of scenery.

Scott Kingery and Victor Robles both were fairly close to hitting 20/20 in 2019. Kingery looks to be the everyday second baseman for the Phillies, so as long as he can get on base at a reasonable rate he should have no problem getting there in 2020 and represents a nice value if you can keep him late after going undrafted in most 2019 leagues. Robles will steal 30 bases this season. With just a touch of good luck in the HR/FB department, he could very well hit 20 HR. He is still only 22 years old, and with the loss of Anthony Rendon this off-season, the Nats could slot him at the top of the lineup this season which would make Robles a monster draft pick/keeper selection.

 

Tier Five

We've reached the point where the value isn't great, but the players still can be. Nick Castellanos for instance, hopes to carry over a strong second half in Chicago to his new home at Great American Ball Park where he should see a handful of those would-be doubles clearing the fences.

Tommy Edman isn't on a new team, but he will see his first full season at the Major-League level after showing a very impressive pop/speed combo in 349 PA last year, finishing with 11 HR and 19 SB. He should be on the field nearly every day in a super-utility role, which will also add some great position-eligibility bonuses throughout the season. The value here could be much higher than the formula projects, pending on what projection system you are looking at. THE BAT projects 11 HR, 13 SB, with a .265 BA while ATC is much higher with 14/20/.275. With speed being at a premium these days, and position eligibility bumps, Edman is at the very worst a very intriguing keeper option in the late rounds.

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The warning signals get brighter by the week since we have more data to work from. The larger the sample size the easier it is for us to connect the dots from the latest trends. Football is a game of small samples and many variables, making it one of the hardest sports to predict. How... Read More


How to Value Clyde Edwards-Helaire with Le'Veon Bell in KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jonathan Taylor? Coming into the season this was the biggest question for fantasy GMs, both dynasty managers who were thinking long-term and redraft managers who wanted to know who would be better for this season. There were many different theories and believe me when I say, both sides thought they were 100%... Read More


NextGen Stats - Quarterback Breakdowns and Takeaways

It's been a month since the last time we took a look at our beloved quarterbacks. Numbers are numbers, and numbers don't lie. You can twist them, but looking at them objectively, numbers say that no matter what, rushing the ball is almost always a worse option than passing it in today's game. That's why... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 7

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 6

This series continues into its sixth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. In Week 6, we saw performances such as Ryan Tannehill throwing for 364 passing yards, the Houston Texans running backs combining for 66 rushing yards, and the New... Read More


Tape Tells All: D'Andre Swift's Week 6 Performance

Welcome to another edition of Tape Tells All. I've been thinking of rebranding as just TAPE. All-Caps like that. Probably wouldn't be a good idea for SEO purposes, right? Anyways, this week we'll be discussing Detroit Lions rookie running back D'Andre Swift. Swift set a lot of career highs this week, with bests in carries... Read More


Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

Week 6 was like the 2020 of fantasy football weeks. All those great matchups meant nothing, those studs let you down, and your bench likely went crazy. The good news is that we didn't have any season-ending injuries to running backs or games canceled due to COVID, so in retrospect maybe we shouldn't complain. The... Read More


FAB Bidding - Week 7 Waiver Wire Targets

Whether it's injuries, bye-week blues, or simply poor performance, we've got the waiver-wire cure...but it just might cost you! Alongside our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 7 Lightning Round

Week 6 was relatively healthy and had no coronavirus delays, so let's just take a moment to bask in that. That said, we still saw Miles Sanders (knee) and Zach Ertz (ankle) go down, while Mark Ingram (ankle) has a bye to get healthy. Week 7 byes are Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, and Minnesota. Let's get... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Fantasy GMs are to be commended for rising to the unique challenges that have unfolded during this regular season. Injuries to critical players is an unwelcome reality that occurs every year. This is also the case for backs that were expected to operate as RB1s, but have been relegated to committees. However, this season has... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 7

Six weeks of NFL football are behind us, aside from a pair of Monday games, including a late afternoon game between the Bills and the Chiefs. In terms of wide receiver production this week, we didn't have the huge breakouts like we had in Week 5. Chase Claypool didn't score four touchdowns. In fact, only... Read More


More Recent Articles

 

Dissecting Contact Quality In Search Of Fantasy Bargains

Of the 1,015 hitters sampled(1) between 2015 and 2019, there were only 14 instances of hitters making more productive contact against pitches outside of the strike zone than against pitches inside of the strike zone based on xwOBAcon. Based on the same sample, the average hitter was a whopping .116 points better against pitches inside... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 23rd, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 23rd, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Lineup Order Risers and Fallers: AL West 2020 Review

It’s the offseason and there are about to be a bunch of moving parts. This allows for speculation in terms of players gaining or losing playing time, moving up or down a batting order and much more. The idea here is to highlight some lineup situations for each team and some potential winners or losers... Read More


2021 1st & 2nd Year Players with James Anderson - Benched with Bubba (Episode 317)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) on episode 317. The guys will go over 30+ first and second-year players. They will discuss their current ADP's in the 2 Early Mocks, what to expect of the players in 2021, and much more. They also go over some listener questions, compare Juan Soto to Mike... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 21st, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 21st, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 20th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 20th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 54: 2 Early Mocks APD Player Debates - Benched with Bubba (Episode 316)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They go over some of the positions and look at players with similar ADPs and debate. Going around the diamond discussing some players people are high on and some they are down on with a... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 18th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 18th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 17th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 17th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


2021 Early Mock ADP Values & Reaches: WPC+ Videocast

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut prepare for the 2021 fantasy baseball season with a look at early mock draft results from the RotoBaller Expert mock. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller... Read More


Statcast Season Review: 2020 Barrel Leaders (Hitters)

The 2020 MLB season will always be one for the record books, even if everything that took place will have multiple asterisks attached to it. Evaluating Statcast numbers is a nice way to find hot and cold hitters, as well as underachievers and overachievers. Now that the regular season is over, let's reflect on the... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 16th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 16th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 15th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 15th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 14th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 14th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 53: 2 Early Mocks APD Trends & More - Benched with Bubba (Episode 315)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They dig into trends, some interesting risers/fallers, and much more. They also go over some listener questions at the end to keep the Fantasy Baseball information coming even in the offseason. Be sure to subscribe... Read More