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Welcome back RotoBallers. We've logged 11 weeks of fantasy football action and I know visions of playoff seed charts are running through your minds. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). Let's get there with the best roster possible!
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Monitor the injury reports and always err on the side of high-ceiling stashes for the end of your bench if bye weeks allow it. Whatever your needs, here's my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 12.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Tyrod Taylor (QB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
6% rostered
Taylor showed off his wheels with two rushing touchdowns on Sunday, making good value while Houston’s defense shut down the Titans. TyGod didn’t need to do much with a strong lead and poor weather, but it’s encouraging to see after he returned from a lengthy injury with three interceptions in Week 9. Now the dual-threat gets to pick on a lackluster Jets D that will struggle to contain him. I will also point out that he threw a great ball to Nico Collins, who debatably caught this ball:
Ruled incomplete after the David Culley challenge, but what would have been a great catch for the touchdown by the rookie Nico Collins. Terrific throw by Tyrod Taylor. Texans kick field goal and lead 6-0 pic.twitter.com/GMmq1rMHYe
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) November 21, 2021
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
32% rostered
Lawrence hasn’t thrown for a touchdown in any of his last three games and hasn't topped 170 yards in any contest in that span either. Oh, this is supposed to be in favor of him? Well, he faces the Falcons horrid defense in Week 12! Keep an eye on Jamal Agnew’s injury status, but I’m after some volatility here and chasing his rushing upside. If you need a safer band of outcomes then take Jimmy Garoppolo (v. MIN, 28% rostered), Ben Roethlisberger (at CIN, 23% rostered), or Taylor Heinicke (v. SEA, 15% rostered).
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Ty Johnson (RB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Tevin Coleman (RB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
21% and 3% rostered
Michael Carter is out for 2-3 weeks with a high-ankle sprain, which leaves a committee of Johnson and Coleman in its wake. The box score points to Coleman, who had six touches (18 yards) to Johnson’s two (13 yards). However, Johnson is the more dynamic receiver and a better target in any PPR format, with Coleman perhaps slightly more likely to punch in any goal-line work. It's worth noting neither has a huge edge in pass pro:
The #Jets will really miss Michael Carter as a blocker too, he was a beast in that area.
Pressure rates allowed by Jets RBs:
• Ty Johnson: 19%
• Tevin Coleman: 14%
• Michael Carter: 5%— The Jet Press (@TheJetPress) November 22, 2021
Rex Burkhead (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
0% rostered
Houston running backs have rarely made headlines this year, but Burkhead looks less dusted than David Johnson while Phillip Lindsay has been a ghost. With the league-worst run defense in NYJ approaching, Burkhead’s 18 carries from Week 11 paint him as the 1A option to take advantage of the matchup. Temper expectations, but there’s hope on a shallow waiver week.
Matt Breida (RB, BUF) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
2% rostered
Breida looked like the best running back Buffalo had, running up 51 yards on just five totes next to a 16-yard catch to give him 117 yards and two TDs on just 12 touches in the last two games. That’s a strong bottom line that should force more touches moving forward in a potent offense (despite their form on Sunday).
Qadree Ollison (RB, ATL) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
0% rostered
Ollison had 12 opportunities on Thursday against New England, readily outworking Mike Davis (7 opps), Keith Smith (4 opps), and Wayne Gallman Jr. (1 opp!). Even if Cordarrelle Patterson returns as the alpha, Ollison showed life and could be the complementary back to roster here next to CPatt given Davis’ fall from favor. A juicy Week 12 date with Jacksonville looms, which gives him deeper flex appeal as a TD dart throw.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
9% rostered
Valdes-Scantling notched a jackpot with 123 yards and a score on four catches while Allen Lazard was out due to injury. MVS has seen his workload tick up since returning from a hamstring injury (with a minor hip issue thrown in), resulting in 48 snaps and 32 routes run on Sunday (compare to Davante Adams with 52 snaps and 34 routes run). Without Aaron Jones or Robert Tonyan, MVS and this WR corps is stepping up to help the hobbled Aaron Rodgers produce QB1 numbers. Jalen Ramsey should be focused on Adams, giving MVS an opportunity to crush the rest of the Rams in Week 12.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw 32.3% of Green Bay's targets today. That's his highest single-game share since Week 3 of 2019.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 22, 2021
Cedrick Wilson (WR, DAL) - FAAB Bid: 5-7%
3% rostered
With Amari Cooper out (reserve/COVID-19 list), Wilson was already slated for additional work in Week 11. That workload really ramped up once CeeDee Lamb left with a concussion, which led to Wilson garnering seven targets on 31 routes run. The four catches for 36 yards is underwhelming, but Lamb may join Cooper in missing Thanksgiving’s game and that means Wilson is deeper add in desperate waters.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 5-7%
39% rostered
Shenault may finally get a chance to make good on the hype following Jamal Agnew’s IR placement, though he saw more time in the slot on Sunday even before Agnew left the game. It was Laquon Treadwell who stepped into the perimeter role as Shenault caught all five of his targets for 50 yards. With an Atlanta matchup on the horizon, Shenault will be near my top-40 thanks to his playmaking ability and Jacksonville’s lack of excuses for involving him.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
26% rostered
Kmet should be cheap to acquire after a ghastly Week 11 that resulted in just one 12-yard catch on two targets. He’d seen at least five targets in four straight games prior to this, so I’m treating it as more of an outlier than the norm. Even if Justin Fields is out, Andy Dalton is passable versus a terrible Detroit defense and Kmet can smash that matchup if we get back to 5-8 targets.
Juwan Johnson (TE/WR, NO) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
3% rostered
Well, this blurb section was for Adam Trautman but he’s now likely out for a month. That means Johnson may have an opening here. He’s been a healthy scratch lately and Nick Vannett was active over him in Week 11, so perhaps this is a lost cause, but this is a guy who scored three touchdowns on just nine targets between Weeks 1-4 and offers a ceiling not found for most TEs. Especially ones who are below 5% rostered! It’s pure gambling at the bottom of the TE list, I know.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles Defense (at NYG) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
18% rostered
I’d prefer the Eagles were at home, but Philly still draws a turnover-prone Daniel Jones in Week 12 before another Metlife appointment with the Jets in Week 13. You’re getting a package deal here with an aggressive defense that has scored three touchdowns in its last four games. I don’t want to bank on replicating TDs but the two “NY” (cough, NJ) teams are a combined 5-14 for a reason (or three).
TDs since Week 8:
Darius Slay: 3
Lions: 3 pic.twitter.com/1c7oq31ltj— PFF (@PFF) November 21, 2021
Chicago Bears Defense (at DET) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
18% rostered
Chicago is coming off a season-high six sacks against Baltimore and may get to bully Tim Boyle and the understaffed Lions on Thanksgiving. Jared Goff may not have time to recover from his injury on the short week and that means Boyle, who threw two interceptions with just 77 passing yards, is up again. D’Andre Swift remains a monster, but there’s nothing around him. Even if Goff does play, he’s unlikely to be 100% and he’s been pretty darn bad too.
Houston Texans Defense (vs. NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
1% rostered
Not only do the Texans face the Jets at home in Week 12, but Houston is coming off two straight defensive gems. They allowed a combined 30 offensive points to Miami and Tennessee, racking up six sacks with 10 (!) turnovers generated in that span. You can laugh and claim that mistakes by opponents and pure luck lead to that, but then remember they’re facing the Jets.
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