FAB Bidding - Week 2 Waiver Wire Targets

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). Being a savvy accountant and game-theory aficionado with your leaguemates' tendencies can be a league-winner. Do you need depth with a few mid-tier options or are you going for the home run add in San Francisco?

As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.

It's difficult to toe the line between appropriate action and overreaction, but following context-aware volume is typically the best strategy. Will you be an aggressor early, looking to score those league-winners as they emerge? Or do you hold onto more funds in 2021 given the enhanced uncertainty with player availability? Whatever your attitude, here's my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 2.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston (QB, NO) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

44% rostered

Lasik Winston came out hot with a five-touchdown performance to stomp Green Bay and reward QB streamers. He had some mistakes overridden by penalties but was also dealing with a depleted WR corps, so let’s call it even-ish. Even Drew Brees poked fun at himself by saying Winston’s deep ball was something the Saints had been missing the past few seasons. That 55-yard TD was pretty! We didn’t see Taysom Hill vulture any short-yard scores but you know that day is coming. He gets Carolina’s unintimidating D next.

Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

11% rostered

Teddy B looked strong in his Broncos debut, connecting on 28-of-36 throws for 264 yards and two TDs. It’s not an overwhelming performance, but he kept things moving even after Jerry Jeudy’s high-ankle sprain took out a top weapon. Your interest in Bridgewater boils down to needing him for Weeks 2 and 3 against Jacksonville and the Jets before back-to-back games versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Tyrod Taylor (QB, HOU) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

4% rostered

Taylor was gifted a date with Jacksonville’s terrible defense in Week 1 and he splashed with 291 passing yards, a pair of TDs, and another 40 rushing yards. It’s a solid reminder that Houston isn’t the worst team in the league and their offense isn’t toxic stock. He’s still on the 2QB league fringe but don’t bury him. He only lost the starting role last season because the team doctor stabbed him in the lung by mistake. I’d rather play Taylor than Jimmy G, for sure.

Tyrod Taylor in the first half:

▫️ 14/23
▫️ 2 TD
▫️ 229 yards
▫️123 QB rating

Texans lead the Jaguars 27-7 ?

? @NFL pic.twitter.com/rso1LENkLh

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 12, 2021

Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

With Ryan Fitzpatrick now on the injured reserve with a hip injury, Heinicke looks to be Washington’s man going into a Week 2 home date with the Giants. You’ll recall Heinicke nearly played spoiler to Tom Brady’s championship run with a 300-yard game against the Bucs. I expect Antonio Gibson and the defense should be enough against “Big” Blue, but Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas can make magic happen. Do note he’d draw the Bills in Buffalo for Week 3.

Jared Goff (QB, DET) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

7% rostered

Goff can be the Lord of Garbage Time for all we care, as Detroit got to lean into San Francisco’s soft prevent defense in the second half. This resulted in 338 yards and three scores for Goff, which gives us a context-needed box score to sift through. If the Lions are so bad that they get a chance to be good against pillows in the fourth quarter then look out! This is mostly tongue-in-cheek -- an angry Aaron Rodgers should embarrass them next Monday night -- but don’t turn your nose up entirely.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs

Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF) - FAB Bid: 30-50%

6% rostered

Mitchell is the name that highlights waiver wire articles this week. Mitchell edged out Trey Sermon, who was pushed into being a healthy scratch, and then stepped up when Raheem Mostert left the game with a knee injury. With his 4.38 40-time speed, Mitchell blew past defenders for a long TD and wound up with 104 yards on 19 carries. It was announced that Mostert will miss at least eight weeks, making Mitchell a strong early add for most rosters. He played well ahead of JaMycal Hasty and already beat out Sermon, let alone the amazing performance against Detroit, so be ready to pay up. For the record, I fully approve a cheap flier on Hasty and an IR stash for Jeff Wilson Jr. if your IR slot is unoccupied.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 6-10%

8% rostered

Gainwell made noise in his NFL debut by putting up 43 yards and a TD behind Miles Sanders while Boston Scott recorded zero touches. An Ilegal Man Downfield penalty erased his first touchdown but Gainwell would not be denied. The Falcons were demoralized throughout the contest but seeing Gainwell get passing-game and goal-line usage out of the gate is promising.

Do yourself a favour and pick up Kenneth Gainwell.

35.21% Snaps
9 Rush Attempts
3 Targets
1 Red Zone Carry

Boston Scott didn't see the field.

Gainwell only had seven fewer touches than Miles Sanders.

If Sanders missed time, Gainwell could be a solid RB2.

Go grab him.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 13, 2021

Mark Ingram II (RB, HOU) - FAB Bid: 3-5%

19% rostered

Ingram’s Week 1 performance of 85 yards and a score speaks more to Jacksonville’s horrid D and Urban Meyer’s seat temperature rather than Ingram’s rest-of-season outlook. He, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay all scored TDs in the laugher, and those other two offer receiving chops that will play more when Houston is trailing. Them trailing will occur more often than playing ahead, so just be aware of the TD-dependent nature here.

Tony Jones Jr. (RB, NO) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

23% rostered

Jones had an impressive camp and proved to New Orleans that they could move on from Latavius Murray. After strong preseason bursts, Jones hit the 50-yard mark on 11 totes as the Saints trounced the Packers. Some of that volume is rooted in the tilted scoreboard, but New Orleans lacking a true No. 1 receiver may yield more work for both Jones and superstar Alvin Kamara.

Larry Rountree III (RB, LAC) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

4% rostered

Early reports indicated Justin Jackson was the No. 2 back to scoop up when Austin Ekeler’s hamstring injury scare arose, but surprise! It was Rountree who stepped up behind Ekeler (who drew headlines for not seeing a target) with eight carries for 27 yards. It’s clear that LAC views him as the change-of-pace back ahead of Jackson and Joshua Kelley and the Chargers should once again be an upper-tier offense.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) - FAB Bid: 10-15%

39% rostered

Shepard was one of 20 WRs with nine or more targets in Week 1 (entering Monday night), but his 113 yards were the sixth-most of all wideouts. New number, same talented Shepard. Health, namely concussions, have often ruined the fun, but Shep and Kenny Golladay look like a steady 1-2 punch for Daniel Jones to target. His upside is higher with Saquon Barkley still getting up to 100% and is a weekly top-36 play.

Sterling Shepard led the Giants in the following categories:

- Routes run 40
- Snaps 56
- Slot snaps 37
- Targets 9
- YAC/rec 5.6

All while averaging 10.4 air yards per target.

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 13, 2021

Nelson Agholor (WR, NE) - FAB Bid: 8-12%

33% rostered

Agholor’s first game in a Pats’ uni saw him lead NE with 72 receiving yards and Mac Jones’ first pro TD. Jakobi Meyers is likely still viewed as the 1A option -- he did draw nine targets to Agholor’s seven -- but this is a good reminder that the gap is thin. The Pats had a tough climb against Miami’s defense but Week 2 versus the Jets should yield more scoring opportunities.

Bryan Edwards (WR, LV) - FAB Bid: 5-10%

19% rostered

Edwards was invisible for most of Monday night's season opener before coming alive in the final minute plus overtime, when he secured four catches for 81 yards. He came just short of a game-winning touchdown before the Raiders somehow blew a scoring chance from the half-yard line. The hype was overshadowed by the shenanigans and Darren Waller's birthday bonanza of 19 targets. Waller is easily the team's top target and Hunter Renfrow saw nine targets as well, but Edwards was far better than Henry Ruggs III and should remain a perimeter threat for the Raiders this year.

Christian Kirk (WR, ARI) - FAB Bid: 5-10%

12% rostered

Kirk was a forgotten man in many fantasy drafts but wants us all to remember the name after hauling in two of Kyler Murray’s four passing TDs in Week 1. He would catch all five of his targets for 70 yards in all. The Cardinals won’t always have a tee-up matchup like Tennessee where DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk, and Rondale Moore can all cross the 60-yard mark. A.J. Green saw more looks than Kirk but you could see AJG’s limitations on the field. Kirk brings burst, but will Arizona remain committed to his involvement? Weeks 2 and 3 against Minnesota and Jacksonville (!) should offer more chances to stand out.

K.J. Hamler (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 5-10%
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 4-8%

1% rostered

Hamler and Patrick should ascend Denver’s depth chart in the wake of Jerry Jeudy’s high-ankle sprain. Patrick took all four of his looks in for 39 yards and a score against the Giants and beyond the Jeudy vacancy, should carry a bigger role on with Courtland Sutton’s workload being managed post-ACL injury. Week 2’s date with Jacksonville could yield tremendous profits. Now, Hamler would be the talk of the town had he brought in a long touchdown...but it bounced off of him. This meshes with reports that Hamler is a big-play guy with a more volatile set of outcomes. For fantasy, that's usually the home run that most of us are after.

.@AllbrightNFL says you need to prioritize KJ Hamler on waivers with Jeudy out.

"Tim Patrick's going to be the third-down guy, contested catch guy, but K.J.'s going to be the playmaker."

Listen to my full 21 Q's interview w/Ben on @ActionPodcasts' Fantasy Flex pod tomorrow! pic.twitter.com/9aqOsME9jr

— Samantha Previte (@SamanthaNFL) September 13, 2021

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - FAB Bid: 5-10%

12% rostered

Those who invested in the Packers need to take a deep breath and resist the panic button. Unless this is a ruse by Aaron Rodgers to be let go so he can pursue his dream as a game-show host, they’ll be fine. I realize MVS only had three catches for 17 yards, but he led the team with eight targets after a promising preseason. Breathe, relax, and look forward to a dreamy Week 2 Monday night matchup with a Lions secondary that just lost Jeff Okudah.

Cedrick Wilson (WR, DAL) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

1% rostered

Wilson joins the three-wide sets for Dallas after Michael Gallup was forced to the injured reserve with a calf strain. The Cowboys boast outrageous offensive potential, namely through the air, and Wilson is worth a deep-league flier to get in on the action. He caught all three of his targets for 24 yards after Gallup left the game against Tampa.

Van Jefferson (WR, LAR) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

2% rostered

Similar to Harris, Jefferson made a splash with a 67-yard touchdown and wound up with two catches for 80 yards. Unlike Harris, Jefferson had competition on the depth chart to beat out. He logged over double the snaps that DeSean Jackson did (34-to-14), which gives him a chance at prominence should Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp go down. And Matthew Stafford’s strong arm gives him deep-league value regardless.

Deonte Harris (WR, NO) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

4% rostered

Harris provided a deep threat for New Orleans, burning two defenders for a 55-yard score to propel his 72-yard day. He only saw two targets on a day where Jameis Winston didn’t have to press down on the gas pedal terribly hard. I don’t want to bank on one big shot each week, but he may edge out the injured Tre’Quan Smith for this role with some momentum.

K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

0% rostered

Osborn worked well ahead of Dede Westbrook as Minnesota’s No. 3 receiver, tying Justin Jefferson with nine targets while Adam Thielen commanded 10. He was a genuine part of the attack, racking up 76 yards on seven catches while Dalvin Cook also had his usual 26 touches. There’s room in this scheme for Osborn to make PPR noise unless Tyler Conklin steps up.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson (WR/TE, NO) - FAB Bid: 4-6%

11% rostered

Johnson converted all three of his targets for 21 yards and two touchdowns, including a premium bailout on a poor Winston pass into the end zone. Fellow TE Adam Trautman had six targets (also 11% rostered) and more routes run, pus New Orleans won’t generate five passing TDs per game, so keep at least one foot on the ground when making this add. But Johnson is a powerful guy with a strong frame to hit in the red zone and the bar for TE remains low.

Encouraging usage for Adam Trautman after he was utilized exclusively as an inline blocker during the preseason:

* 82% snaps
* 18 routes on Jameis’ 24 dropbacks
* Team-high 30% target share

Juwan Johnson scored twice on 10 routes and 3 targets.

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 13, 2021

Jared Cook (TE, LAC) - FAB Bid: 2-3%

26% rostered

Reports of Cook’s demise are greatly exaggerated. He stood tall in the middle of the field for Justin Herbert, drawing eight targets for five catches and 56 yards. The Chargers were in a grinder against a tough Washington front seven but the usage over Donald Parham Jr. is very encouraging. This team is set for shootouts against Dallas and Kansas City in the coming weeks, with Cook a good bet to find paydirt.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

1% rostered

If you don’t think much of Cedrick Wilson stepping in for Michael Gallup, then perhaps you feel Schultz is the true No. 3 receiver now. He drew more looks than Blake Jarwin and surely earned more work by catching everything thrown his way, bringing in six balls for 45 yards. Odds are that both Schultz and Jarwin will eat at each other’s ceiling but the Cowboys offer hope.

James O’Shaughnessy (TE, JAC) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

Jacksonville is terrible but Trevor Lawrence is talented enough to drive the offense uphill out of its defensive holes. Their trio of WRs all had at least nine targets but O’Shaughnessy also had eight targets on a day where we all bemoaned James Robinson’s underutilization. If Urban Meyer isn’t going to commit to JRob then there’s more passing work to go around and JOS is a deep-league beneficiary.

Pharaoh Brown (TE, HOU) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

0% rostered

Plenty of Houston’s focus went to their RB production, but Brown quietly logged 67 yards on four catches (five targets). He was working ahead of Jordan Akins, who was shut out on two targets. Much like Jacksonville’s situation, Houston will often find themselves playing from behind and looking for chunk plays in the second half.

FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay Packers Defense (vs DET) - FAB Bid: 1-2%

22% rostered

Even if the Lions wind up with points in garbage time, San Francisco showed us that key turnovers help balance the scales. Backing the Lions into a corner will force them to take a risks and that creates opportunities for deep drops, sacks, strip fumbles, and lofty throws to be picked.

New Orleans Saints Defense (at CAR) - FAB Bid: 0-1%

32% rostered

The Saints just made Aaron Rodgers and the Pack look lost, so what can they do against Sam Darnold? Surely they can create some errors, maybe get him seeing some ghosts.

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