2021 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - RotoBaller Staff Picks

As the 2021 MLB season approaches, it's time for the RotoBaller staff to once again reveal their favorite preseason draft sleepers.

We recently asked some of our top fantasy baseball writers to get their take on which hitters and pitchers they are targeting the most in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While you've likely heard some of these names already in our Sleepers section, we wanted to lay it all out for you in one convenient place.

Let's find out who our experts have identified as the best values based on current ADP.

Which hitter outside the top 150 is your favorite sleeper?

Nick Senzel has been written off by a lot of people after a disappointing 2020 campaign where he had a .186/.247/.357 slash line with two homers and two steals in 23 games. Senzel missed a month of the season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis and when he returned, finished the year just 2-for-25. Reds manager David Bell has already said Senzel is their starting center fielder and projections have Senzel hitting 17-19 homers and stealing 15-17 bases in around 130 games, all with a decent batting average of ~.250-.260. If he stays healthy and plays 150 games, Senzel could easily have a 20/20 season. He’s a light version of Kyle Tucker, going ~220 picks later.  -Jamie Steed

Anthony Santander. He cut down his strikeouts last year while continuing to hit around .260 and increased his power. He's playing his home games in a great hitters' park and is being projected for 25-30 homers. He's just outside the top 150, but sign me up for grabbing him a round or two before that. -Dan Palyo

Few things confuse me more than Jorge Soler having an ADP of 150. Soler was a top-75 pick in 2020 after hitting 48 HR with 117 RBI in 2019 but busted out after hitting just 8 HR in 174 PA, with a .228 AVG. What happened? An oblique injury on September 2 which eventually landed him on the IL a week later, that's what happened. Sometimes answers are simple. Soler had just 27 PA in September, posting a .120 AVG, with one run and two RBI. But his 18.0 Brl% stayed in the same 98th-percentile that it was in 2019, and his Air% (100+ mph) actually rose from the 96th-percentile in 2019, to the 100th-percentile in 2020. Call me (and Okham) not worried. -Nick Gaut

Justin Upton. I was a year early on JUp's bounce-back season, but you can't hold 2020 against me! Last year was ugly, but did you know in his last 67 PA he hit five HR with a .284 BA? His EV and LA were both career highs, and it has carried over into Cactus League play where he's already blasted three bombs in just 10 games. He's hitting over 30 bombs this year. He's hitting over 100 RBI this year. His ADP is ludicrous. -JB Branson

Taylor Trammell has been a top prospect and Futures Game MVP bit lost some of his luster after a pair of trades. He may have landed in the ideal place in Seattle, as he can easily win the left field job and that's exactly what he's doing in the spring. Trammell is batting .303 in his first 33 at-bats of spring training and has the glove to provide superior defense. His best asset is speed, however, and that's where his fantasy value lies. The Mariners have been in the top-three in SB attempts per game the past two years and a player like Trammell with 70-grade speed will get the green light every time. The chance to get 25+ steals with a last-round pick gets the green light from me. -Pierre Camus

Ty France has showcased a lot of power in the minors and has continued showcasing the power this spring. He should hit in the middle of the Mariners lineup and brings awesome positional flexibility in most formats. -Brian Entrekin

It's Clint Frazier time in New York and fantasy managers should get on board. Yes, the Yankees have a logjam of outfielders, no it should not affect Frazier who was named the starting left fielder by manager Aaron Boone. Frazier was a top prospect for a long time and the fact New York didn't trade him at any of the last three trade deadlines tells me how highly-regarded he is by the Yankees' brass. He slashed .267/.394/.511 last season and there should be more seasons like that to come as he enters his prime years. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Clint Frazier. Playing as a starter will boost his confidence and the team's confidence in him. This will be the breakout year. -Scott Engel

I like Shohei Ohtani on both sides of the baseball, but his time as a sleeper might be over given how well he's played in Spring Training. Beyond Ohtani, I think Miguel Sano is crazy underpriced. He's going to be super-streaky, but he crushed the ball in 2020: 95.2 EV, 115.8 maxEV, 22.9% Brl%, and a 57.3% HardHit%. The contact issues are real, but the power should compensate for the batting average. -David Emerick

Which pitcher outside the top 150 is your favorite sleeper?

Taijuan Walker learned a new approach in Toronto and should finally realize his tremendous potential in New York. -Scott Engel

Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are going to get innings and be valuable for fantasy managers. It won't necessarily be conventional roto value, but they're going to provide good ratios, strikeouts, and some wins. For leagues with Holds as a category, I can see these two being players worth taking inside the top-100. -David Emerick

Both Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize struggled mightily in their rookie seasons, posting an ERA north of 5.00. Skubal had a reasonable SIERA of 4.12 but also struck out far more batters than Mize with a strong 27.6% K%. So far this spring, Skubal has been dominant with no runs allowed and a 12-3 K-BB rate in eight innings. He has tremendous upside and the benefit of a pitcher-friendly home park to boot. -Pierre Camus

Aaron Civale has made adjustments to his mechanics, resembling similar changes from Lucas Giolito. The adjustments have allowed for more consistent command and the addition of another quality pitch. Civale should also be another Cleveland pitcher to throw a ton of innings which is critical this season. -Brian Entrekin

Tyler Mahle is sitting there at 181, and I am a big fan. He's been trending up the last several years and I firmly believe the Reds' pitching staff knows how to get the most out of their guys. If his secondary pitches continue to improve he's going to be really good. -Dan Palyo

I fully believe in the changes Tyler Mahle made last season and am highly invested in the 26-year-old Cincinnati Red. Mahle reinvented his slider last season and it unlocked his whole arsenal en-route to a carer year. Some have doubted his success as a small-sample fluke, but this was a different pitcher last season and the adjustments he made should help his success carry over into 2021. -Mike Schwarzenbach

Eduardo Rodriguez is the biggest ADP value in the entire sport this season. Yes, he had heart issues last year from COVID that forced him to miss 2020's short charade. But he is one year removed from 19 W, 200 IP, 213 K, 3.81 ERA. Do people not realize how valuable that would be this season? He is the main workhorse in that rotation and he is healthy. You can play Dr. all you want and try to think you know stuff that you actually have zero clue about - but he's cruising this spring with 11.2 IP, 14 K, 2.31 ERA, and 0.69 WHIP, and I'm enjoying the easy easy value so keep fading, please. -JB Branson

Sean Manaea’s light has diminished the last couple of years and he’s been tagged as a high injury-risk pitcher, which is a little unfair. Manaea did hit the IL each of the three seasons between 2016-18, although two stints were just the minimum 15 days and one was 37 days. Then came the shoulder surgery that saw him miss nearly all of 2019. But he’s now healthy and made 11 starts in 2020. Although Manaea’s ERA last year was a career-high 4.50, he did have a 3.77 xFIP and 4.01 SIERA. Manaea won’t strike out too many batters (career 19.7% K%) but his control is very good (career 6.1% BB%) and his groundball tendency (career 44.6% GB%) plays perfectly for his very good infield defense. The A’s offense should also get Manaea a solid number of wins too and he’ll be a great ratio helper among your fantasy pitching staff. -Jamie Steed

Good god! Is that Drew Smyly's music?! After not pitching in 2017-18, the world may have thought that Smyle-time was over but he dramatically reappeared for 2019, sporting a 6.24 ERA over 114 IP. Not great. But over 26 IP for the Giants last season, he posted a 3.42 ERA and a 37.8% K%. This isn't small-sample wackiness; Smyly's fastball averaged 94 mph (nearly a 3 mph boost) and he threw his new and improved curveball 35%, garnering a 23.8% SwStr% that was second only to Shane Bieber (min. 150 curveballs). -Nick Gaut

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