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The Chicago Cubs suddenly have some openings in their rotation after jettisoning Yu Darvish in the offseason to, uh, not save money at all because that's totally not why they did it. Although we can agree that the additions of Zach Davies and Trevor Williams alongside Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills make this staff a strong contender for softest-tossing starting five in baseball, still-rookie Adbert Alzolay may come along and mess it all up.
Alzolay first partook in a cup of coffee in 2019 by appearing in four games, starting two for the Cubs. It didn't go so well, as he walked nine and allowed 10 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. His 2020 was far better, which is something most of us can't say. Over the course of 21 1/3 innings, Alzolay posted a 2.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and struck out 29 batters. That 33.3% K% ranked in the top 10 percentile and mimics his performance at Triple-A in 2019.
Alzolay may enter the season as the fifth starter on a declining Cubs team but he could emerge as the most valuable pitcher for fantasy leagues.
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Profile
Alzolay has good, but not quite elite velocity on his fastball that he utilizes more than half the time. It sits at 95 MPH regularly and can hit up to 98. It's mainly used to set up his slider, which can be devastating. The movement generated on both, particularly the down and away action against right-handed hitters on his slider, is what has led to a 36.8% and 37.7% Whiff rate on the pitch in his first two Major League stints.
He's been painted as a flyball pitcher yet according to Statcast data available on BaseballSavant, he had a 29.7% flyball rate in 2019 and an absurdly low 15.9% FB% in 2020. Granted, small sample size caveats apply but those are not the type of figures you'd expect from someone who is prone to allowing a ton of flies. Home runs could be a concern based on 2019 data alone but he regularly kept a HR/9 below 1.00 in the low minors and was at 0.42 HR/9 in 2020. He doesn't pitch in an environment prone to homer issues, so this shouldn't be a major problem.
If there is something to be worried about, it's his 15% walk rate over the first 33 2/3 innings of Major League action. This is the first hurdle to clear for nearly all young pitchers but it must be addressed before he can be counted on in reality and fantasy.
All told, there's enough inconsistency in his control and batted ball data to ascertain that we can't be quite sure what we're getting in 2021. It's safe to say that the K upside remains very high, however, and he'll get every chance to keep a rotation spot during the season.
2021 Outlook
Alzolay is mostly an afterthought in early drafts, coming in at 325 overall. The back end of drafts is filled with talented, young pitchers worth a flier. The advantage afforded by Alzolay is that he doesn't carry any of the red flags common in so many others. His rotation spot isn't guaranteed, of course, but he is projected as a favorite to earn a job come Opening Day. He did have some lat issues in 2018 but isn't a TJS survivor (yet) and doesn't have a recent history of serious injuries. Wrigley Park is not particularly hitter-friendly, ranking in the bottom-10 in HR Factor the last two seasons. Finally, his placement in the NL Central will work to his advantage, even with a more balanced schedule in 2021, as he still gets to face lesser offenses like the Pirates and Brewers. The Cardinals and Reds qualify as good not great offenses.
Alzolay has tantalizing upside and, dare I use the term, "breakout" potential. For the small investment required to roster him on draft day, he is certainly worth a look alongside similar prospects such as Tarik Skubal and Nate Pearson, except with lesser name recognition and hype. For what it's worth, teammate Brennen Davis is a believer:
Love this on Alzolay. pic.twitter.com/W0BLAmTkIE
— Brad (@ballskwok) February 5, 2021
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