RADIO
If you didn't get enough of a fix on Friday night, we have one of the best Saturday night NBA slates we've seen in some time. The earliest games tip at 8:00 PM and we have only one game that is projected to be a potential blowout with a double-digit spread. Three games tonight also feature playoff teams facing off against each other with the Bucks-Warriors being the premiere matchup on the slate. My ATS picks were strong yesterday (3-1) with the only team to let us down being the Wolves who lost to Orlando on the road. I wish I could say the same for player props, however, but I went 1-3 there as Darius Garland struggled with his three-point shooting, and Deandre Ayton and Spencer Dinwiddie came up just a few stats short of their marks.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, March 12, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 129-117-2
- Against the Spread 67-55-2
- Over/Under 28-37
- Other/Props 34-26
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Indiana Pacers (+5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (235.5 total)
Listen, I don't want to keep picking the Spurs but the universe keeps putting me in a position to do so. They pulled out a close win against a good Utah team last night, once again proving that they're one of the better teams in the NBA with a losing record, or maybe just proving that Utah isn't the contender we thought they might be this season.
I was set to cross this game off and maybe just bet the over (but it's already pretty high for my liking) but Malcolm Brogdon is out for the Pacers tonight. His absence is huge as the Pacers have been pretty respectable with him in the lineup since he returned. Without him, they'll have to lean harder on Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Chris Duarte. Those young guys can score, but they don't bring the same defensive presence or veteran decision-making that Brodgon does.
I was looking for trends to back up a fade of this pick but couldn't find any. Is San Antonio worse on back-to-backs? Nope. Maybe they're not good after wins? Nope. The reality is when San Antonio is playing well, they're significantly better than the bottom-tier teams and can knock off some good teams. Hopefully, they don't play down to the competition tonight and can cover this moderate 5.5 point spread.
The Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-110)
UPDATE: THIS PICK IS WITHDRAWN! San Antonio is resting their top three players in Murray, Poeltl, and Keldon Johnson.
Washington Wizards (-7) @ Portland Trail Blazers (218.5 total)
I was hoping to see Washington like -5 or -6, but they're already to -7. I mentioned yesterday I don't like laying that many points but this situation demands it. Portland has been quite literally the worst team in the NBA over their last ten games with a whopping -16 net rating. They've gone full tank mode and look to have even shut down their lone young stud in Anfernee Simons, too. They're rolling out a bunch of guys who would normally be in the G-league every night and just getting absolutely stomped, losing by 48, 43, 30, 32, and 37 over the last two weeks. That's just absolutely nuts!
The Wizards hung with the Lakers until the late third quarter last night and have Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup and playing well. Assuming he's not rested here on a back-to-back (there's been no indication so far that he will be), he should dominate tonight and Washington should roll. I have them projected to win by 10 or more so even if this line moves (and it should) a little more towards the Wizards, I still like them quite a bit.
The Pick: Wizards -7 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (226 total)
This should be a good game and after laying an egg last night in Orlando, I expect Minnesota to bounce back here and play up to their competition as they face the current #1 seed in the East here. Both these teams have exceeded expectations so far this season and are well on their way to the playoffs, but Minnesota has much less room for error.
We are looking at the total here, not the spread anyway, but I think a competitive game goes a long way towards this game going over like I think it can. Both teams are playing their second game in two nights and they both have strong trends supporting their game totals going over without any rest. Miami has gone over their total in nine of eleven games with a +10.9 point differential while Minnesota has gone over in nine of twelve games with a +5.9 point differential.
Sometimes you have to go with trends over the model, which still has this game under by a few points. The overall trend is higher scoring games across the league in the last month, too. Miami and Cleveland combined for 222 points last night and the Wolves are a much better offensive team than Cleveland. Miami will surely get theirs tonight against a poor Minny defense, we just need the Wolves to be efficient on offense.
The Pick: OVER 226 (-110)
Toronto Raptors (+6) @ Denver Nuggets (225 total)
After I just got done saying scoring is up across the league I'm now trying to convince you to take an under here. While my point projections have been far from perfect, this total projection warrants consideration as I have it coming in over eight points below Vegas - by far the most on this slate. Denver was a team we hit with unders quite often earlier in the year and then their defense kind of disappeared for a while. During their recent surge (8-2 over their last ten games), however, they have the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA. And Toronto is only place behind them at 7th.
I like the Nuggets to win, but most importantly I think this game becomes a grinder. Neither team plays fast and this game projects to have the slowest pace of any tonight at only around 96 possessions which is nearly three fewer than league average. Toronto scored 117 in a big win against Phoenix last night, but I don't see Gary Trent Jr. being able to repeat his 8-11 shooting performance from downtown again. I'm comfortably on the under here.
The Pick: UNDER 225 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
5:00 PM UPDATE
Klay Thompson over 2.5. threes (-170) - A lot of juice on this prop but a nice little parlay builder. Thompson is getting up a bunch of three-point attempts but hasn't been shooting a great percentage lately. He's a 36% shooter on the season, though, and that means if he takes 8-9 attempts tonight he should get three and the Bucks allow the most three-point attempts in the league. This is a great environment for stats, too.
Tyrese Haliburton over 32.5 PRA (-125) - No Brogdon tonight and an elite matchup against the Spurs poor defense. The Spurs resting three starters means Indiana should have a decent shot of winning and for Haliburton to pile up stats.
Rui Hachimura over 17.5 PRA (-115) - No Porzingis at PF for the Wizards tonight means we should see Hach continue to get solid run. In his last two games, he's come off the bench and played 24 and 25 minutes, compiling 22 PRA in both contests. I love him in this spot against the terrible Portland team.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: WAS/UTA/DEN/SAS money line parlay (+220)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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