RADIO
Oh man, we were so close to another perfect night! Player props went a perfect 4-0, the Heat blew out the Hornets, and the Bucks cruised over their team total. But the last two bets missed by one point each! The Grizzlies tied the game against Utah at the buzzer and then proceeded to lose by six in overtime. I went to bed with the Suns having 98 points after three quarters thinking they'd surely cover their 121.5 team total only to wake up and see they scored only 23 points in the fourth after pulling their starters in a convincing win over the Lakers. 6-2 is still a solid night and the model was right about a few other spots, so I am happy about that and ready to drop some more picks today for this six-game NBA slate.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, April 6, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 188-161-2
- Against the Spread 83-71-2
- Over/Under 36-46
- Player Props 69-44
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks
Dallas Mavericks (-9) @ Detroit Pistons (220 total)
The Pistons are 20-12 this season ATS as home underdogs and have been quite friendly to bettors in the second half of the NBA season as they've been covering as hefty underdogs quite often. They've won three games in a row now, including a surprising upset of the Sixers last Thursday. As soon as I saw this spread this high, I knew I'd likely be in on the Pistons with the points here.
Let's talk about Dallas though for a minute. I respect what they've done this season and how they've managed to get the most of their role players. They are a really good, probably underrated team and Luka is a star. However, their recent results are a bit screwy. They just beat the defending champion Bucks by six on the road but also lost by 32 to Washington the game before. Perhaps the Washington loss was fluky, but I do think they tend to play down or up to their competition a bit.
I'm taking the improved Pistons to cover here, though I do think Dallas wins.
The Pick: Pistons +9 (-110 DK)
Brooklyn Nets (-7) @ New York Knicks (232 total)
The Nets beat Houston last night, but let them hang around a bit longer than they should have and the Rockets trimmed the lead to 10 points in the fourth quarter at one point. Brooklyn has to turn around and play the Knicks tonight in a game that will likely be tougher than you (or they) might think.
The Knicks were one of only a few teams off last night and have the rest advantage here. Those splits are something I look at every day, but I usually don't weigh them a ton unless I see some major trends. Brooklyn is only 3-9-1 ATS this season on back-to-backs and the Knicks are 12-8 ATS when they have the rest advantage. Those two trends paired together make for a compelling case for the Knicks.
And then when we look at the season series, it only confirms my Knicks pick! Consider that even though Brooklyn is 3-0 against New York this season, they've won those three games by a combined 10 total points (an average margin of victory of 3.3 points).
So I'm in on the Knicks as home dogs to cover, but I also like this total and you can see in the model it's way over where I would expect it to be. I have this game much closer to a typical NBA game with a projected 222 total. And again, when we look at the season series, we see that the totals of the first three matchups were 222, 217, and 217. So I'm grabbing the spread and total here in this one.
The Pick: Knicks +7 (-110 DK)
Bonus Pick: UNDER 232 (-110 DK)
Washington Wizards (+10.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (231 total)
The Wizards are getting absolutely no respect with this line, despite beating a playoff team last night by 18 points on the road. Washington has been pretty decent down the stretch and while they lost by 40 to Boston (who is just playing at an unreal level right now), they also have an impressive win against Dallas in their most recent five-game stretch.
I just really never, ever trust the Hawks - and if you have read this column this year, you know that. I had the Raptors covering against them yesterday and it was the one pick I was really on but didn't include based on not enough supporting trends. The Hawks are just really poor on defense and missing John Collins' inside presence late in the season. With both teams having played yesterday, the advantage here in the trends goes to Washington, who has been one of the best teams with no rest (8-4) while Atlanta has been one of the worst (5-10) this season ATS.
Again, this is just too big of a number, and as I said with the Detroit-Dallas game, I'm definitely more inclined to take some worthy underdogs with the points today than I am jumping on heavier favorites.
The Pick: Wizards +10.5 (-110 DK)
Boston Celtics (-7) @ Chicago Bulls (222 total)
I wanted to include something from this game earlier this morning, but still don't feel good about laying seven points on the road with the Celtics, despite the overwhelming support for them to handle the Bulls in this one. Chicago gets Zach LaVine back, but their still struggling defensively and have allowed 116 points per game over their last ten. They're fading down the stretch and their defense is going to be what prevents them from making a run in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Boston is surging and scoring points in the process of racking up wins. They're averaging 123 points per game over their last ten and we rode their team total the other day in another good spot. This total is surprisingly low to me with Chicago being on the second half of a back-to-back and I want to take advantage of that by jumping on the Boston total at only 115.5. They've scored exactly 114 points in each of their first two meetings with the Bulls this season, but those games were much earlier in the season when Chicago was playing much better defense and Boston wasn't in such great offensive form.
Celtics team total over 115.5 (-115 DK)
Phoenix Suns (+2.5) @ L.A. Clippers (229.5 total)
I'm totally backing off the Suns here as they've moved from -3 to +2.5 as bettors are anticipating that they rest guys tonight. If they play their guys, then maybe jump on them as underdogs but this is no longer a bet I endorse until we know who is playing for Phoenix.
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Al Horford over 22.5 PRA (-105 DK) - If it ain't broke, don't fix it! Big Al has hit his PRA prop three straight times since taking over at center for Robert Williams III and today gets a Bulls team playing their second game in two nights. He's about as reliable as they come as a rebounder and passer, and usually scores just enough to put him into the 25-30 PRA range with starters' minutes.
Obi Toppin over 26.5 PRA (-120) - Toppin has finally been given big minutes for the Knicks late in the season with Julius Randle shut down and has 28 and 31 PRA in his most recent two starts at PF. I think the Knicks keep this one close and Toppin gets there.
Dorian Finney-Smith over 1.5 3PM (-175 DK) - DFS didn't get there last time for us, but is in another good spot for him here against Detroit. The Pistons allow a lot of open looks for spot-up shooters and DFS gets most of his shots up on offense on spot-up threes when Luka penetrates. He just needs two tonight and shoots the long ball around 39%. He has two threes or more in 8 or his last 10 games.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
No parlays today, make some of your own using my model!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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