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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I hope you enjoyed Opening Day and now we're right back at it again with 13 games on tap today. We had a tough day yesterday, finishing 1-1 as the Brewers failed to capitalize on opportunities following a rough Corbin Burnes outing. Today is another day though, and I as well as the entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening weekend and throughout the season as a whole. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Friday, April 8, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 1-1, -0.51 units
- Sides: 1-1, -0.51 units
- Totals: 0-0
- Notes: This is where I will usually recap my results from the last day I made picks.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SF -142
MIA: Sandy Alcantara | SF: Logan Webb
I'll start off today's slate with the matinee matchup between Miami and San Francisco. What should be a fun game to watch if you're a fan of good pitching, these two teams send their respected aces to the mound for Opening Day.
On the mound for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who's coming off of a quality season where he logged a 3.19 ERA and 3.45 xFIP across 33 starts. Alcantara started two games against the Giants in 2021, allowing six earned runs across 11.1 innings pitched. He'll be squaring off with Logan Webb, who continued to positively regress in 2021, finishing the season with a 3.03 ERA and a 2.79 xFIP across 26 starts. He logged eight strikeouts in seven shutout innings in his only start against Miami last season.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the Giants at -142 in this one, giving them implied odds of 58.67%. My model gives the Giants a 65.89% chance of winning with a final score of 4.34-3.2, creating some nice expected value (+7.22%). While I think the Marlins will turn out better than expected this season, I'll back the Giants in front of their own fans.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAA -110
HOU: Jake Odorizzi | LAA: Reid Detmers
The Astros and Angels squared off last night with the Astros squeaking by in a 3-1 win off the back of an excellent start by Framber Valdez. I can't anticipate a repeat starting performance from Jake Odorizzi tonight, as Odorizzi is coming off a 2021 season where he logged a 4.21 ERA and 4.82 xFIP across 23 starts. I don't anticipate him going deep into this game, coming off just one spring training start where he pitched just two innings.
On the mound for the Angels tonight is Reid Detmers. Detmers seemed to have created some optimism through spring training, where he threw 5.2 innings across two starts, allowing three earned runs and striking out 13. He looks to bounce back in 2022 following a 2021 campaign where he logged a 7.40 ERA and a 5.86 xFIP across five starts.
Although I said yesterday that I try to play it safe early on in the year, we have some value here that I can't pass up. The Astros are listed at -106 tonight, good for 50.5% implied odds. My model gives them a 63.35% chance of winning with a final score of 5.53-4.13, good for a +11.89% value difference. I'll look for the Astros bullpen, who shut down the Angels' offense last night, to do the same today while their offense welcomes Detmers to the 2022 regular season.
Pick: Houston Astros ML (-106), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!
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