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Every once in a while, we get complicated players to analyze who may not necessarily fit the parameters of a normal career arc.
These players can get forgotten in the grand scheme of things mostly because they probably have flashed some sort of talent, but the main problem remains: they haven't been available.
The Seattle Seahawks' RB Rashaad Penny is a great example of this. We're going to dive into what his career has been like up until this point and what we can expect for this season in terms of fantasy football production, since he closed the 2021 season on a hyper-productive run that led the Seahawks to re-sign him.
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The History
Back in 2017, Penny rushed for the 5th most yards all time in a season with 2,248. When he was drafted by Seattle with the 27th pick in the first round the following spring, he was given very favorable notes. Pete Carroll referred to him as "a three-down back that can do everything for us, including returning". It was very apparent that the team had high hopes for him.
We all know what happened next. Penny started off the summer with a minor finger fracture in August, then had a knee sprain that, while only making him miss two games, clearly bothered him for the rest of the season and he fell behind Carson in the pecking order. He had a very solid 100-yard game in the middle, but was mostly a reserve runner. In 2019, Penny had an okay start and then suffered a Grade 2 thigh strain that caused him to miss three games. The hammer came when he went down with a torn ACL in Week 14 after having 70+ yards and a touchdown in the 2 prior games.
In 2020, the knee clearly was not right and Penny spent almost the entire season on the PUP list, being activated for but not playing a snap the rest of the season. At this point, Penny's value was so low that they declared they would not be exercising his fifth-year option, so he was essentially playing for his career in 2021.
He did have another couple injuries this past season but ultimately was able to stay healthy through the back third of the season and posted some insane totals, rushing for 671 yards and six touchdowns in his final five games. During this stretch he had eight runs of 25 or more yards, tied for the most in the entire season with All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor, who had 332 carries to Penny's 119. DraftSharks gives him a 65% chance of staying completely healthy in 2022 and projects him to miss 1.9 games with injuries.
What Happens Now?
Penny is going off the board as RB30 according to 4for4's Underdog Fantasy Data. Landing back with Seattle in free agency on a 1 year, $5.75m deal probably wasn't the best place for fantasy football that he could have signed with, but from an NFL standpoint probably makes the best sense given that they know him better than another team and can maximize his strengths. Chris Carson is slated to be back, but with that neck stinger from last season still hovering over him, it's a better bet that Penny is leading this team on the early downs.
With the departure of Russell Wilson from the team and the arrival of big-armed Drew Lock, I would imagine that Carroll runs a solid amount of play-action but focuses heavily on establishing the run game early behind Penny and Carson. The team will presumably still have top receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, so as long as Lock can get the downfield passing game working for him, Carroll should give Penny a bunch of work.
The real question a lot of people have posed is "well, what about the fact that Penny only has 23 receptions in 3 seasons?" You would be right to ask that question. Penny definitely seems like the type of running back that does not catch a lot of passes. Hold on a second there, though. Wilson was never heavily reliant on checkdowns, only mustering a 3.1% checkdown rate on third down from 2018-2020 (PFF). While he can run, it's not a big part of his game so Lock should checkdown more frequently than Wilson chose to, and will probably have less freedom from Carroll to go off-script. Penny also boasted a 10.3% College Target Share, which ranked in the 79th percentile. Maybe there's more than meets the eye when it comes to Penny's pass-catching.
Penny's 2022 Fantasy Outlook
Much of what we see from Penny this upcoming season will rightfully so depend on his health. It is still a major question and it's normal to be skeptical about a player who has been injured for nearly 75% of his professional career. I urge you to look past that though, as Penny finally seemed to put it all together for that final 2021 stretch and showed true RB1 upside. I currently have Penny ranked as my RB18 for PPR. We saw Damien Harris post a top-15 fantasy season in PPR last year with not a large receiving production, so I am confident that Penny can follow in his footsteps.
Running back has recently been a very difficult position to find true consistency at. It's nice to be able to have a nice value at the position. Carroll will happily give him the work – it's up to Penny now to go out on the gridiron and show the world that he is finally ready to shed the injury and become the running back that the Seahawks drafted him to be.
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