RADIO
The teams that were supposed to win last night did just that as both Brooklyn and Minnesota qualified for the playoffs and locked up the #7 seeds in their respective conferences. The Cavs were down big early but came back to cover for us. The Clippers-Wolves game was tight throughout, but L.A. led heading into the fourth quarter before being held to only 20 points in the final frame. They didn't cover, nor did they hit their team total. Props were looking good as Garland hit his number with ease and Paul George had two steals in the first quarter. But Reggie Jackson ended up one point shy of his prop and Zubac just two points or boards shy of his. It's a 3-3 start to the playoffs and we live to fight another day.
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This is the first postseason betting picks piece, so I will reset my record for the playoffs. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, April 13, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 3-3
- Against the Spread 1-1
- Over/Under 0-1
- Player Props 2-2
NBA Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (+5) @ Atlanta Hawks (236 total)
We have two tough games to pick tonight as both games have spreads that hover right in the five-point range where it's just tempting enough to grab the underdog and you worry that the favorite might win a close game and fail to cover. I'm going to end up with one favorite and one dog on this slate and spoiler alert - this game doesn't feature the underdog.
As much as Charlotte has played better down the stretch, I still have Atlanta rated as the better team. When we factor in the home-court advantage, that boost takes them up over five points and I have them winning here by six or even seven. Trae Young has been here before and led Atlanta to two series wins over the Knicks and Sixers (major upset) last year before eventually bowing out to the champion Bucks. Trae will be the best player on the floor tonight and this Atlanta offense has a bigger advantage against the Charlotte defense than Charlotte's offense does against Atlanta's defense.
John Collins continues to be out, but the Hawks will continue to lean on guys like DeAndre Hunter and Danilo Gallinari and play a lot of small ball with a bunch of shooters around Young while Capela mans the middle.
Now about this total. My model suggests the total is right about where it should be however we saw both games last night go under their totals by quite a bit. In playoff games, we tend to see the defenses step up and offenses value each possession more which can also slow down the pace. When we look at the four games between these two teams this year, only one of them went over 236 points and that was an overtime game that didn't even feature the Hornets regulars. The other three games came in well below this total. I'm angling for the under here and hoping that the Hawks can pull away late to cover five points. I wish it were 3-4 points, but I'm definitely not confident enough in the Charlotte side to back them here.
The Picks: Hawks -5 (-110 DK), UNDER 236 total points
San Antonio Spurs (+5.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (227 total)
You knew it was coming, right? If you're new to my picks, then perhaps you don't know of my somewhat weird fascination with the Spurs. Listen, San Antonio won us some money this year, right? And they're going to have the best player on the floor, right (sorry McCollum and Ingram, but Dejounte Murray is THAT guy)?
I'd love to see the Spurs win here as I've grown fond of watching them this season and what Murray did this year was simply phenomenal, he's so good. I have nothing against the Pelicans and their transformation from a bottom-dweller to a better-than-average team after the McCollum trade was impressive.
Something has to give here, though. I give the coaching advantage to the Spurs as Gregg Popovich has been in more big games than anyone. When we look at matchups, Jakob Poeltl is not far behind Jonas Valanciunas on the interior. Keldon Johnson is an emerging stud in his own right and closer to Brandon Ingram's talent level than most people realize. CJ and DJM are close, but I think Murray is harder to stop and a better defender.
The season series doesn't help us all that much. The Spurs did win three of four meetings, but two of those games took place before McCollum came to New Orleans. They split the two most recent meetings with one of those games being a fluky blowout where San Antonio didn't show up and Pop yanked all the starters very early.
I'm not saying they win (but I might put a little money on their ML anyway), but the Spurs cover here. I have this game pretty close to even and there's really no good reason that the Pelicans should be favored by this much. Go Spurs, in Dejounte, we trust!
The Pick: Spurs +5.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
LaMelo Ball over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-110 DK)
LaMelo has taken over as the main distributor lately and seen his assist totals rise while Terry Rozier's have declined. He's also an elite rebounder at his position. He averages a little over 14 boards/assists per game but in only 32 minutes. I expect we see him for 36 minutes or even more tonight as the Hornets are facing elimination and will likely play their core guys more minutes than they did in the regular season. More playing time should equate to more counting stats for LaMelo.
Clint Capela over 12.5 rebounds (-135 DK)
This one is already juiced up and I won't be surprised if it moves to 13.5 sometime today. Everyone knows by now that the Hornets give up a ton of rebounds to opposing centers so it's no secret. Capela averaged 13 boards per game against them this year across four contests, hitting this number in three out of four of those games. Anytime we can project Capela for around 30 minutes, he's a good bet for around 14-15 boards as he is one of the best per-minute rebounders in the NBA.
Dejounte Murray over 17.5 rebounds/assists (-105 DK)
Murray is the best stat stuffer in the league at the point guard position. And I'm taking a similar approach here that I did with LaMelo. Even if his shot isn't falling, Murray's rebounding and assist rates are high enough that he should rack up counting stats with increased playing time in an elimination game. His PRA was up over 40 and he could very easily hit that too, but I'm trying to find some of the safest angles I can!
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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