RADIO
We've reached the final two games of the play-in tournament tonight and for these four clubs, everything is on the line as two teams will qualify for the playoffs while two others will be forced to watch from the outside looking in. Failing to make the playoffs would be a disappointing finish for all four of these clubs who each at various points this season had high expectations placed on them. The Hawks and Clippers are both teams who were in the Conference Finals last year. The Pelicans were expected to contend before losing Zion Williamson for the entire year and resurrected their season through the midseason trade for C.J. McCollum. And then you have my beloved Cavaliers, who had zero expectations placed on them at the beginning of the year but raced out to a 35-21 record and at one point were as high as the #4 seed in the East before finishing 9-17 down the stretch and falling into the play-in tourney.
Wednesday my bets finished 3-3 again with the Hawks and the under in their game both hitting. But the Spurs couldn't cover and player props went only 1-2. That leaves me at 6-6 through two playoff slates. I've got picks for both games tonight and some props and then this weekend we will have two four-game slates on both Saturday and Sunday so make sure you keep following me throughout the postseason!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 6-6
- Against the Spread 2-2
- Over/Under 1-1
- Player Props 3-3
I updated my picks for the late game since Paul George has now been ruled out for the Clippers!
NBA Betting Picks
Atlanta Hawks (-2) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (225 total)
THIS GAME IS SO HARD FOR ME TO PICK! I'm so emotionally invested in this Cavs team and I will be incredibly disappointed if their season ends tonight. From a fan's perspective, it's been really fun to watch the young group of players in Cleveland bring the franchise back to relevancy. From a basketball analyst's perspective, it's been equally enjoyable watching their brand of basketball as they bucked the trend of small ball and opted to play multiple 7-footers at a time and attempt to bludgeon teams with rebounding and defense. This team has experienced a lot of adversity, losing Collin Sexton for the season and then Ricky Rubio, who was playing some of the best basketball of his career filling in for Sexton. And then losing center Jarrett Allen for the final month of the season proved too much for the Cavs to withstand and they faded badly at the end.
From a betting perspective, the Cavs have been good to us this year and covered the spread even in their loss on Tuesday night. They were great as underdogs all season long and finished 24-17-2 ATS.
So where does that leave me on this game? Well, there are a few factors I mention before we get to the pick. The Hawks won the season series 3-1 and have won the last three meetings between the teams, even blowing out the Cavs in their most recent meeting. The Hawks still won't have John Collins and have listed Bogdan Bogdanovic questionable but I doubt that he sits such an important game out with what seems like just a nagging ankle sprain.
The Cavs have listed Jarrett Allen as a game-time decision but everything I have read seems to indicate that he is going to warm up with the intention to play. He's dealing with a broken finger but has been making progress towards a return for some time now. I think he absolutely will play tonight with the season on the line it's just a matter of how effective is he going to be after a month off and dealing with the injury? As long as he can rebound and defend the paint with his shot-blocking prowess, I think that's all Cleveland can ask for and his return would be a big boon to the Cavs chances as they could reduce Kevin Love and Lauri Markannen's minutes.
No matter how I run these numbers, they keep coming back with this game as a pick-em, even if with the Hawks having the much better recent form. I think the line here reflects a lot of recency bias with the way in which the Hawks blew out the Hornets on Wednesday and the Cavs trailed Brooklyn throughout. I'm pot-committed to the Cavs this year and I really can't pick against them with Allen coming back. I think they find a way to win somehow, I am not sure how, but I've seen enough of their games this season to know not to bet against them or underestimate them.
The Picks: Cavs ML (+115)
New Orleans Pelicans (-1) @ L.A. Clippers (216 total)
This game should be another really good one and it's a shame one of these teams won't qualify for the playoffs as I enjoy watching both of them play basketball. The Clippers absolutely blew it on Tuesday night in their loss to the Timberwolves. They led by 10 points with nine minutes left to play and then went cold on offense and allowed the Wolves to come all the way back. I take nothing away from Minnesota, they played really well down the stretch in that game and their stars stepped up and made some huge shots in crunch time. But the Clippers were the better team for over three quarters and I'd take them again if we had to play that game again tonight.
But we have a different game tonight as the Pelicans come to L.A. trying to extend their season. Their big three of McCollum, Ingram, and Valanciunas carried New Orleans to a 10-point win over the Spurs and they have the benefit of having some momentum here. New Orleans won the season series 3-1, however, the Clippers won the most recent contest 119-110. Paul George did play in three of those meetings, but this version of the Clippers with George, Norman Powell, and Robert Covington has only been together for the last two weeks and that's the squad that handled New Orleans in the most recent meeting.
I think this game could go either way to be perfectly candid and Vegas has it handicapped just about right. If this were a full slate of games, I probably wouldn't even be making a pick here. But it's the playoffs and I'm going to make a pick on every game, damn it! I think L.A. finds a way to get it done tonight and they cover for us. The Clippers have more depth and have the best player on the floor (Paul George).
I do think this total is incredibly low and likely has been influenced by both teams playing in really low-scoring games earlier this week. If this were a regular-season game, my model has it nearly 10 points over the current total. These teams will tighten things up for sure, but I think there is enough offense on both sides to get us up over 216.
UPDATE: PAUL GEORGE HAS COVID AND HAS BEEN RULED OUT! This literally changes everything and changes my bet in a big way. The line has moved to where the Pelicans are now favored by a point. I'd much rather have New Orleans here at -110 than the Clippers, who simply aren't the same team without George. The total has dropped to 215.5, but I'm staying on the over there as the Clipper defense is significantly weaker without George, too.
The Picks: Pelicans ML (-110 DK), OVER 215.5 total points
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Trae Young over 29.5 points (-120 DK)
Trae's assist prop is up there at 11.5 and his PRA is also pretty bloated at 41.5, but I do like a straight points bet as you have to expect him to be firing up shots tonight in a must-win game. When I project him for closer to 37-38 minutes, his points projection jumps up to nearly 31 points and he's gone for 30+ in three of the four meetings with Cleveland this season including games with 41 and 35.
Paul George over 5.5 assists (-150 PointsBet)
SCRATCH THIS BET - PG13 HAS BEEN RULED OUT
This is one of the softest props out there and -150 is the best number I could find on any site at the moment. While PG13 only had five assists on Tuesday against Minnesota, he still has the best assist rate on the team and often acts as the main distributor on offense while Reggie Jackson plays off the ball as more of a shooting guard. If we get 40 minutes of PG13, I have him projected for nearly seven assists.
Norman Powell over 20.5 points (-120 DK): With PG13 out, Powell should start in his place or pick up an extra 4-5 minutes off the bench. Either way, I see him playing close to 30 minutes tonight and the Clippers will badly need his offense to help fill the void left behind with George out. Reggie Jackson is such a streaky shooter that I would much rather roll with Norman here. He's efficient from the field and the foul line, and has averaged 21 points per game as a Clipper in only 25 minutes.
C.J. McCollum over 25.5 Points (-105 DK)
If we think that Paul George spends most of his time defending Brandon Ingram, then give me the McCollum props tonight as Reggie Jackson is a pretty bad overall defender. CJ took 23 shots against the Spurs to Ingram's 19 and is the engine that drives this version of the Pelicans offense. If they are going to pull off the upset or even come close, they need CJ to get buckets all night long and I think he covers this number win or lose.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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