RADIO
I have officially rebuked the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic. My night was cruising right along with the Mavericks not only covering their spread but winning outright AND going over their team total. Jalen Brunson crushed his prop in the process, too.
Then the Sixers took care of business and wiped out the Raptors to cover with ease. OG Anunoby covers his prop in the loss, and the picks were 5-0 heading into the late game. Denver actually led for most of the first half before giving up a big run before halftime, but still only trailed by six points at the half. Then the Warriors went nuts, scoring 44 third-quarter points, Jokic gets ejected and the blowout is in full effect. Will Barton misses his PRA prop by two stats as he sits the fourth quarter out and even my teasers where I had moved Denver to +12 or +14 miss as they end up losing by 20. Steph Curry was tremendous yet again in his role off the bench scoring 34 in only 22 minutes and Denver might be cooked (pun intended...Chef Curry...cooked...you get it) in this series.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 19-21
- Against the Spread 6-9
- Over/Under 2-3
- Player Props 11-9
NBA Betting Picks for 4/19
Atlanta Hawks (-7.5) @ Miami Heat (219 total)
Yesterday I had my first round of game twos to pick and I had to decide where to double down on spots that I got wrong in game one and where to flop my picks. Doubling down on Dallas worked well while not so much for Denver. And the Raptors made it easy to flop my pick to Philly with Scottie Barnes getting hurt and then Gary Trent Jr. trying to play sick and they ended up being a big mess.
I think I will double-down on the Heat here, who covered with ease in game one as they handled the Hawks 115-91. They dominated every aspect of that game and showed why they are a superior team to Atlanta on both sides of the ball. Trae Young shot 1-12 from the field and had six turnovers to just four assists. He won't be that bad again, but Miami is going to continue to harass him and force other Hawks to beat them and I'm just not sure there is anyone else on Atlanta who is capable of doing that.
John Collins did return and play 21 minutes off the bench, but the Hawks' sixth man Bogdan Bogdanovic was horrible in game one shooting 0-8 from the floor for only six points. Okungwu was overmatched inside against Adebayo. Gallinari and Hunter were the leading scorers and that's never a good sign as Atlanta is at its best when those guys are spotting up for shots, not trying to get their own.
I think Atlanta will play better tonight, but the key here for me is that Miami is healthy and looked as cohesive and confident as I have seen them this year. Duncan Robinson came off the bench and hit 8-9 threes for 27 points to lead all scorers. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry were efficient. P.J. Tucker was 4-4 from deep and played solid defense. Bam and Tyler Herro didn't even play well and Miami still cruised. Victor Oladipo never even got off the bench! Give me the Heat to cover again at home and let's see how Atlanta responds to adversity before we decide if they can cover at home in games three or four.
The Picks: Heat -7.5 (-110 DK)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ Memphis Grizzlies (241 total)
Ok, now it's time to double down on the Grizzlies. I was blown away (and so were they apparently) with how well Minnesota played in game one. Instead of a play-in hangover, they came storming out in the first quarter and seized control of the game. They blew a few big leads, but still had enough shot-making left to pull away in the fourth quarter and secure a 130-117 win.
How will Memphis respond? I think they win tonight, but I wish we would have gotten the same type of overreaction on the spread (which didn't budge) that we did on the total (which is up four points from game one). I'm not going to take the Grizzlies and lay those points because Minnesota is good and they could easily keep this game close until the end. But I do think Memphis wins, and I will toss their money line in a parlay with the other favorites today. Memphis is too good to not respond and their young coach will make adjustments (especially on defense) for game two.
What I am willing to fade is Minnesota's 130 points from game one. They shot the ball at a 50% clip from the field (nearly 6% better than usual) and were 89% from the free-throw line (11% better than usual). The pace of this game should still be well above average, but in most of these playoff series, we are seeing games come in under their totals as the game slows down in the postseason. I think Memphis is likely going to slow this one down a bit and that decrease in pace paired with a better defensive effort from the Grizzlies will end up with a lower-scoring game. I'm on the under here, this total is way too jacked up in my opinion.
The Pick: UNDER 241 total points (-110 DK)
New Orleans Pelicans (+9.5) @ Phoenix Suns (221.5 total)
A pretty boring pick in this game, but this series is likely to be a boring one as I think Phoenix sweeps the Pelicans who are just happy to have made it through the play-in. Phoenix led throughout game one and despite only winning by 11 points (it's kind of weird to say ONLY 11 points, right), the game was really never all that close. The Pelicans scored fewer than 20 points in both the first and second quarters as Phoenix's defense shut down Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. Jonas Valanciunas (more on him in a minute) was a bright spot with 18 points and 25 boards, but we saw Phoenix dominate the Pelicans bench and demonstrate their depth and quality of talent across their roster is far superior to New Orleans.
I see no reason not to jump on the Suns to win handily again in game two. Chris Paul put on a clinic in game one, Deandre Ayton was efficient, and Devin Booker quietly scored 25 points. The Suns might be the most boring but dominant team at the same time. They should get it done again tonight and I was a little surprised to see this spread didn't jump over 10 points yet (grab it quick!)
We will definitely have some props from this game, too, but for now, I'm rolling with the Suns to cover and not messing with the total.
The Pick: Suns -9.5 (-110 DK)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Jonas Valanciunas over 12.5 rebounds (-135 DK), over 30.5 points/rebounds (-105 DK), over 32.5 PRA (-125 DK): This was a prop I didn't include on Sunday because I didn't run across Jo-Val's game log against Phoenix until after I had finished my article. You can see below (courtesy of StatMuse) that JV has smashed the Suns to the tune of 21-15 in four matchups in the regular season and he promptly went out and had 18 points and 25 boards in the opener. So his rebounding prop will be popular today and likely more juiced up as the day goes along. You can hit his points/rebounds or PRA for better odds and I am going to bet all three of them separately to layer my JV props a bit.
Chris Paul over 32.5 PRA (-120 DK): I'm not sure what needs to be said other than playoff mode Chris Paul is one of the best stat stuffers you'll see for DFS and betting. He went for 30 points, 7 boards, and 10 assists in 35 minutes without breaking a sweat. He usually only plays around 32 minutes in the regular season and defers to his teammates more, so take advantage of this easily attainable prop with his increased usage and minutes bump.
Jimmy Butler over 1.5 steals (-105 DK): Butler is a menace on defense and had three steals in the series opener. He averages 1.7 per game yet his prop is only 1.5. He now has two or more steals in three of the four games he's played against Atlanta this season. The Hawks turn the ball over way too much, and I look for Butler to continue to be aggressive on defense.
Jaren Jackson Jr. over 2.5 blocks (+100 DK): I was so mad that I didn't go with my gut and recommend this prop last Saturday. I recommended JJJ's points and boards instead and got burned as he battled foul trouble the entire game. But even in only 24 minutes on Saturday, JJJ posted 7 blocks! He averages 2.3 per game on the season and he was very active on defense (perhaps a bit too active with all the fouls) and all he needs is three tonight to hit this number.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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