RADIO
It's beginning to become a bit of a pattern here this postseason. I watch the first game of the night. Things go well. Hawks pull away late and cover. Jimmy Butler gets two steals (and scores a bazillion points in an epic performance). So far good.
Then the Grizzlies smack the T-Wolves in the second game. They cover with ease (though I didn't bet the spread) and we hit the under. JJJ fails to get three blocks, but hey, I'm still sitting at 3-1 on the night and the all-favorite money line parlay is fully intact so I can't complain. Then I go to bed with the Suns locked in a close game with the Pelicans, hoping to wake up to a good result. And then I wake up to see that Phoenix allowed 69 second-half points to the Pelicans and lost by 11! That was supposed to be the other way around! So I check the boxscore and surely Jonas Valanciunas had a huge night if they put up all those points, right? Nope, he finished with 10-13-2 and it was Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum who went off and the Pelicans played small with Larry Nance Jr. and Trey Murphy III getting a bunch of run. And to add the final insult to injury, Chris Paul ends with 32 PRA, just one stat shy of covering that prop. And that, my friends, is how quickly a slate can turn on you!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 22-25
- Against the Spread 7-10
- Over/Under 3-3
- Player Props 12-12
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/20
Brooklyn Nets (+3.5) @ Boston Celtics (226 total)
This is definitely going to be my favorite game of the night to watch tonight and if it's anything like Game One, we are in for a treat. To recap, the Celtics were able to save Game One with a last-second win as Jayson Tatum made a layup as time expired in a game that was back and forth all Sunday afternoon. The Celtics now have a chance to grab a 2-0 lead before the series heads to Brooklyn and if they don't do that tonight, they run the risk of letting the momentum in this series swing back to Brooklyn.
I'm ready to double down on my Celtics pick from Sunday, and I think they cover here and win this won a little more comfortably. There are a few different ways to look at Game One. You could say "Wow, the Celtics played so well all game long and still barely won, man the Nets are good - they're in trouble." Or you could say, "Wow, Kyrie Irving played another game at an otherwordly level and the Nets still came up short, Boston must be really good."
I suppose I agree with the second sentiment a bit more. Kyrie is amazing, but how many times can he do what he did Sunday? If you look at the rest of the Nets' roster, they got 23 points from Durant on 9-24 shooting and the other only other players in double figures were Goran Dragic and Nicolas Claxton off the bench. KD will likely play better, but he looked uncomfortable all game and the Celtics defense was physical with him and knocked him around a bit. They can put Tatum on him, Horford on him in the post, or even Marcus Smart on him on the perimeter.
Let's not forget that Boston entered the fourth quarter on Sunday up 11 points. Then Kyrie took over for Brooklyn and the Celtics choked a bit late and missed some easy buckets to keep the Nets at arm's length. I really do believe in the team is greater than the individual and the foursome of Smart, Tatum, Horford, and Brown (who all scored 20+ points, Tatum had 31) are too much for Brooklyn. I'm taking Boston to cover at home and go up 2-0 in the series.
The Picks: Celtics -3.5 (-110 DK)
Philadelphia 76ers (-2) @ Toronto Raptors (216 total)
I'm puzzled by this line. Like I am really stumped here. I looked through all the injury reports this morning and the Sixers are all healthy. They will be without Matisse Thybulle tonight as he can't play in Canada due to being unvaccinated, but I don't see that being as much of a factor as I had previously based on how little he even played in Games One and Two. Doc Rivers was wise to go with veteran Danny Green in the starting lineup so that there would be some continuity when the team heads to Toronto and Green has played as well as Thybulle if not better.
Meanwhile, for Toronto, we still have a doubtful tag on Scottie Barnes and a questionable tag on Gary Trent Jr. GTJ actually started Game Two but only played 10 minutes because he was so sick and he was not effective when he was out there. The Raptors lost game two by 15 points and were forced into playing their remaining big three of Anunoby, VanVleet, and Siakam for 38, 40, and 43 minutes, respectively. Chris Boucher had a nice game off the bench with 17 points and eight boards, but Toronto didn't get much of anything from anyone else.
I am going to say it right now - I underestimated the Sixers. They had looked somewhat mediocre and beatable down the stretch, but in the first two games of this series, they have played excellent defense and have been much more well-rounded as Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have been much more involved on offense and incredibly productive. Embiid bounced back in Game Two for 31 points and 11 boards and a shorthanded Raptors team just doesn't have any answers right now.
Could Toronto circle the wagons and pull out a win tonight? Sure, but it would also take the Sixers playing exceptionally poorly or not being focused for that to happen. We haven't even seen a big James Harden game yet, which is scary for Toronto. Give me the Sixers to cover this tiny spread and let others back the home team with narratives. The data from the first two games all support Philly continuing to roll.
The Pick: Sixers -2 (-110 DK)
Chicago Bulls (+10) @ Milwaukee Bucks (225 total)
The Bulls were able to cover in Game One and hung with the Bucks longer than I had expected. Milwaukee came out hot and went up big early. But Chicago fought back and if they have shot the ball better, they may have had a real chance to steal Game One. But alas, they did not, and the Bucks are not likely to let that happen again in Game Two.
I think the Bucks win here and go up 2-0 at home, but this is too wide of a spread for my liking. But I am going to double down on the total. Last time, I went with the Bucks to cover their team total. Today, I am just going to go over the team total of 225. That's likely going against the grain a bit considering the total only hit 179 points in Game One, but we've seen these teams get into some really high-scoring games during the regular season and I don't think either team shoots nearly as poorly as they did in Game One. The Bulls shot 32% from the field, while Milwaukee was 40.5% - that's simply unheard of from teams with really good offensive players. I think we see a correction tonight and Milwaukee wins a much higher-scoring game.
The Pick: OVER 225 total points (-110 DK)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Al Horford over 26.5 PRA (-120 DK) - If it ain't broke, then don't fix it, right? Big Al was awesome in Game One with 20 points, 15 boards, and two assists. The old guy played for 41 minutes! They moved his PRA number three points and it's still way too low. I will keep betting this prop all series until it hits 30 or so.
Marcus Smart over 25.5 PRA (-120 DK): The other unlikely hero for Boston was Smart, who played great on offense and defense. While Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum's props are pretty high, I'm on Smart to keep up his productivity and play big minutes. He had 33 PRA in Game One, easily clearing this number, and shot 4-9 from downtown (his 3PM prop is plus money at o/2.5).
Nikola Vucevic over 9.5 rebounds (-140 DK): Vooch pulled down 17 boards in Game One and is going to keep logging heavy minutes for Chicago as their lone big man who can score and board.
Danny Green over 1.5 3PM (-190 DK): You all know I hate betting juiced up props as straight bets, but use Green's 3-pointer prop to parlay with some others. He went 3-9 from deep in Game Two and played 37 minutes. I look for him to log big minutes again tonight with Matisse Thybulle ineligible to play.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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