RADIO
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! We had ourselves a decent day yesterday, again finishing 1-1. Due to it being quite annoying to continuously go 1-1, I will begin to add plays throughout the day if I find value in them. I hope to release 3-4 picks every day within the article and will be tweeting when I update it. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Friday, April 22, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 9-8-1, -1.61 units
- Sides: 7-4, +1.17 units
- Totals: 2-4-1, -2.78 units
- Notes: While the Athletics took care of business, we got unlucky in the Arizona/Washington matchup. Juan Soto came up with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth and popped out, costing Washington the chance to tie the game at eight and automatically sealing the over. Unfortunate things happen over the marathon that is the MLB season, nevertheless, we're back at it today.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN +108
STL: Steven Matz | CIN: Hunter Greene
I'll start today's slate off out in one of the early games, as the Cardinals head to Cincinnati and take on Hunter Greene and the Reds. Hunter Greene broke the MLB record for pitches over 100mph in an impressive start against the Dodgers, going 5.1 innings allowing two earned runs while striking out six. Greene is bringing in a solid 4.35 ERA and an even more impressive xFIP of 2.92 into this start, netting him a rating of 71.78 on my model.
On the other side of the matchup, we have Steven Matz, who had a nice bounce-back start in his second outing of the year against Milwaukee. Matz went 5.2 shutout innings while striking out six. Matz has been extremely unlucky this season thus far, as indicated by his xFIP sitting at 1.94 while his ERA is inflated at 7.27. He draws a solid matchup against the Reds today as well, who rank 24th in OPS against lefties at .544 and 25th in wRC+ at 56. This earns Steven Matz an 83.77 rating in my model.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals at -126 right now, giving us implied odds of 55.75%. My model gives the Cardinals a 60.79% chance to win the game, giving us some solid value here (+5.04%), winning by a final score of 5.32-4.17. Both teams are 1-1 behind today's starters, but this one is simple, I'll take the 7-4 Cardinals to stay hot against the 2-11 Reds at a fair price of -126.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line (-126) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -154
MIA: Trevor Rogers | ATL: Kyle Wright
I'll be looking at a "NRFI" in this one, as the Marlins and Braves open up their season series in Atlanta tonight. Some might call this a "risky" NRFI due to Trevor Rogers looking awful in his last start against Philadelphia, but I believe he's primed for a bounce-back spot. Rogers didn't allow a first-inning run in any of his three starts against Atlanta in 2021, a good indicator that he's able to navigate through the top of their lineup early with or without Ronald Acuna.
Kyle Wright takes the ball for Atlanta. Wright was stellar in each of his first two starts of the year, coming into this one with a 1.64 ERA with an xFIP of 2.09, while not allowing a first-inning run in either start. He hasn't started against Miami since 2020, where he made three starts against the Fish, not allowing a first-inning run in any of them either.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the NRFI at -110, proving solid value for us. I'm currently working on finishing an "NRFI" dashboard in my model, but don't have it finished yet. While I'm hoping to get it done over this weekend, I feel this play is too valuable to pass up. The Braves rank 23rd in the MLB for runs scored in the first at just 0.29/g, while the Marlins rank 26th at 0.17. At -110 this line is too cheap and I won't be surprised if I find it moves up between -125 and -130 throughout the day.
Pick: NRFI (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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