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Welcome back, RotoBallers! It is Monday and this article will focus on the nine-game slate that starts at 6:35 PM Eastern time so that everyone that sees this will have time to tail the plays if they wish!
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I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, May 9, 2022. This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 8-17-1 overall on the season, down 3.396 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black!
Oakland A's @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: DET -135
OAK: Paul Blackburn| DET: Michael Pineda
Paul Blackburn takes the mound for Oakland in this one. He is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 2.47 xFIP. He also has a career-best 25% strikeout rate and a 3.3% walk rate. His career strikeout rate is 14.4% and his career walk rate is 5.9%. He is pitching really well at the moment for Oakland.
Detroit has Michael Pineda going on the mound tonight. He is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA, and 4.12 xFIP. He is striking out a career-low 14% of batters and walking 3.5% of batters. His hard-hit rate is 51.1%. He is giving up more contact than he has in the past and giving up more hard contact than he has in the past.
Oakland has an edge with the starting pitching matchup here.
The bullpen matchup favors Detroit. The Tigers' bullpen ERA is No. 4 with a 2.67 ERA while Oakland's is No. 13 with a 3.33 ERA. Batting-wise, Oakland is No. 26 in runs scored (96) while Detroit is tied for last (78). Their team ISOs are 27th (Oakland) and last (Detroit), and Oakland's on-base percentage is last while Detroit's is No. 23.
This game is pretty evenly matched. The A's have an edge with their starting pitching but the Tigers have an edge with their bullpen. Both offenses are bad. In a coin-flip game like this, I am going to take Oakland.
Pick: Oakland Moneyline (+125), WynnBET Sportsbook, 0.5 units.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: CHW -169
CLE: Zach Plesac| CHW: Michael Kopech
We have Zach Plesac taking the mound against Michael Kopech in this divisional matchup in Chicago. Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA, and 4.57 xFIP. He has a career-low strikeout rate of just 13.9% and is walking 7% of batters. He is also allowing a career-high 47.3 hard-hit rate. The underlying metrics are in line with his surface stats in that he is not pitching well this year. He is likely to allow 2-3 runs in this game at least.
Michael Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA which is really impressive. His xFIP is 4.30 and he is walking a career-high 12.1% of batters. If his ERA starts regressing to his xFIP, he will allow 2-3 runs in this game as well.
Cleveland and Chicago have nearly identical bullpen ERAs: Cleveland's is 3.24 and Chicago's is 3.19. Each bullpen is likely to allow at least 1-2 runs in this one as well.
If Plesac allows three runs, Kopech allows three runs, and each bullpen allows one run, we are going over the 7.5 run total. If Plesac allows three runs, Kopech allows two runs, and each bullpen allows two runs, we are going over the 7.5 run total. You get the drift here.
The total is set as if Kopech is pitching with a 1.17 ERA (which he is), but that is likely to go up over time. I do not think betting on the over at plus odds is a bad shot to take.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (+100), DraftKings, 0.5 Units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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