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Now that we are two months into the season, we're starting to get a better idea of the MLB landscape. Not only are postseason races becoming more clear, but individual player struggles become more worrisome, while breakouts appear to be more legitimate. As the weather continues to warm up and the sun is shining, it truly is the best time of the year.
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow accumulating as many statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters are the most valuable streaming assets off of the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers? Let us dive right into it!
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to pay attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games are the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of the opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on the game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
It's nice to see the return of the eight-game week! That being said, less than half of the teams in the league play over six games next week, while the teams with the favorable matchups aren't the ones with the most games played. That makes it a semi-difficult week to find top hitter steamers.
Hey, isn't that the fun of this? In a week where you have to squint harder for the optimal streamers, perhaps this is the time where you can gain an edge in your fantasy league. So, who is in position to thrive this week? Let's take a closer look!
Stats via Baseball Savant and Fangraphs
Santiago Espinal, Toronto Blue Jays
42% rostered
In case you haven't heard, the Blue Jays have an incredibly talented lineup. Now, it hasn't been as smooth sailing as it was in 2021 when they ranked third in runs scored, but over the past 30 days, they rank 2nd in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and are in position to continue to make noise during the stretch run of the season.
Entering the season, in spite of their elite overall lineup talent, perhaps the largest question mark associated with Toronto was how they'd replace Marcus Semien, who finished third in AL MVP voting last season. The thought was that an improved season from Cavan Biggio would soften the blow, but instead, it's been a different player who has stepped up in Semien's place.
In fact, through two months, Santiago Espinal has simply outplayed Semien thus far. In 214 plate appearances, the 27-year-old boasts a 126 weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) and .290/.346/.451 slash line, which certainly a surprise for a player who wasn't even in the opening day lineup. With the ability to make a lot of contact (7.2% swinging-strike rate), he is in a position to hit for a high average and get on base, particularly since he has consistently run high batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) going back to his time in the minors. Add in stolen base upside (12 attempts in 460 plate appearances since 2020) and he's going to be a steady all-around contributor for you.
Remember, the league-wide batting average is still just .240. Thus, a player like Espinal holds extra value since he isn't a net-zero in terms of power (5.6% barrel, .161 isolated power/ISO) and hits in a very productive lineup. With the Blue Jays having seven games this week, including four against the Orioles, this is your chance to pick up Espinal before it's too late! After all, who wouldn't what a member of the Blue Jays who has multi-position eligibility and can be a standout in batting average? It appears Toronto has found another piece to add to the a very exciting foundation that should help solidify them as World Series contenders for the foreseeable future.
Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers
Heim: 39% rostered
Lowe: 31% rostered
Don't look now, but here come the Rangers! For the season, Texas has a positive run differential (+5) and has a winning record (20-16) since the start of May. Slowly but surely, their major free-agent acquisitions (Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray) are performing better, but they're also getting notable contributions from returning players that can't go under the radar.
At the beginning of the season, Jonah Heim looked destined to be Texas' backup catcher this year. Now, he's potentially a top-five catcher in all of baseball. Some of that is buoyed by his elite defense, but he has also performed exceptionally on the offensive side of the ball, hitting for a 135 wRC+ and .262/.324/.485 slash line. As a hitter who swings often in the zone (76%), yet doesn't chase often (26.4%) while also making above-average contact in the zone (83.5%), the switch hitter is a rare breed offensively for a catcher, and has added onto that foundation with more power production (9.8%) this season. All of a sudden, we're talking about a catcher who can hit for average and power, while also usually hitting 5th for a productive offense. Yeah, that sounds intriguing.
Heim will likely go down as the Rangers' top trade acquisition from the 2020 offseason, but don't forget about Nathaniel Lowe, who is also coming into his own as of late:
A more aggressive approach from Lowe has led to just a 6.5% walk rate, which hurts his overall "real-life" value. From a fantasy perspective though, we're talking about a hitter projected to hit .266 by ZiPs projections who also has a 13.4% barrel rate over the past five weeks. Now that he's back to playing everyday, even against lefties, this is a talented hitter on the rise that you'll want to bet on.
Texas plays seven games this week, with four of them coming against the Tigers. Although the park factors (Texas and Detroit) aren't in their favor, they have the sixth-softest slate of opposing pitchers, which could allow for an overall friendly run environment. In a week where it's hard to find productive players with seven games and some sense of a favorable schedule, these two players need to be on your radar.
Brendan Donovan, St.Louis Cardinals
30% rostered
"Cardinals devil magic" knows no bounds. For years, St.Louis' front office, headlined by John Mozeliak, has been able to find gems in ways that few other organizations have, allowing them to build the depth needed to be a winning franchise.
Sure, you see Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, but don't forget about sixth-round pick Tommy Edman, small trade acquisitions Giovanny Gallegos and Juan Yepez. Then, of course, there is former seventh-round pick Brendan Donovan, who has certainly exceeded expectations so far this season.
As a 24-year-old in the minors, Donovan was able to vault from Single-A to Triple-A last year, posting a 134 wRC+, as well as a minuscule 7.5% swinging-strike rate. Since being called up to the MLB this season, it's been more of the same for the 25-year-old, who has a 145 wRC+ and .304/.416/.422 slash line in 122 plate appearances this season. Just as impressive, he's walked (14.8% BB) more than he has struck out (13.1%), and is now hitting fifth against righties in a well-performing offense.
He's not a flashy player, but Donovan is going to provide your fantasy team with a strong batting average with some stolen base ability, while perhaps most importantly, being able to fill in at second base, third base, shortstop, and outfield. Talk about positional flexibility! With a seven-game week that features four against the Pirates, three in Boston, and just one matchup against a lefty, Donovan is set up to continue his strong rookie year, before also playing seven games as well next week. His rookie season may not be getting the recognition it deserves, but it's time to change that.
Abraham Toro, Seattle Mariners
2% rostered
It's easy to forget now, but there was an extensive amount of pushback when the Mariners traded Kendall Graveman, their best reliever, to the division-rival Astros while in the midst of a postseason run. At the time, the trade reportedly caused some rift in the clubhouse, but it also demonstrated how confident general Manager Jerry Dipoto was in the return he got for Graveman.
Although Abraham Toro was only about a league-average hitter (99 wRC+) in his time with the Mariners last season, that also came with a 5.9% home run/fly ball rate that did not match his 8.2% barrel rate all all. As a minor-league producer with strong underlying numbers with Seattle, Toro looked poised to secure the starting third base job and be on the verge of a breakout, which has now come to a halt.
The Mariners trading for Eugenio Suárez and Adam Frazier did not help matters for Toro, who has seen erratic playing time and has just a 63 wRC+ this season. On the surface, all hope would appear to be lost, but not so fast! With an 8% swinging-strike rate and 12.7% strikeout rate, Toro has made an exceptional amount of contact this season and has also shown power with an 8.3% barrel rate. Remember, this is a pull-happy (43.6%) hitter who hits the ball in the air (career 31.9% fly ball) often, so he's always going to naturally manufacture as much power production as possible, beyond the barrel rate. That base of contact skills with enough power cannot be ignored.
As Seattle deals with some injuries, Toro finds himself in the designated hitter spot for a team who plays eight games this week against the ninth-easiest slate of opposing pitchers. At some point, the process statistics are going to lead to overall results, and when that happens, you'll want to be able to have it help your fantasy team in deeper leagues. As the Mariners look to get out of their recent funk, consider Toro the potential X-factor.
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