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In the last two seasons, DK Metcalf has finished as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver in Points Per Reception formats. He has caught 22 touchdown passes in the last two years. He was on an upward arc after his 2021 campaign when he caught 83 balls for 1,303 yards and 10 touchdowns. Metcalf was drafted as a No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in most leagues last year.
In 2021, though, Russell Wilson missed significant action for the first time in his career and played hurt upon his return. Wilson suffered a finger injury in Week 5 that landed him on injured reserve, and he did not return until Week 10. He did not look like his true self again until the final two games of the season. Metcalf dropped to 75 receptions and 967 yards overall.
Now, Wilson is gone for good and Metcalf has become the Seahawks’ most visible offensive player. But as he prepares to work without Wilson for the first time in his career, we have to consider how far down the draft board we will move Metcalf in 2022.
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Targeting DK Metcalf In Fantasy Football Drafts Without Russell Wilson
Of course, this outlook hinges on the assumption that the Seahawks and Metcalf will come to terms on a contract extension in the near future. It seems that the intent is there to get a deal done, so we won’t let that factor play into our forecast for him just yet.
On his own, Metcalf remains one of the most dangerous all-around wide receivers in the game. He possesses a unique blend of size and tremendous speed, and Metcalf has also improved as a route runner. He is the main defensive target of opposing game plans when they face Seattle, but opponents do also have to be concerned about Tyler Lockett, who does help take some pressure off Metcalf in the passing game.
Well it sounds like DK Metcalf is really ready for Drew Lock to be the Seahawks future QB ? pic.twitter.com/w65Bz9t46j
— Sports ON Tap Seattle ? (@SONTSeattle) March 25, 2022
But the Seahawks have moved on from one of the best quarterbacks in the league and now will see who wins out in a quarterback between Drew Lock and Geno Smith. The former has the better deep gun to take better advantage of Metcalf’s downfield gears, but Smith is more familiar with the Seattle offense. No matter who wins the job, fantasy players will now be very skeptical about Metcalf’s possible upside. The Seattle quarterback situation has gone from being one of the best in the league, to what most outside observers regard as the worst in the NFL heading into the 2022 season.
High-stakes fantasy players are already starting to set the new market value for Metcalf. In the FootballGuys Players Championship format in the Fantasy Football Players Championship, Metcalf is the 21st wide receiver off the board. That puts him just behind Marquise Brown and Brandin Cooks on FFPC draft boards, and right ahead of Allen Robinson and Gabriel Davis.
The low-end WR2 range does seem fair for Metcalf considering Seattle’s QB change. But Metcalf’s output won’t be fully dictated by the perceived lack of quality production from the quarterback position. We have seen outstanding wide receivers rise above shaky quarterback play before. Diontae Johnson finished as fantasy WR8 in PPR formats last season. Allen Robinson finished as a fantasy WR9 in 2020.
If Lock wins the job, the hope is that he will adequately do what Pete Carroll wants his post-Wilson quarterback to accomplish, which is manage the game, limit turnovers, and hit the timely deep ball. Carroll and John Schneider were reportedly fans of Lock when he first entered the pros, and published reports indicated they wanted him as part of the Wilson deal.
Many observers will chuckle at the suggestion that Lock can revive what seems to be a failed career in Seattle, but a change of scenery can possibly re-energize his outlook enough to the point where he can get the ball to Metcalf regularly enough to help him succeed often, especially on deeper throws. The Seahawks may not win a lot of games this season, but Lock effectively utilize his best wide receiver to have chances of keeping his team in games on a weekly basis.
Instead of relying on the quarterback to be the engine of the offense as Seattle did in the Wilson era, the Seahawks will now have to depend on their playmakers to ease pressure on the passer and make things happen more once they get the ball in their hands. No longer can we simply thrill to Metcalf catching “moon balls” from Wilson. He is going to have to become a bigger yardage after the catch threat, and will also have to use his size and strength to win more contested balls and position himself advantageously to make important catches on key passing downs.
DK METCALF. 84-YARD TOUCHDOWN! ?#Seahawks | #NFL | #NOvsSEA pic.twitter.com/i3QcgmG9Yp
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) October 26, 2021
Metcalf does have some experience working with Smith as starting quarterback. In the three games that Smith started in place of Wilson last season, he had 14 receptions for 197 yards. He scored on an 84-yard touchdown reception in which Metcalf did a heavy amount of the work. Those who draft Metcalf this season will be hoping for more instances in which he is largely responsible for generating big plays. Metcalf had two six-reception games playing with Smith last season, but he also failed to crack the 60-yard mark in two of them.
Smith has not started an extensive amount of games since his second pro season in 2014, and we cannot expect him to be more than an adequate game manager type in the best-case scenario. Lock has more promise as a downfield thrower and is more mobile than Smith, who truly appears ticketed to be an NFL backup for the rest of his career.
Metcalf Must Rise To the Occasion As An Offensive Leader
After Wilson was dealt, Metcalf indicated he was willing to take on more of a role as a leader for the team as it embarks on a new era. According to playerprofiler.com, Metcalf ranked 27th in the NFL in yards after the catch last season, but he was just 55th in contested catch rate. He will have to improve in those areas to help out his new starting quarterback.
This season’s Seahawks may have a question mark at quarterback, but they have a potentially outstanding running game with Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker III, plus a receiving trio of Metcalf, Lockett, and Noah Fant that can help elevate the outlook of any quarterback. The Seattle offense is built well enough around the QB spot and it will be on the assembled playmakers to make the quarterback’s job easier.
The most pressure will be on Metcalf, as he will be the offensive face of the franchise and the player that opponents will look to shut down first and foremost. Due to him being in the defensive crosshairs regularly and adjusting to a new and much less decorated QB over a full season, it is totally understandable that Metcalf will no longer be drafted in the top-20 at wide receiver in 2022. But he does know that he must step forward and take on a much heavier offensive load this year and he still has superstar talents.
Inconsistency may be the biggest issue with Metcalf this season, but he will surely deliver some quality performances as well. We will have to watch and see how his role in the offense changes this year, as the Seahawks will have to attempt to get him the ball through some different methods than in the past. The upside remains for Metcalf, but we will see it less often this year. So he makes a lot of sense as a low-end WR2 type in drafts. But if Lock surprises all the naysayers, Metcalf could prove to be a value play at his current FFPC ADP.
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