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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are a very interesting case study in 2022. Last season, rookie quarterback Mac Jones beat out Cam Newton for the starting job. He led the Patriots to a 10-7 record after going just 7-9 the season prior with Newton under center. Jones was better than advertised as a rookie, completing 67.6% of his passes, while throwing 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. However, he only averaged 223.6 passing yards per game and the Patriots were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. They ran on 47.1% of their offensive plays. The question is, will that change in 2022, and will New England let Mac Jones cook?
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Patriots based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Rhamondre Stevenson
Early on as a rookie, it looked like Stevenson wouldn't get much of an opportunity. Then he started to get some more snaps in Week 5 and showed his ability in both the run game and the passing game. And then Damien Harris was forced to sit out in Week 10 against the Browns, and Stevenson was handed the feature role, totaling 114 yards and two touchdowns on 24 total touches (including four receptions).
From Week 10 on, Stevenson and Harris played five games together. In those five games, Stevenson got 14.4 opportunities per game while Harris got 15.2 opportunities per game. It was Harris though that had the edge in touchdowns, scoring five to Stevenson's two during that stretch. But it was actually Stevenson that played on a higher percentage of the snaps in those five games (40% vs. 34.2% for Harris).
As a rookie, Stevenson had the fourth-highest juke rate (35.4%), was 19th in yards per touch (5.0), and 15th in yards created per touch (3.09) (per PlayerProfiler). In comparison, Harris had a juke rate of 27.7%, was 25th in yards per touch (4.8), and just 44th in yards created per touch (1.99). Not only was Stevenson the better back from an efficiency standpoint, but it sounds like he could be more of a 1B this season rather than a backup. Additionally, he's been focusing on his route-running, which would boost his fantasy value even more.
https://twitter.com/DougKyed/status/1534235243376435200?s=20&t=CYjt6GPx5yz_PuhKg5B-eg
Stevenson scored more than 15 PPR points in three games, and more than 22 PPR points in two games. Not bad for a rookie runner in New England that only saw meaningful snaps in 10 of 17 total games. There's a lot to like about Stevenson in his second year in what should be a more potent offense. There's even a chance he just supplants Harris as the 1A this season as a result of his more diverse skill set.
Fantasy Football Bust: Damien Harris
If Rhamondre Stevenson is going to break out with an ADP of RB40, we can't possibly project Damien Harris to produce admirably against a current ADP of RB25. That's why he's considered our fantasy football bust in the Patriots offense this season. Bottom line - there's a real chance Stevenson ends up being the more valuable fantasy asset, regardless of acquisition cost. But let's talk about all the reasons Harris might not succeed in 2022.
He played on over 53% of the snaps in just one of 15 games a season ago. Seriously, Harris played 61% of the snaps in Week 4 against the Buccaneers in a game both Stevenson and James White were unavailable, and never touched that snap share again the rest of the season. He overcame the lack of opportunities on a weekly basis by finding the end zone a whopping 15 times last season. In fact, Harris scored a touchdown every 13.5 rush attempts. In 2020, he scored a touchdown just every 68.5 rush attempts. Even the very best running backs don't score as often as Damien Harris did in 2021.
One should reasonably expect some regression in touchdowns and also opportunities within the 10-yard line. Last season, Harris logged 30 carries within the 10, while Stevenson logged just 11 in that range. That's more likely to even out this season given how good the rookie was last season in limited opportunities.
Also, we generally want our running backs to run routes, see targets, and catch passes. Harris doesn't do much of that, which limits his overall ceiling in fantasy football. Just 7.4% of Harris' opportunities have come in the form of a target the last two seasons. For comparison, Stevenson was at 11.9% as a rookie. Because of that, we need Harris to score 15+ touchdowns a season to be even an RB2. If he doesn't, we're looking at more of an RB3 type of guy with limited upside because of his lack of targets.
Don't overspend for Harris, and instead roll with Stevenson a few rounds later.
Fantasy Football Lock: Jakobi Meyers
You might be wondering how and why Jakobi Meyers is the fantasy football "lock" on the Patriots' roster after finishing as just a low-end WR3 a season ago. Well, in its simplest form, he managed to average 11 PPR points on 7.9 targets per game all while scoring just two touchdowns. That's just one touchdown every 63 targets, an insanely low rate. You'll recall another wide receiver who popped last season had an insanely low touchdown rate the season before. Cooper Kupp caught a touchdown every 41.3 targets in 2020 before catching one every 11.9 targets in 2021. Maybe that doesn't happen with Meyers, but the point is touchdowns fluctuate year-over-year.
Now remember, Mac Jones is really good, and it's certainly possible he becomes even better in Year Two:
With Josh McDaniels now in Las Vegas, it's very possible Bill Belichick takes over play-calling duties and gives Jones more free reign over the offense. An uptick in pass attempts and a more up-tempo offense could be coming, which would be golden for a number of Patriots skill players.
Meyers' underlying opportunity from 2021 should give us a safe floor, with room for growth heading into his fourth season in New England. Per PlayerProfiler, he had a 24.4% target share, a 25.9% target rate, and a 91% route percentage. He also had a slot snap rate of 48.7%, the 11th-most in the league. That opportunity was very similar to another great receiver, who's been doing it for a long time. Last season, Keenan Allen had a 25.1% target share, a 26.7% target rate, and a 91.7% route percentage. He lined up in the slot 52.6% of the time. And just like the Kupp comparison, that's not to say Meyers is going to produce like Allen, but the opportunity should be there, especially if Mac Jones takes another step forward in 2022.
If Meyers can be a low-end WR3 with just two touchdowns, think about the opportunity in front of him should he find the end zone say 7-8 times in 2022. Jones threw just 22 touchdowns last season, of which nine (40.9%) went to Hunter Henry. The second-year quarterback should throw more than 22 touchdowns this season, while Henry isn't going to come remotely close to being the recipient of 40.9% of those touchdowns. We could easily have a WR2 on our hands if Meyers and Jones connect for a few more touchdowns this season. With a current ADP of WR53, there's nothing but upside in drafting the Patriots' top wide receiver this season.
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