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The Tyreek Hill to Miami trade was one of the top blockbuster moves during the 2022 NFL offseason, and it surely made the Dolphins’ offense better. The former Kansas City Chiefs wideout made six Pro-Bowls and four All-Pro teams in Andy Reid’s offense and is largely recognized as the fastest player in the NFL. Paired with Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, Hill should continue to have success with his new quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa.
Again, we all recognize the Dolphins got better with this trade (at least in the short-term), but how will the move affect Hill’s fantasy outlook?
Will Tyreek Hill fall in fantasy football with Tua Tagovailoa at QB? Will he continue producing the monster numbers we have become accustomed to? Let’s dive into it.
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Tyreek Hill’s Fantasy Football Value in Miami
We can expect Hill to step in as Miami’s No. 1 wide receiver, but will he dominate targets and get flurries of opportunities each week as he did in Kansas City? Well, that’s doubtful.
He leaves an offense that ranked second in team pass plays per game (39.5) and comes into a Mike McDaniel-led offense that will likely be a run-heavy attack, much like Kyle Shanahan’s.
He also leaves behind one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and trades in an unproven Tagovailoa, who has failed to show a ton of promise since entering the league in 2020. No matter how you feel about Tua, the likelihood of him raising his level of play to anywhere near Mahomes is almost zero.
While Hill’s aDOT has been outside the top-25 among WRs over the last three seasons, Mahomes’ backyard style of football has proven advantageous for Hill on extended and unscripted plays. Tagovailoa is more of a traditional pocket quarterback who makes quick, decisive reads. All in all, we can expect fewer chunk plays and less volume.
https://twitter.com/MathisReports/status/1540103780171382784
Believe it or not, Hill will have more competition for targets than ever before. Yes, he’s played alongside Travis Kelce for the last half-decade, but Kansas City never added a third target of consequence. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will still earn targets. After all, they already have chemistry with Tua.
Where Should I Draft Tyreek Hill?
Ultimately, it’s tough to think Hill won’t take a step back in fantasy football on his new team. The trade that sent Hill to Miami increased Tagovailoa's stock but decreased the stock of all of his pass-catchers.
When you put it all together, Hill will now be on a less pass-happy team with a lesser quarterback and more target competition. It’s a simple way of looking at it, but it’s easy to see – we shouldn't expect a top-eight fantasy season in 2022.
His ADP since the trade has slowly but surely fallen, and he currently sits at the WR9 spot. He’s still going to provide boom weeks, but don’t be surprised if he isn’t a consistent producer. If he falls closer to the WR11-12 spot in drafts, that’s probably a better spot to take a shot on him.
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