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Welcome back RotoBallers to a tradition like no other - the bold predictions column. Each year several of RotoBaller's fantasy football analysts give you their bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season.
I've previously laid out my Bold Predictions for Best Ball Drafts and I'm doubling down on one of them here.
Check out the rest of our bold predictions series, including fine work by Justin Carter and Rob Lorge.
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Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle Both Surpass 1,200 Yards
It's hard to believe this counts as bold based on each player's supreme talent level and the new offensive context they find themselves in, but here we are. Individually, it's easy to make a case for each player to reach 1,200 receiving yards in a season. Before the Hill trade to Miami, it might have shaken out that way with each serving as the WR1 in their respective offenses.
Hill surpassed the 1.2k mark three of the last four seasons but that's a bit misleading. He missed four and a half games in 2019 but was on pace for 1,227 yards if we prorate the 11 full games he played. He came up 17 yards shy in 2017 but was inactive for the final game of the season. In other words, 1,200 yards was practically a given in his Kansas City days.
Some analysts are making major slashes to his projections because Pat Mahomes isn't his quarterback anymore. As we saw toward the second half of last year, Hill doesn't rely on the deep ball alone to be productive. His 11.2 yards per reception last year was the lowest of his career since his rookie season yet he still managed to reach 1,239 yards.
In Miami's new offense under Mike McDaniel, he'll function similarly by catching a ton of targets in space closer to the line of scrimmage and generating yards after the catch. PFF tends to be fairly objective and they are giving him 1,196.2 receiving yards on 91.8 receptions in 2022. To be honest, 1,200 yards might be his floor this year.
But now we hear the narrative that they will eat into each other's target share with Waddle taking the biggest hit. This argument seems to be selective in nature. We aren't fading Tee Higgins now because of Ja'Marr Chase, are we?
As a rookie, Jaylen Waddle set an NFL record with 104 receptions in his first pro season. That led to 1,015 yards through the air and that came with Tua Tagovailoa missing essentially five whole games. If anything, Waddle should be taking a step forward in his second year, especially with a new offensive-minded head coach and improved O-line. People point to his low 7.8 aDOT and 9.8 YPR as concerns yet those aren't held against trendy sleepers with a lower aDOT like Kadarius Toney or JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Both Hill and Waddle can thrive in the Miami offense. Each should reach the century mark in yardage easily and with Mike Gesicki set to have fewer targets and more blocking duties, I'm taking the over on 1,200 yards for each wideout.
No Rookie Wide Receiver Reaches 1,000 Yards
We've just gotten used to record-breaking seasons from rookie receivers because a pair of LSU prospects broke the league. That didn't use to be the norm, though. There used to be something called the third-year WR breakout and fantasy magazines/websites devoted entire sections to identifying third-year pass-catchers who could break out for that sole reason. Then it became second-year breakouts and now, guys are being projected to breakout in the middle of their first NFL training camps.
I have issues with the 2022 rookie class, as do most analysts. It's obvious there is no Ja'Marr Chase in this group, seeing as how he was hailed as a generational talent (and has played like one). Nobody was completely sure who would be the first receiver drafted either.
It was Drake London, who has the misfortune of playing for the Falcons with some combo of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder at QB this year. London just turned 21 so it's fair to think he might take a little time to develop. He's got the talent to be a stud in the pros but he doesn't have 4.3 speed to burn by defenders like Chase, nor does he have Joe Burrow targeting him.
Garrett Wilson could be the next great Buckeye receiver but I still don't think he's as good as Elijah Moore. Plus, is he catching passes from Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco? Elite receivers thrive regardless of their QB but in this case, it might be a stretch to see a first-year breakout from Wilson.
Chris Olave was a strong bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year upon being drafted to the Saints. It was a great situation for a team in need of playmakers. Now, it looks like Michael Thomas might actually see the field and Alvin Kamara might not get suspended. Great news for New Orleans but not so much for Olave's target share.
Treylon Burks is my favorite receiver in this class but we have to acknowledge his preseason struggles, placement on a run-heavy team, and questions about his ability to beat press coverage. At this point, projecting 1k yards for him seems very optimistic, especially as he continues to battle injuries.
Jameson Williams is recovering from ACL surgery and may not even play until November. John Metchie will miss the year with his recent leukemia diagnosis.
Jahan Dotson has looked great in camp but how good do we feel about a secondary receiver on a team that was 21st in pass attempts last year who will be catching passes from Carson Wentz?
George Pickens is getting all the helium lately because he is bullying DBs in practice and made a beautiful end zone catch in an exhibition game. He could be a stud eventually but I have a hard time seeing him truly break out with the combo of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett at quarterback. This offense will run through Najee Harris first and Diontae Johnson next.
For my thoughts on Skyy Moore, read below.
You could argue that there's a path for several of these guys to get there but none I feel very confident about. This might be the year we realize that rookie receives don't always break out right away.
Pat Mahomes Finishes as the QB1 but No Chiefs WR Reaches 800 Yards
Is it possible that Mahomes has his finest season without star wideout Tyreek Hill? At the same time, can he accomplish this without any single receiver ascending to the WR1 role? I believe so.
First, the caveat is that I'm discussing wide receivers only. Travis Kelce might wind up with the biggest target share of his career. The rest of the receivers will have to share targets equally with none truly standing out.
Hill leaves 1,237 yards on the table from last year. He was Mahomes' favorite target, receiving a 26.2% TGT%. That was in great part due to their chemistry but also the fact that the secondary receivers were Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, and Demarcus Robinson. Beyond Hill and Kelce, no other Chief even reached 600 yards receiving last season.
It's fair to say that corps has been upgraded with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore. Justin Watson has generated camp buzz too. More quality options mean that defenses can't simply play two deep to eliminate the lob to Hill. He can just pick them apart underneath. Mahomes has been the QB1 before and he can do it again.
It's hard to fathom MVS, he of a career catch rate under 50%, suddenly having a huge season. Skyy Moore is a talented player but coming out of the MAC and having to learn Andy Reid's playbook, it might take him a while to catch on. JuJu is the best candidate to break 800 yards but he's going to have to prove he can thrive outside of Pittsburgh.
Dak Prescott Falls Outside the Top-12 QBs
Prescott's appearance here should be no surprise to anyone who saw my Dynasty Players to Sell column. To sum up, he is coming off a career-best 6.2% TD% and that was with Amari Cooper as his top target. I imagine that he'll have a harder time finding the end zone. Unlike division rival Jalen Hurts, he doesn't have the rushing floor to buoy his fantasy value.
Since his season-ending injury in 2020, Prescott wisely scaled down the number of times he takes off with the ball and amassed only 146 rushing yards last season. After scoring six times on the ground his first three NFL seasons, he did so just once last season. I don't mind Prescott as a fallback option if you're going to play the late-round QB game, but at his current ADP, he can only disappoint.
UPDATE: LT Tyron Smith tore his hamstring and will miss several months if not the entire season. My prediction for Prescott came before this news and only reinforces the fact that he is a risky pick this year.
Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker Are Both Top-24 RBs in non-PPR
Any prediction that hinges on Penny staying healthy for most of the season is a spicy take. But it might not even be necessary. On a point-per-game basis, Penny averaged 12.2 fantasy points in 2021, finishing as the RB24. But it didn't really take him 10 games to produce those points, it was the final six when he suddenly looked every bit the part of a first-round pick by rushing for over 130 yards four times. If Penny has a few boom games, he doesn't need to suit up for all 17 to pay off.
That leads us to Ken Walker, who is the younger version of Penny. If you've watched him play, you know that Walker isn't going to be a volume-dependent runner to generate yardage. He is a home run waiting to happen.
13 days.
A truly unforgettable run on the very first play of the season. The legend of Kenneth Walker III is born. #GoGreen pic.twitter.com/2QRXxMRxZ4
— dunc ? (@SpartyWRLD) August 20, 2022
Walker will start the season slowly, both because of deference to the veteran back in Penny but also a supposed hernia requiring surgery that might keep him out in Week 1. Once Walker returns to action, he will complement Penny and possibly supplant him by year's end.
I don't expect either runner to get to 200 carries or catch more than a handful of passes. In full PPR leagues, that makes for a low floor. In standard leagues, it matters far less. This Seattle offense is going to be in the hands of Geno Smith or Drew Lock so we can expect them to hand the ball off at an extremely high rate. If each RB can produce a few long touchdown runs (they certainly can), then they will each carry tremendous upside.
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