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It's officially draft season and at this point, it's time to take some stances on players since you can't (and shouldn't) draft everyone. I'll be honest, the number of leagues I participate in has gone down considerably over the years as I am laser-focused on DFS, sports betting, and trying to cover three major sports at the same time for a stretch during the fall. So, if anything, I'm trying to differentiate from the pack with the few teams that I have and win my leagues by being bold in my drafts when it calls for it.
That leads us to this article, one of a series here at RotoBaller about "bold predictions." A few of those are bolder than others, but I am not the type of guy to throw out some hot takes that have a low likelihood of happening. Instead, I have five somewhat bold predictions that I hope have some actionable info that maybe, just maybe influence you into making some league-winning picks in your upcoming drafts.
So without any further ado, here are my five bold predictions for the NFL fantasy football season.
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The Minnesota Vikings Win the NFC North, Fantasy Goodness Abounds
I have been driving the Vikings hype train now for nearly a month. I have some futures bets already placed on them to exceed their win total (9), win the division, and even win the NFC. The last of those might be a tall task, but I think a 10-11 win season and division championship is well within the range of outcomes.
I know there are going to be plenty of skeptics out there, but this team underperformed last year compared to their talent, as they finished 8-9 but with five losses by four points or fewer. They bring back all of their skill players on offense and a perennially underrated Kirk Cousins at the helm. Yes, I am a Cousins truther, and his stats while in Minnesota (103.5 passer rating, 124 TDs, 36 INT) show that he's more than just a capable game manager.
The fate of this team likely rests on the offensive line and the defense. Last year, the O-line struggled to protect Cousins but was an above-average run-blocking unit.
The defense was abused by good offenses, despite being an average unit overall. This year the O-line is healthier and hopefully improved and the defense gets a fresh look as they switch to a 3-4 under first-year coordinator Ed Donatell.
Even some modest improvements to the offensive line and defensive unit could turn this 8-win team into an 11-12 win team and the timing feels right for them to overtake the Packers, who simply can't be as good after losing a top-3 receiver in Davante Adams.
Let's be bold with our offensive projections here. Kirk Cousins throws for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns. Justin Jefferson finishes as the overall WR1, while Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn end up more valuable than their current ADP (78 and 182, respectively).
And Dalvin Cook manages to stay healthy and rack up 1800+ yards from scrimmage while scoring 10+ touchdowns. All aboard the Vikings hype train, I guess I am officially the conductor!
Dallas Goedert Finishes as a Top 3 TE
First of all, let me just toss a shoutout to Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon on Twitter) who just posted a video on TikTok laying out a strong case for Goedert as the best value at the TE position. Kev and I are in lockstep on this as I think the Philly pass-catcher is poised for a huge year in his first full season free of Zach Ertz.
Goedert is being drafted as the TE8 in drafts, but I think he has the potential to crack the top 3 and carries just as much upside as Kyle Pitts who is being taken around 50 picks earlier.
So how can Goedert join the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews in the top-tier of fantasy football production at the position?
Well in the ten games that Goedert played after Ertz was sent to Arizona, he averaged four catches on six targets for 60 yards per game. Those numbers aren't eye-popping, and he only managed four touchdown receptions total on the season, but the way in which he was used in this offense should excite fantasy managers.
He finished with an average of 14.8 yards per reception, which was second-best at the TE position just behind Kyle Pitts. And his average yards per target (10.9) was the best of any TE and fifth-best of any pass-catcher in the NFL.
His athleticism at the position, whether it's his ability to stretch the field down the seam or line up outside and win battles against undersized cornerbacks, is something Philadelphia has to take advantage of in this passing game.
I'm not worried about the arrival of A.J. Brown or the emergence of DeVonta Smith as far as competition for targets. If anything, I think the presence of an elite downfield threat like Brown is only going to open things up even more for Goedert and Smith.
If Goedert's red-zone target share grows (only 11% last season) and he catches 7-8 TDs this year instead of just four, we are talking about a huge year for him and fantasy managers who drafted him in the 7th-8th round.
Chris Olave Wins ROY
There are a lot of really talented rookies coming into the league this year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. And this is an ultra-talented group of rookie receivers, too, but one guy stands out from the group for me. And it's former OSU standout Chris Olave.
I watched a lot of Olave's games in college, and as a Penn State fan I watched him abuse some of even our better defensive backs. This kid is smooth and an excellent route-runner.
He's not the type of receiver who got by in college by being bigger, or faster or just having elite ball skills. He's not overly big (6-1, 185), but is adequately fast (4.4 40-yard dash), and has already shown that he's more polished than we are used to seeing from rookie wideouts.
First @NFL TD for @chrisolave_ ?
20-yd TD strike from @Ian_Book12 #Saints | @OhioStateFB
?: @FOX8NOLA
?: @WWLAMFM pic.twitter.com/dTGCaA1ray— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) August 20, 2022
I think Olave walks into a great spot here in New Orleans. Jameis Winston is more than a capable QB and is likely going to be allowed to air it out more this year than last. If Michael Thomas returns at his usual level of play and Jarvis Landry operates in the slot as the underneath receiver, then Olave should have a chance to make some plays opposite the veterans.
This offense is getting Alvin Kamara back for week 1, too, and I'm operating more on the principle that more offensive weapons is going to elevate everyone than these players will cannibalize each other's production. If Thomas, Landry, or Kamara do get hurt, then Olave's role in the offense will likely grow. But I think he's good enough to demand targets even while everyone is healthy.
Chase Edmonds Stays Healthy, Finishes as Top-20 RB
Miami's running back room might seem crowded with the signings of Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel, especially when you consider that last year's starter Myles Gaskin and their second leading rusher Salvon Ahmed are both still around, too. But I firmly believe that Edmonds is the head of the class here and that he will earn the majority of touches for the Dolphins this season.
Edmonds isn't going to be a "workhorse" back, but he doesn't need to be in order to be a productive player in both real life and fantasy football. Last year he had the sixth-best yards-per-touch average at 5.7 as averaged over seven yards per reception and over five yards per carry. His skill set is exactly what this Miami offense needs to complement their passing game that is going to be centered around Tua, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill.
Last year he played in only 12 games for the Cardinals due to injuries, and in his absence, it was James Connor who thrived as the Cardinals' lead back.
While Mostert and Michel have both had short runs as lead backs, they are both best deployed between the tackles, while Edmonds has the playmaking ability and pass-catching chops that are going to garner him the most meaningful touches and targets.
I've watched Chase play since high school (where I coached against him many years ago) and I've always been amazed at his versatility and his determination to get on the field. This is a guy who played his college ball at Fordham and has had to fight for every opportunity he's got in the NFL, he's not about to let this chance to be the lead back in Miami get away from him.
Tony Pollard Finishes with More Fantasy Points than Ezekiel Elliot
I think I may have saved the boldest prediction for last! I really wanted to do this for A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones, too, but that one might be even more of a stretch. Listen, here's the deal.
At this point I think that just about everyone (including Zeke) realizes that Pollard is the more talented back at the current stages of their careers. I've seen the debates on Twitter over Elliot's age (he just turned 27, he's still so young) vs. his insane workload (he's had more carries than Derrick Henry over the last five seasons, he's wearing down).
For me, it's not just about the carries adding up, it's really about the type of back that Zeke is compared to the type of back that Pollard is.
Elliot is one of the few old-school (think Earl Campbell, Jerome Bettis) battering ram running backs in the league. The strategy with Zeke and Derrick Henry has been to just bludgeon your opponent to death with them 25+ times until they break, and both backs have had success doing that in their careers.
But the league is changing and as the game evolves, teams are not only getting away from that type of offensive gameplan, they are going with running back committees to take advantage of multiple different skill sets from different types of runners.
If Tony Pollard wasn't on the team, could Zeke handle the pass-catching downs? Yeah, probably. Is he as dynamic in space as Pollard and is that the best way to deploy him? Of course not, which is why Pollard has eaten into Elliot's touches so much the last two years.
Pollard averaged 6.2 yards per touch last season and finished right ahead of the aforementioned Chase Edmonds. He averaged over eight yards per reception and finished with 5.5 yards per carry. Compare that to Elliot's average of only 4.5 yards per touch.
Pollard missed two games in 2022, yet finished with 1056 yards from scrimmage. His efficiency as a change-of-pace and third-down back was incredible and he broke off a lot of big plays that Zeke simply never could. He brings another element to this offense that I think is going to want to play faster this season.
The biggest thing working against Pollard is the goal-line carries, but I really think we see him push closer to a 50-50 share in touches and that his receiving upside in PPR leagues could push him past Zeke if he scores more often this year (only two TDs in 2022) and Zeke scores a few less (12 last year).
Dallas would be wise to get their best back more touches and in doing so, they're going to also keep Elliot healthier for the entire season and perhaps extend his career a bit longer, too. I love targeting Pollard in the 6th-7th rounds of drafts and I'm taking him ahead of guys like Devin Singletary and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
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