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Is there anything more fun than a bold prediction? You get a chance to say the things that you really want to say, but then if it's completely wrong, you can say "oh, that was just a bold prediction, of course it was wrong."
I've had a lot of fun doing bold predictions pieces for RotoBaller over the years. Back in 2018, I boldly picked Patrick Mahomes to finish as a top five fantasy quarterback in his first season as a starter. (I also thought Ricky Seals-Jones would be a top 10 tight end that year. Oops.)
Below, you'll find my bold predictions for the 2022 season.
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Trey Lance Finishes As QB1
The 49ers will be moving on from Jimmy G this season, with second-year QB Trey Lance taking over under center. Here's my hot take on that: Lance will finish as the overall QB1.
In the passing game, Lance has a huge arm and two really good receivers who can take advantage of that arm in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. He also has George Kittle to make plays over the middle and a reliable fullback in Kyle Juszczyk for check downs. Lance should be able to keep the ball moving in the air.
Then there's his rushing ability. Having a QB who can run is a cheat code and Lance...well, he can run. In Lance's one full season as the starting QB at North Dakota State — which, by the way, was a season when he threw 28 touchdowns and zero picks — he ran the ball 169 times, finishing with 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Last year, Lance saw action in some packages, running 38 times for 168 yards and a score. His arm strength, accuracy, and legs are going to make him such a dangerous player in this league. Draft him.
Ameer Abdullah Is Fantasy Relevant
I still remember the first time Ameer Abdullah was getting hyped up. I was at a bar in Denton, Texas, watching a Lions preseason game.
Since that time, that bar was shut down for a year for a remodel, then reopened, which all happened before the COVID-19 pandemic was even a thought. I don't even have the phone numbers anymore of the people I watched that game with. I wasn't even married yet. Barack Obama was the president. It was 2015.
The point is, Ameer Abdullah has been around a surprisingly long time. And now, I think he's about to have a fantasy-relevant season for the first since 2017 when he had 714 scrimmage yards in his third NFL campaign.
But I'm a sucker for the words "James White," so:
If he really has that kind of a role in this Raiders offense, then Abdullah will see a lot of targets, making him a really intriguing flex option in full PPR leagues. White had six seasons in a row with 50 or more targets, averaging 70 catches per 17 games over that span.
Draft Abdullah as a last-round flyer.
Michael Thomas Is A Top Five Wide Receiver (In PPG, At Least)
We haven't seen much of Michael Thomas over the past couple of seasons and that might have made a lot of you forget how good he can be when he's healthy. Now, I'm not going to guarantee health for Thomas, but what I do believe is that for the games where he's out there on the field, he's going to be a top-five wide receiver.
Why? Because this is Michael Thomas we're talking about. He's led the NFL in receptions twice and had 1,725 yards the last time he played a full season. Even in his injury-shortened 2020 season when he was pretty clearly not at 100%, he averaged 62.6 yards per game.
With Jameis Winston and his big arm throwing the ball, Thomas is going to be back to his 2018/2019 ways.
Pat Freiermuth Is Unplayable In Fantasy
It's a tale as old as time: the tight end position being relatively weak. That's part of why Pat Freiermuth is being drafted where he is: once you get past that top wave of tight ends, a second-year player like Freiermuth is appealing because he theoretically could make a jump. But I'm here to tell you that you should not draft Freiermuth.
Last season, Freiermuth caught 60 passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. He was targeted 79 times, which ranked fourth on the team.
But the Steelers have never really been a team that heavily uses its tight end, and with the addition of George Pickens, there are now three wide receivers and a running back who are theoretically ahead of Freiermuth in the pecking order on a team that has an uncertain situation under center.
I don't care how shallow tight end is. I'm not drafting the fifth option on Mitch Trubisky's team.
Sam Howell Is The Highest-Scoring Rookie QB
Heading into this season, there are no rookie quarterbacks who are expected to be Week 1 starters. There's not even really a rookie QB who is expected to play this year for non-injury reasons. Kenny Pickett could unseat Mitch Trubisky if Trubisky struggles in Pittsburgh, but I think Trubisky is actually a good bit better than Pickett. Desmond Ridder could play over Marcus Mariota at some point late in the season.
But there's one rookie that I'm keeping a close eye on: Sam Howell. Howell isn't the best rookie quarterback. That's Malik Willis, who won't see the field much since Ryan Tannehill is penciled in as the clear starter.
Howell, who many thought could be the No. 1 overall pick before the 2021 college season, isn't a bad QB. His numbers regressed in his last season at UNC, but he's still a fairly accurate QB, and he added a rushing element last season, with 828 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
You'd think Howell adding that to his game would have been good for his draft stock, but everyone just looked at the drop from a 68.1% completion rate to a 62.5% completion rate, I guess. Anyway, Howell is in Washington. The oft-injured Carson Wentz is the starter. Taylor Heinicke, who already showed last season that he couldn't really do a ton as a starting NFL quarterback, is the No. 2 quarterback.
There's a good chance for Howell to get on the field this year.
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