RADIO
The Ravens' first-round draft pick, safety Kyle Hamilton, enters the 2022 NFL season with massive hype in real life and in the IDP fantasy football community. He’s being drafted as the 32nd defensive player taken in Sleeper drafts. Will a rookie safety really finish as the 32nd-highest scoring IDP? In 2021, only seven safeties finished in the top 30 in the NFL in combined tackles. The leading rookie safety in 2021, Brandon Stephens, had 78 tackles. Hamilton isn’t even assured of a starting job. Chuck Clark is still on the team, and he said, "I’m not going to give away my spot; if I’m going to not be a starter, it’s going to have to be taken from me.”
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Defensive players tend to take a longer time to blossom than offensive players. It would be a shock for Hamilton to finish at No. 32 IDP, ahead of proven stars like Giants LB Blake Martinez, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson, and Colts LB Bobby Okereke. He’s not even worthy of being taken as the No. 6 DB. The Bengals’ Jessie Bates is a sure bet to make significantly more tackles than Hamilton.
Following are five other over-hyped IDP who will not be able to live up to their inflated draft positions. For this list, I used my own projections and Rotoballer’s Standard IDP scoring. I cite players whose projected ranking is far lower than their current ADP in Sleeper as of August 24. With IDP, the scoring systems and number of starters at each position varies wildly by league, so someone who might be a bad value in one league might be a good value in another format.
DE Brian Burns
For the past two seasons, Burns had 9.0 sacks and solo tackle numbers in the 30’s, while playing about 75 percent of the snaps. Even after adding ten pounds this offseason, he is undersized at 258 pounds. He grades worse at run defense and overall defense than he does at pass rushing. In short, Burns is not an every-down edge rusher.
Last season, he tied for 20th in sacks. This season, I project him to finish between 25th and 30th, with 6.0 sacks, and 140th in solo tackles, with 28. Burns was well outside the top 20 IDP in 2021, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll finish close to the top 20 this season either. However, he’s being drafted as the No. 21 IDP and No. 3 DE. Take Raiders DE Maxx Crosby or Vikings DE Danielle Hunter instead.
DE Nick Bosa
Consider it a case of big names being over-drafted. His brother is also going well ahead of where I am projecting him.
The Niners’ Bosa set his career high with combined tackles last season with 52 and sacks with 15.5. He missed all but two games of 2020, so there are only two seasons to go on. Was 15.5 his ceiling, or is he going to outdo himself? I’m betting under. If he doesn’t make the sacks, his tackle base isn’t enough to rely on.
Aaron Donald is going one round after Bosa, and Donald’s status as a double-digit sack-maker has been proven five years straight. His floor for tackles before 2021 was slightly lower than Bosa’s, then he doubled that. Take Donald as a safer bet if you are drafting a defensive lineman in that range, and don’t, in any scenario, take Bosa as a linebacker.
S Budda Baker
For the past two seasons, Baker has had more than one interception. This year, however, the Cardinals will be facing a less-favorable slate for DBs. Week 5 and Week 7 opponents the Saints and Eagles both ranked in the bottom five in pass attempts in 2021, while the Patriots and Broncos ranked in the bottom ten too. The Broncos got an elite QB upgrade, but their coach, Nathaniel Hackett did not run an up-tempo offense in Green Bay. Baker did pick off Trey Lance once last season—and he has Geno Smith coming twice—but the second Cardinals-Niners matchup comes Week 18, so that doesn’t help fantasy managers.
Budda Baker is the No. 2 DB going in Sleeper drafts, but I’m projecting 19 DBs to make more tackles than him and 25 to make more interceptions. Take Giants S Xavier McKinney instead of both Baker and Derwin James for a No. 1 DB contender at a better value.
CB Jaire Alexander
Talk about an IDP who is hurt by his own success. Jaire Alexander is a shutdown corner who shuts down his own opportunities for production. Opposing QBs just don’t target him, because when they do, they complete less than 55% of their passes. In 2020, the last season he was healthy, Alexander was only targeted 69 times, the second least targets of any CB with 900 or snaps. Of those, only 50.7% were completed, according to PFF, the third-lowest completion percentage allowed by a CB. He made one interception and 43 tackles. (Malcolm Butler, who allowed twice as many completions as Alexander, made twice as many tackles.) It’s hard for a CB to put up numbers on a stat line when the offense is keeping the ball away from him.
LB Bobby Wagner
Seattle’s defense faced the fifth most rushing attempts in 2021. The Rams faced the 16th most. Now with the AFC West, Green Bay, Dallas, and Tampa Bay on the schedule, I am expecting LA to face even fewer rushing attempts in 2022. Bobby Wagner thrives on tackle volume, and he makes most of his tackles on rushing plays. He is not going to match the 170 combined tackles he made last year.
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