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The Chicago Bears are projected to conduct one of the worst offenses in the league this year, at least according to fantasy football managers.
With only two players being selected inside the first 100 picks, it’s clear that Chicago is not loaded with enticing fantasy options. The first off the board is running back David Montgomery, who is currently being drafted as the RB17 at the tail end of the third round.
Montgomery was a top-five fantasy back just two seasons ago and finished as the RB19 last year in half-PPR scoring despite missing four games. On a team with limited weapons, he surely will be a focal point yet again. Does this make him a good value near the three-four turn?
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2022 Outlook For David Montgomery
Montgomery suffered a knee injury in Week 4 of the 2021 season. While he spent four games on injured reserve, rookie Khalil Herbert saw the bulk of the carries and filled in admirably. When Montgomery returned in Week 9, however, Herbert was instantly relegated to backup duties. Montgomery went on to average over 21 total touches per game for the rest of the season, seeing 40 targets during that span as well. He was a three-down workhorse and excelled for fantasy as the RB11 over the last 10 weeks.
We could forecast the same production for Montgomery this season, but the situation around him has changed. Matt Nagy was the Bears’ head coach for the entire 2021 season and Andy Dalton was the starting quarterback for six games. The team (finally) moved on from Nagy in favor of Matt Eberflus and will deploy Justin Fields as the undisputed QB1 in 2022.
With a new coach in town, it’s no surprise that Khalil Herbert has seen some reps with the first-team offense given how impressive he looked in his time as the starter last year. Both running backs played in the Bears' 2022 preseason finale, though, and the pecking order was clear.
David Montgomery in preseason finale:
* In for 20 of first 22 snaps, then rested rest of game
* Khalil Herbert just 2 " breather back" snaps
* Montgomery handled 3-of-3 third-down snaps
* Got 9 carries plus 1 target— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 29, 2022
Herbert is still expected to be more involved this year, which should not be ignored when analyzing Montgomery's outlook. Additionally, Fields struggled at times as a rookie, so the overall effectiveness of the Bears’ offense is certainly in question as he enters his second season.
Where Should I Pick David Montgomery In Fantasy Football Drafts?
It's hard to imagine the Bears' offense declining this season considering they finished bottom-10 in total yards and points scored in both 2020 and 2021. Even if this remains stagnant, Montgomery has proven he can still be valuable. The question will be whether or not he can maintain the volume he has been given for the past two seasons.
These RBs had the highest Snap Percentage this year:
Najee Harris 83.5
David Montgomery 74.6
Derrick Henry 71.1
Jonathan Taylor 68.9
Ezekiel Elliott 66
Joe Mixon 63.5
Leonard Fournette 63.4
Austin Ekeler 61.1
Devin Singletary 59.9
Alvin Kamara 57.5#FantasyFootball #NFL pic.twitter.com/cnf6Y8480T— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) February 4, 2022
The absolute worst-case scenario is that he concedes a significant portion of his opportunities to Khalil Herbert in a timeshare on an unimproved offense. This is not the expected outcome, but it does present a potentially scary floor for Montgomery as an early-round investment. His ceiling is also likely capped unless Herbert is shockingly underutilized or Chicago takes a massive leap forward.
His RB17 price feels about right as he slots in at 18 in RotoBaller's consensus half-PPR RB rankings. He should be viewed as a solid RB2 that would be a much more exciting selection in the mid-to-late fourth round.
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