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It's officially Week 1, RotoBallers! I can't believe football is back and I'm extremely excited for this upcoming season. Not only does my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles, looking primed to make a serious run to the playoffs, but I'm also super excited for the weekly betting and DFS on the greatest sport in the world to be back. We'll start things off with the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams hosting this year's Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills to open up the season.
We were pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys NFL DFS showdown slate on September 11th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tom Brady - QB, $15,000 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 5,916 passing yards, 46 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
- 2021 Offensive Pass DVOA: 43.9% (1st), per Football Outsiders
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -20.5% (2nd), per Football Outsiders
We'll start off tonight's showdown slate with the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady. It's been quite the offseason for Tom, including a six-week retirement and a leave of absence just recently. The Bucs' offensive line has unfortunately deteriorated since the beginning of camp. However, if there's one guy who can manage through all of the adversity, there is no better than Brady. According to my model, he's the highest projected player on the slate, as well as coming in as the best value on DraftKings. I'm backing Brady as my primary captain/MVP on the slate.
Dalton Schultz - TE, $10,200 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 112 targets, 85 receptions, 897 receiving yards, eight touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 16.61% target rate, 13.48% red zone target rate, four end zone targets
- Individual Matchup (vs Devin White): 15% targets per route, 81% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered
Speaking of value, let's take a look at Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys lost Amari Cooper in the offseason, which opens up the door for Schultz to see an increase in targets, receptions, and all the like. Pair that with a relatively strong matchup against Tampa Bay linebacker Devin White, and Schultz is a great option at the captain spot on DraftKings, and a great overall play on both sites.
Other Captains/MVPs: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Leonard Fournette
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DFS Flex Plays
Dak Prescott - QB, $10,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 4,703 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 31.7% (6th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 0.7% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
Pairing up with Schultz is Dak Prescott. Although I'm an Eagles fan, objectively speaking, the Cowboys might as well replace the star on their helmets with a question mark. Are they good enough to make the playoffs? Absolutely. Tonight, though, will be a different story. My game script projects the Buccaneers get out in front early and Prescott has to bring the Cowboys back in the game through the air.
Leonard Fournette - RB, $8,600 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 193 attempts, 863 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 93 targets, 78 receptions, 510 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 63.44% snap rate, 57.51% attempt rate, 63.49% red zone attempt rate, 64.71% attempt rate < 5yd line, 14% target rate, 14.85% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 6.9% (4th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -7.1% (16th)
An optimal pairing to Dak Prescott, keeping in mind that game script projection I just mentioned, would be Leonard Fournette. I was very high on Fournette in redrafts this offseason, and am optimistic regarding his projection for this matchup. The Bucs have a strong DVOA projection both in terms of rushing as well as passing DVOA to the running back position. With Chris Godwin and Russell Gage's statuses uncertain (although both will likely play), Fournette should get passing work out of the backfield and should find the end zone at least once, making him a great play on this slate.
Other Flex Options: CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
DFS Value Plays
Jalen Tolbert - WR, $5,800 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: No Stats
- 2021 Data: No Data.
- Individual Matchup (vs Sean Murphy-Bunting): 18% targets per route, 65% catch rate, 0.33 fantasy points per route
As I mentioned previously, the Cowboys trading Amari Cooper away this offseason is considered a big blow to the offense but, along with Michael Gallup and James Washington being OUT for tonight's game, does open up the doors for other pass catchers in the offense to step up. This includes rookie Jalen Tolbert. Tolbert has arguably the best matchup of all Dallas wide receivers, and while I will have shares of all of them, I'll have Tolbert in a ton of my lineups.
Julio Jones - WR, $5,000 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats (incl. playoffs): 55 targets, 37 receptions, 496 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data (TEN): 56.7% snap rate, 14.44% target rate, 11.9% red zone target rate, four end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup: N/A
On the other side of the field, we'll look at another value receiver, Julio Jones. Jones had an up-and-down season last year in Tennessee but should be capable of a bounce back in the electric Tampa Bay passing offense. Sure, the receiver room is crowded, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and newly acquired Russell Gage. However, I'll look to Jones in a strong matchup to take care of business tonight and provide solid value, especially on DraftKings where his price is just too low.
Other Value Plays: Ryan Succop, Buccaneers D/ST, Cameron Brate
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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