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Dallas Cowboys wunderkind Ezekiel Elliott took the NFL and the fantasy football world by storm during his rookie campaign. The question is if Elliott will be outdone during his sophomore season by one of the new rookie running backs joining the league this year.
Elliott was the fantasy phenomenon many experts believed he would be in his rookie season. Running behind the best offensive line in football, Elliott was the centerpiece of Dallas’ surprisingly powerful offensive attack and won the league rushing title with 1,631 yards. He also added 15 rushing touchdowns and 40 receptions for 363 yards and an additional TD. Elliott was a first-round fantasy pick right out of the gate and did not disappoint the people who drafted him. If you chose Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley or Lamar Miller instead of Elliott, you probably did not win any money in your fantasy league.
The question for fantasy owners heading into 2017 drafts is whether the winning strategy is to draft a top rookie RB again or to simply take Zeke again. Let's break down the various options.
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The Future at Running Back Starts Now
While many NFL general managers believe that the running back position is not where high draft picks and multi-millions should be spent, there were several backs selected in the first couple rounds of this year’s draft, including two taken within the first 10 picks.
Jacksonville drafted LSU standout Leonard Fournette after suffering through T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory’s injuries and inconsistency. Fournette, a big back with breakaway speed, was regarded as the best runner available and someone an NFL offense can build a rushing attack around. Sounds a lot like how Elliott was regarded last season.
Jacksonville does not have the offensive line Dallas does, though. Fournette should also lose more touches to Yeldon and Ivory than Elliott will to Morris and McFadden. Fournette’s pass-catching ability is not equal to Elliott’s either. Fournette should have a solid rookie season, but he should not amass the yards and score the touchdowns Elliott will.
Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey could turn out to be the all-purpose back of fantasy owners’ dreams, the kind of back Reggie Bush was never able to fully become. With Jonathan Stewart rolling his ankles as much as Kawhi Leonard, McCaffrey is bound to get plenty of touches in the Panthers offense. But quarterback/franchise guy Cam Newton needs his carries, too, along with the ones Stewart will get (when healthy) on early downs and near the goal line. I could see McCaffrey rushing for 900 yards to go along with 500 receiving yards, but to peg him as better than Elliott in his first season seems hard to fathom.
Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook dropped in the draft when many experts thought he would be taken in the first round. The kid has first-round talent, though, and could end up being the best back of the rookie collection when the smoke clears in a couple years. Cook is going to have to battle newly-signed Latavius Murray (788 yards and 12 TD) and Adrian Peterson understudy Jerick McKinnon for playing time and touches, however, in 2017, so a 1,700-yard year that would best Elliott is highly unlikely.
Cincinnati was in the market for a running back because Giovani Bernard is coming off ACL surgery and is not guaranteed to be ready at the start of the season. Plodder Jeremy Hill has no trouble scoring touchdowns (21 over last two years), but has had a major problem averaging four yards per carry during that span (3.7 ypc between 2016-17). So, the Bengals using a second-round draft choice on Oklahoma runner Joe Mixon was not as overly surprising as it may seem on paper. Cincinnati also has a history of giving troubled players a second chance (Adam “Pacman” Jones for example), and Mixon surely needed one after being charged with assaulting a woman in 2014. But with Hill still playing the big back role and Bernard expected back within the first month of the season, Mixon’s fantasy value will be stunted in 2017, making him a better pick in dynasty than re-draft leagues.
Other rookie running backs that should have fantasy value but will fall short of Elliott’s worth are Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt and Washington’s Samaje Perine. The Chiefs traded up to snag Hunt in the draft, so they must think he can split carries with incumbent starter Spencer Ware, if not surpass him on the depth chart. But Hunt’s average speed could slow his ascent to the No. 1 spot in the backfield, and he does not look like the kind of tailback that could carry an offense and pile up tons of yards like Elliott.
Perine does not face much stiff competition for carries with the Redskins as only late-season starter Rob Kelley is the only back standing in his lane. Perine is a decisive downhill runner who runs best between the tackles and can take over as the main goal line back, yet Kelley is probably the better all-around player and will probably not be totally shoved to the sidelines like Matt Jones was last year, no matter how well Perine plays.
What About Zeke?
So can Elliott repeat or top what he did last season this season? It is highly doubtful that a sophomore slump is coming. He is still the main man in Dallas’ rushing attack. There were no moves made in the offseason to acquire any backs that could threaten Elliott’s role or playing time. Veterans Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden are capable backups and great at giving Elliott breathers during games, but neither is the talented game breaker/difference maker Elliott is. Elliott led the NFL in rushing attempts last year and should be handed the ball more than anyone else again this year unless Arizona forces its workhorse, David Johnson, to carry their offense even more than he already does.
The biggest problem Elliott is going to contend with is his revamped offensive line. Known as the NFL’s top line in 2015 and 2016, the Cowboys lost two starters during the offseason when left guard Ron Leary signed with the Denver Broncos and right tackle Doug Free retired. The pressure is on La’el Collins and Chaz Green to fill those roles and keep opening holes for Elliott. So Elliott may need to create more yardage via shifty moves and breaking tackles than he did last season.
Opposing defenses will have a better book on Elliott and quarterback Dak Prescott, but they had a better book towards the end of last season and it did not slow down either super rookie at the time. Elliott has the power to barrel through front sevens and the speed to outrun secondaries, and if Prescott keeps defenses honest with his passing and the line blocks does its jobs of creating gaps for Elliott to run through, there is no reason Elliott cannot have another 1,600-yard, 15-TD year unless an injury costs him some games.
This rookie running back class looks like one of the better groups the NFL has seen in years, but the best back from 2016, Mr. Elliott, will still reign supreme fantasy-wise over all the newcomers this season.
