2017 Player vs. Player - A.J. Green vs. Amari Cooper

7 years ago by Pierre Camus

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Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, two RotoBaller experts will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.

Our Player vs. Player series continues with a hot dynasty debate over two stud wideouts that any fantasy team would be happy to have.

Matt Terelle extols the virtues of picking Cincinnati Bengals star A.J. Green in a dynasty startup, while Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) explains why he believes Amari Cooper is the better choice.

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A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - Matt

A.J. Green, heading into his age-29 season, continues to be one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Green was well on his way to posting a career year in 2016 before a Week 11 hamstring injury knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Even though Green technically suited up for 10 games, he left his Week 11 contest against the Buffalo Bills after playing just two snaps, effectively making his 2016 season just nine games. In just over nine games, Green caught 66-of-100 targets for 964 yards and four touchdowns, falling short of a 1,000-yard season for the first time in his six-year career. Green continued his target hog ways in 2016, finishing the season second on the Bengals in targets and tied for second in red zone targets, even though he didn’t play in six games.

The addition of 2017 draft pick John Ross may seem like a negative for Green’s target share in 2017, but Ross’ elite deep speed will serve to open up the field for Green to operate. Sure, Green will lose a few targets but that will be offset by improved efficiency on the targets he does see. Furthermore, Tyler Eifert, Green’s primary competition for targets, has yet to finish a full NFL season without getting injured. One of the main concerns with the Bengals offense this year has been related to the team’s offensive line. Those concerns are founded as the Bengals’ offensive line is expected to take a major step back this season after they lost starters Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. While that may seem like a problem for the Bengals’ passing game, it will likely be more of an issue for the run game, which will force the team skew pass-heavier than they have in the past. A pass-heavy approach would certainly benefit Green and his fellow pass-catchers in 2017.

Give me the rock-solid, proven producer in Green, who should have another couple of elite seasons in his tank, followed by consistent production well into his 30s.

Amari Cooper (WR, OAK) - Pierre

Is Cooper going to be better for fantasy teams this year than Green? Maybe. Will Cooper be a consistent top-1o point-producing WR for the next several years like Green already has been? Maybe. It's hard for me to unequivocally state that Cooper will be as good as Green or better. But I'm willing to find out. Cooper was a four-star recruit out of the football haven that is South Florida and stood out at the college level for the juggernaut Alabama Crimson Tide. Now, he plays the WR1 role for the Oakland Raiders, who finished 12-4 last season and now boast the highest-paid quarterback in all the land. Cooper has always excelled at the highest level among the toughest competition and there is little chance he won't do so in the NFL. His stats last year were a bit disappointing compared to preseason expectations, but it's easy to forget it was his second year in the league and he was a mere 22 years old! Therein lies the biggest argument in favor of Cooper. While Green's best years may already be behind him, Cooper is just getting started.

Statistically, there isn't too much to separate the two otherwise. In his two seasons, Cooper caught 155 passes and averaged 14.3 Y/R, while Green collected 162 receptions at the start of his career and is at 14.8 Y/R for his career. It's true that Cooper could be more effective in the red zone, but he seems to be doing his best to change that. If you've seen recent pictures of him jacked up in the offseason, you'd think opposing cornerbacks might be afraid to cover him this season. A possible foot injury might also be to blame for his second half dip in production, despite the fact he didn't miss any games, but he showed his toughness by playing through it anyway. If you're a believer in the third-year breakout from wide receivers, that's just another feather in the cap of Cooper. Whether he becomes an "elite" receiver in the league this year remains to be seen, but it's more likely than not based on his pedigree.

Rebuttals

Matt - A.J. Green is the elite receiver here

I actually really like Amari Cooper. I own him on several of my dynasty teams and strongly believe he's at or near the top of the new wave of young, elite wide receivers in the NFL. In a dynasty format, it's tempting to side with Cooper over Green but I believe that any dynasty owner with designs on winning in 2017 should be valuing Green over Cooper.

First, Green practically matched Cooper's 2016 statistics despite playing in only 10 games compared to Cooper suiting up for all 16 of the Raiders' contests. In six fewer games, Green grabbed just 17 fewer passes, gained 189 fewer yards, and scored just one less touchdown. For all intents and purposes, Green would have blown away Cooper's statistics if a hamstring injury didn't end his season early.

My main drawback with Cooper is the fact that Michael Crabtree continues to eat into his opportunities, especially in the red zone. Crabtree saw 26 red zone targets in 2016 while Cooper earned just 17 looks inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Actually, somewhat surprisingly, Crabtree straight up out-targeted Cooper in 2016, the second straight season he has done so. Cooper has loads of potential and will soon develop into a sure-fire WR1 in fantasy, but it will probably be another season or two before he's ready to overtake Crabtree as the team's leading target getter. Green simply has a longer, more proven track record while also possessing more upside than Cooper. That will continue to be the case in dynasty until Cooper proves us otherwise.

Pierre - Cooper's ceiling outweighs Green's floor

There's really not much to say in the way of discouraging you from drafting Green, because it was only an injury that prevented him from notching a sixth straight 1,000-yard receiving season. In fact, in a re-draft league I would probably go with Green based on his higher floor and established track record. In dynasty, this is almost a no-brainer the other way. Green will be 29 to begin the 2017 season, which means Cooper has six more years of prime value to deliver. You simply have to take the long-term approach when drafting in a dynasty startup, which means age has to be considered as one of the primary factors. Receivers do have longer shelf-lives, but that doesn't mean you can simply ignore the fact that a stud receiver is approaching his 30s.

I'd also argue that Cooper is in a better situation. Even if rookies John Ross and Josh Malone don't eat into Green's targets much this year, they will pretty soon. The Raiders don't even have much in the way of a reliable WR3 and Jared Cook isn't going to affect anyone's target shares, so Cooper should be one of the highest-target receivers in the game. The Bengals are a decent team with a promising offense, but the Raiders are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Cooper isn't just one of the most desirable fantasy assets among all WR, he's on his way to becoming a star in the NFL and is worthy of a first-round pick in dynasty startups.