I was sitting in a bar with my wife last night when she looked down at her phone and suddenly started screaming. I thought that, maybe, one of her favorite celebrities had died or something, but no--she's a huge Chiefs fan and she'd just seen the notification that the Chiefs had traded Alex Smith to Washington.

Smith, who led the Chiefs to an AFC West title this past season, will be replaced by second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who looked fine in Week 17 but also will be responsible for getting a talented team back to the playoffs again.

Of all the rumored landing spots for Smith, this is the most interesting because it creates the most ripples. Smith isn't joining a team that desperately needed a quarterback; he joins a team that had a fine quarterback in Kirk Cousins who now will hit the free agency market with a huge host of suitors. So, let's analyze this trade in three different ways--how it affects Washington, how it affects Kansas City, and what could end up happening with Kirk Cousins.

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

Let's talk about the categories in which Alex Smith posted career highs during the 2017 season. He threw the most touchdown passes of his career (26), he had the lowest interception rate of his career (just 1.0 percent), his net yards per pass attempt was over seven for the first time in his career, and Pro Football Reference assigned him the highest Approximate Value of his career. Smith completed 67.5 percent of his passes, the second-highest mark of his career and the highest for a season in which he started at least 10 games.

And yet, he was 33 years old. Interception rate aside, his numbers weren't wildly different from what Kirk Cousins did back in 2016.

A big part of how you feel about this trade comes down to how you feel about Alex Smith's late-career renaissance and if you think it's sustainable. Smith adapting to a new system won't necessarily be a problem, as he made the Pro Bowl during his first year in Kansas City, but keeping up his new gunslinger mentality will be an issue. You're betting on a guy who had 8.6 adjusted yards per pass attempt in 2018 after having just 7.0 the year before.

Only five quarterbacks in their age 33 seasons have posted eight or more adjusted yards per attempt and a completion percentage of 65 or greater while starting the majority of their team's games. Alex Smith is one of them. The other four? Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, and Steve Young. Brady is the only one who went on to repeat that the next season.

It's far-fetched to suddenly believe Alex Smith is going to sustain a level of accuracy and deep throwing that only Brady was able to do in consecutive seasons at that age. I think a better comparison here might be Josh McCown, who fits the criteria listed above during his age 34 season. He then went on to have a disastrous year in Tampa Bay the next year. Smith has a more proven track record than McCown does, which makes this a not-great comparison. Maybe the issue is that it's hard to really find a comparison of a player with the career numbers of Smith doing this. He's not a complete fluke like McCown, but he also isn't Tom Brady. Maybe the best guess is that Smith reverts back to something resembling his earlier Chiefs seasons, when he was a completely competent and slightly above average quarterback who, yes, had a reputation for short throws.

Smith finished as the QB3 in fantasy last season. It's his only top-10 fantasy finish ever. Kirk Cousins has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback for three consecutive years. Maybe Smith can help Washington win in real life next season since he rarely turns the ball over and has good short range accuracy, but I just can't see him repeating this year's performance or topping what Cousins has done the last few years. He probably ends up regressing back to his averages and finishes somewhere around the QB15 spot. That's worth a spot on most fantasy rosters, but it isn't going to save anyone's season.

Alex Smith's Impact on Washington's Receivers

There are two ways of thinking about this: the impact if Alex Smith keeps up his deep throws or the impact if he doesn't. If Smith somehow keeps up last year's numbers, Josh Doctson could be a big beneficiary in the deep passing game, but let's just stay in line with the idea posited above that Smith won't be able to sustain the same level of play. Let's put him closer to what he did earlier in his Chiefs tenure, which gives us something like a 65 percent completion percentage, something in the 3,300 to 3,500 yard range, and around 20 touchdowns. That's a big statistical downgrade from what Kirk Cousins has done in Washington, though there are factors that could push Smith back up toward the 4,000 yard mark.

That team is banking on the decrease in turnovers and the high completion rate being enough to make things happen for them, but that's risky. The Chiefs have routinely had a decent run game throughout Smith's time in Kansas City, something Washington doesn't necessarily have going for them. They'll need to figure that out, and having a healthy Chris Thompson could go a long way toward that, especially if Samaje Perine improves.

If we assume Washington will run the ball more to mitigate some of the issues with Smith as a passer and to keep his much older arm fresh, we're still looking at 500 fewer passing yards over the course of the season than the team had last year. That's where the above-mentioned "other factors" come into play. Chris Thompson had 510 receiving yards last season for Washington, a career high. But he did that on a yards per reception mark that was six yards higher than in 2016. A lot of Smith's upside depends on if we get this past season's Thompson or we get the less effective earlier version of him. Coming off a fractured fibula that ended his 2017 season early, it's hard to predict what we get from Thompson.

Jamison Crowder should benefit from Smith's presence as he'll likely be a big part of Washington's short passing game. Smith, even with regression factored in, will still be a good passer in short range situations. Crowder, who averaged the fewest yards per catch of Washington's main wide receivers last season, should at least replicate last season's numbers.

Josh Doctson is harder to pinpoint. He had the lowest catch percentage on the team last season and the highest yards per catch of the wide receivers. I don't think Smith is the right quarterback for Doctson, a guy who is at his best as a downfield threat. He could improve his yardage total just from the sheer fact that he HAS to get better at actually catching the football, but it's hard to predict huge things for a player who enters his third season still looking to break out. He could replicate Tyreek Hill's 2017 success, but that depends a lot on Smith's arm and on Washington's offensive line and their ability to give Smith the time to look deep. Remember: Kirk Cousins actually led the league last season in yards lost on sacks.

Ryan Grant probably suffers the most. Demarcus Robinson was third among Chiefs wide receivers in catches last season and he had just 21 catches for 212 yards. Smith seems to prefer to spread the ball out to backup receivers and tight ends in a way that doesn't give any of them consistent fantasy value.

Then there's the tight end position. If Jordan Reed is actually, finally healthy, he could be in line for big things, as Smith likes to rely on top, talented tight ends as he did with Travis Kelce in Kansas City. The problem? I don't know if Jordan Reed is still the same player he was the last time we saw him 100 percent healthy. A healthy Reed who can threaten defenses will do a lot for Smith, but can potential Smith fantasy owners bank on that? And can they bank on Vernon Davis, who will be 34, performing well again? This position is a major puzzle piece in determining how Smith will perform and how Smith's love of tight ends will help them. Smith does have a history with Davis, but age could catch up to the veteran tight end at any moment.

What About Mahomes?

If Patrick Mahomes is the guy everyone in Kansas City believes he is, then he could approach 2017 Alex Smith numbers during his career, but I'm not comfortable saying he does that in his first season as a starter.

Mahomes looked fine in his one start, though he didn't throw a touchdown pass. But, Kansas City played that game without their key offensive starters, so I'm not sure how much information we can really glean from a game in which Albert Wilson was the Chiefs' top receiver.

Still, Mahomes fits the mold of what this Kansas City offense wants to do. He's got a big arm and should be able to connect on deep throws to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and the fact that Albert Wilson had 10 catches for 147 in that Mahomes-led Chiefs game suggests good things for both Mahomes with a full array of receivers and Wilson if he goes into next season as the Chiefs number two receiver.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Chiefs make a move at the receiver position to bring in someone who better compliments Hill and Kelce. I'm leaving my Mahomes ranking unfinished for now, because we need to know all the circumstances around a young quarterback before we can make solid predictions. I will say that I'm not expecting him to equal Smith's QB3 mark from last season, and I'd be more comfortable putting him around the QB15 mark (which is, coincidentally, where I expect Smith to finish as well).

Now, About Kirk Cousins...

I'll just briefly touch on Cousins here. He'll be a free agent and there should be a half dozen teams vying for his services. He's been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in all three of his seasons as a full time starter. The list of teams currently interested in him seems to be Denver, Arizona, Cleveland, and the Jets. He'd be varying degrees of effective in any of those situations, but even a worst case scenario (Cleveland) likely puts him just outside the top 10. (Also, as someone who owns Cousins in the Rotoballer Dynasty League, I am just really, really hoping for no Cleveland, especially if the Browns let Josh Gordon walk.)

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis