Fantasy Reflections: To Stash A Prospect

Several of the game’s top prospects have already been called up, none met with more excitement than Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna. The consensus best player in the minors finally got promoted on April 25 and is hitting .382/.432/.706 through eight games, with two home runs and five doubles already.

That kind of production is what inspired fantasy owners to bet big on Acuna this spring. Despite there being no guarantee of him breaking camp with the big club, the Braves’ phenom carried a 101 ADP. The general consensus was that Acuna would be up sooner rather than later, and that the potential payoff was worth rostering a player who might not contribute anything for several weeks.

Keeper and dynasty formats place a great deal of emphasis on young talent, but even owners in redraft leagues are constantly on the hunt for the next great prospect stash. Identifying that player, and the right time to add him, can make the difference between a championship season and another year as an also-ran.

To Stash or Not to Stash?

Below, you’ll find a trio of tables. Each contains a sampling of 10 prospects who fulfill three criteria. First, they were not drafted in standard 12-team leagues for the season in question; second, they were promoted sometime after Opening Day of that season; third, they were broadly considered to be among the game’s best prospects coming into that season.

2017

2016

2015

This isn’t a comprehensive sample, nor is it meant to be. What it does accomplish is to provide a general picture of ETA and results from notable rookies over the last three years. The average debut of this group was June 5, roughly a third of the way through the season. Most of these players produced some measure of value, though several did not. That’s not surprising; we all know that despite the remarkable influx of young talent in recent years, not every rookie hits the ground running.

So what should you take into consideration when your finger is hovering over the “add player” button?

Player profile: Not every prospect has equal real-life and fantasy value. Some players are highly regarded in the game because they play excellent defense, or have a well-rounded skillset that keeps their floor high but lack a standout tool. Are there any red flags in their minor league track record, such as a high strikeout rate for a hitter or inflated walk rate for a pitcher? Does the league or park in which they currently play potentially skew their numbers?

Team context: Does the organization in question tend to overtly manipulate service time for young players? Are they contending or rebuilding? Is the player currently starting at the prospect’s position injured, ineffective, or a potential trade candidate?

Recent trends: Is this player throwing darts or tearing the cover off the ball in the minors? Have high-profile writers been talking him up? Are fantasy owners currently adding him en masse?

Your situation: Does your league have a NA slot or deep benches, or are you willing to accept the opportunity cost of rostering a player who won’t help you right now? Do you need help at this prospect’s position? Do your rivals tend to add prospects early or hoard them? Are you prepared to burn a high waiver priority or a large chunk of FAAB on a speculative add that may not pan out?

Every situation is different and requires consideration of any and all of the above factors. Even with a sound process, you’ll still occasionally wind up with an Amed Rosario or Jose Berrios instead of a Cody Bellinger or Noah Syndergaard. But taking the time to think things through before you mash that add button can help you make the right choice more often than not.

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