RADIO
Hello and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Francesco Molinari was a runaway freight train Sunday at the Quicken Loans National, firing a final-round 62 to win his first PGA Tour event by an eight shot margin. Tiger Woods finished tied for fourth and continued his inconsistent ways. The Horses didn't fare as well as we've become accustomed to, with Rickie Fowler leading the way in a 12th place finish. This week we head to beautiful West Virginia for A Military Tribute at The Greenbrier. Xander Schauffele took home the title in last year's edition and he is back to defend this week. The Greenbrier began hosting this tournament in 2010, so we have a decent base for course history. There was no event held in 2016 due to the tragic flooding in West Virginia that year, but we still have seven years worth of Greenbrier events to draw from. Let's get back on track and get to it!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: The Old White TPC - Par 70 - 7,286 Yards
The Old White TPC has been around for over a century and played host to the PGA Tour since 2010. Massive flooding in West Virginia two years ago forced a redesign of Charles Blair McDonald's original layout. There is a definite Scottish feel to the Greenbrier layout. Players can score on the Par 70, as evidenced by Stuart Appleby's final-round 59 in 2010. Xander Schauffele won last year's edition at 14-under par and Danny Lee took home the 2015 title at 13-under. We will look for player's that can rack up birdies and eagles this week. The Old White TPC has very generous fairways and players that have length off the tee should be able to fire away. The Greenbrier greens are bentgrass, so its helpful to identify players that do well on that putting surface.
The Horse
Tony Finau (DraftKings - $11,500 & FanDuel - $12,000 )
This week's Horse is one of my personal favorite players on the PGA Tour. Tony Finau has a sick amount of game. He hits it a mile and is slowly, but surely, figuring out the short game. Those that watch the majors probably noticed Finau's name pop up on leaderboards at both The Masters and the U.S. Open this year. The young star from Utah logged a T10 at Augusta National and a fifth at Shinnecock Hills...pretty impressive stuff. Finau only has one career victory on the PGA Tour, the 2016 Puerto Rico Open, but he seems primed for a breakthrough win. I would not be at all surprised if that win comes this week in West Virginia.
Though Finau's course history at The Old White TPC is not as extensive as we normally require in this article, it is positive. The Greenbrier has been kind to Finau in just two starts, he notched a T13 in 2015 and a T7 last year. While those results aren't eye-popping, they illustrate that Finau's game translates well to the course. In DFS we always want to be ahead of the trends and Finau's course history blends well with his current form and career trajectory. Another PGA Tour win for Finau is coming soon and he is perhaps the most talented player in this week's field. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in driving distance and 18th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
Finau is the highest priced player on DraftKings this week at $11,500. Though he is the odds-on Vegas favorite for The Greenbrier, this is new pricing territory for him. I wonder if lots of DFS regulars will suffer from "sticker shock" when they see Finau's price? In a way, the high price can work to our advantage, especially in GPPs. If Finau was priced at $9,500 we would see his ownership be at ridiculous levels. With the high price tag, we should be able to stick him in GPP lineups at fairly reasonable ownership levels. At this price, Finau basically needs to win the tournament, but I believe that the big hitter is very capable of leaving West Virginia victorious this week.
The Ponies
Bubba Watson (DK - $11,000 & FD - $11,800 )
I featured Bubba Watson as a Pony for the Travelers Championship two weeks ago and he went on to win the tournament. I'm not too proud to ride the hot hand and I'm going back to the well with Bubba. Like TPC River Highlands a few weeks ago, The Old White TPC is a "Bubba course". I mentioned in my last write-up on Bubba that perhaps more than any other player on tour, course history is especially crucial when evaluating Watson's chances in an upcoming tournament. He is very course-dependant...usually playing extremely well at his favorites and not so well at courses he dislikes. Watson owns a home in The Greenbrier community, so it's pretty safe to say he's fond of the place.
Watson's finishes at The Greenbrier don't blow you away, but they are solid. He finished an ugly T70 last year, in his worst year as a professional. If we throw out 2017, we like what we see; a T13 in 2015, T16 in 2014, and a T30 in 2013. Though the finishes aren't spectacular, I'm encouraged by Bubba's play at The Old White TPC...14 of his 16 rounds have been scores in the 60's. Fans that follow golf know that Bubba is streaky and can chalk up wins in bunches. His fondness for The Greenbrier combined with his recent hot play, make me a believer in Bubba's chances this week.
As I mentioned before the Travelers Championship, Bubba isn't allowed anywhere near my cash game lineups. Once again, I believe he is an excellent GPP-specific play. His style of play and salary this week just don't lend themselves to those going the conservative route. Watson is always a boom-or-bust option, but that is especially true this week, as he sports an $11,000 DK price tag. I think Bubba is in great shape both physically and mentally right now. I will be counting on him in large-field GPP lineups this week.
Russell Henley (DK - $10,400 & FD - $10,500 )
We go from one streaky player to another. Russell Henley has certainly been trending in the right direction lately. The former Georgia Bulldog flirted with the lead early at the recent U.S. Open, before a T25 finish. In his most recent outing at the Travelers Championship, Henley fired four rounds in the 60's on the way to a T6. He also had a nice Masters outing earlier this year, finishing T15 in 2017's first major.
On top of his excellent recent form, Henley has the type of resume at The Old White TPC that we look for. He has logged back-to-back Top-5 finishes at The Greenbrier in 2015 and 2017. Henley also tossed in a T30 in 2013, so we have to love his comfort level in West Virginia. Henley isn't flashy, but he hits fairways and greens at an excellent clip. He ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and 22nd in Greens in Regulation.
Like so many other players this week, Henley's DFS price feels high. He's typically not a player that we are willing to pay over 10k for. However, like Tony Finau, I think the pricing will push Henley's ownership levels down. I believe that many DFS players will skip over Henley in favor of Xander Schauffele or Webb Simpson, two players that he is sandwiched between on DraftKings. He is a GPP play and the perfect player for those multi-entering large tournaments to get heavy exposure to.
Ted Potter Jr. (DK - $7,600 & FD - $8,100)
I wish I had a "silver bullet" value play to give my regular readers after the disaster that was Peter Malnati last week. The best I can come up with on the lower end of the pricing spectrum this week is Ted Potter Jr. If "TPJ" doesn't get your blood pumping, I don't know what will! All jokes aside, Potter Jr. has phenomenal course history at The Old White TPC. The veteran seems to wake up and win a PGA Tour event about once every five years and he took home The Greenbrier Classic title in 2012. In addition to the 2012 win, Potter has played exceptionally well in this tournament over the years; he followed up the win with a T6 in 2013, a T26 in 2014, and a T37 last year.
Potter has flashed some form in 2018. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach title earlier this year in stunning fashion by holding off superstars Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Phil Mickelson. He has been relatively quiet since the upset win, save a T16 at Harbour Town and a T27 at the Wells Fargo Championship. Potter did pop a bit last week and scored a T23 at the Quicken Loans National despite a horrid short game performance. He is definitely a tough player to figure out, as his stats don't stand out much, but he can seemingly go low out of nowhere like he did with a 62 at Pebble Beach earlier this year. He is certainly capable of making birdies at The Old White TPC, as he posted back-to-back 64's during his 2012 victory.
This is a tough week to find DFS value. The site's seem to be making us work hard this week. Potter offers some relative safety at a reduced $7,600 price point. He gives us some much-needed salary relief when constructing GPP lineups. I normally don't recommend my value plays for cash game lineups, but in a week that pricing is extremely tough, those with some gamble can deploy Potter in all formats. I will go light on him in cash, but will be slightly heavy in large-field GPPs.
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