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Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 7

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Hits and misses were the theme of Week 6, with Derrick Henry and Ronald Jones II coming through huge for us at the RB position, while players like DeVante Parker and Jonnu Smith hurt us due to injuries. Week 7 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 7. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 7 Picks

Josh Allen - BUF @ NYJ ($7,700)

Josh Allen's evolution was one of the hot topics over the first month of the season, but he's now logged a couple of relatively disappointing outings in his last two starts. Allen gets the mother of all bounce-back matchups against the abysmal New York Jets this week. He destroyed the Jets in Week 1, posting 33.2 DK points on 312 yards passing and 57 yards rushing that resulted in 3 TDs. There's reason to believe Allen will get back on track against a New York defense that's allowing opposing QBs to complete passes at nearly a 72% clip and is relinquishing over eight yards per attempt. Another reason to consider the Bills signal caller - especially in GPPs - is that his ownership should be noticeably depressed with all the other eye-catching QB options that are available on this slate.

Kyler Murray - SEA @ ARI ($7,100)

While Josh Allen will be contrarian, Kyler Murray will be chalk city this week. However, it's hard to argue with the play, as Murray's combination of production and matchup is hard to ignore. The second-year QB leads the position in rushing yards with 370 and has accounted for 6 TDs on the ground this season. He's also proven efficient when asked to throw the ball, posting 1,487 yards and 10 TDs. The matchup is a great one, as the Seahawks have been routinely shredded by opposing QBs. Seattle has allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position and ranks 31st in the league in passing yards allowed. This game comes in with a "high and tight" O/U and point spread...and there's lots of paths that lead to this one turning into a true shootout.

Joe Burrow - CLE @ CIN ($5,500)

Those of you looking to pay down at the QB position might want to consider Cincy rookie Joe Burrow. The LSU product has looked every bit the part of a number-one draft pick, despite, ya know...playing for the Bengals. Burrow has thrown for 1,617 yards - the eighth-most in the NFL - and toasted the Browns for 316 yards and 3 TDs in their Week 2 matchup. Speaking of TDs, the rookie hasn't thrown for one in his last two games, so I think we can expect some positive regression in that department at some point. As for the matchup, it's an intriguing one, as the Browns rank bottom-five in the NFL in completions, passing yards, and passing TDs allowed.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 7 Picks

Alvin Kamara - CAR @ NO ($7,900)

Alvin Kamara in Week 7 reminds me a lot of Derrick Henry in Week 6...we have an uber-talented player in an absolute smash matchup. Yes, of course he could "fail", but why overthink it?

Kamara has posted 150.6 DK points this season - the most by a RB - and has combined for 20-or-more carries/targets in every Saints game to this point. He'll square off against a Panthers Defense that's allowed the second-most DK points in the NFL to the RB position, are tied with Houston for the most TDs allowed (8) in the league, and - perhaps most importantly in Kamara's case - are relinquishing a ridiculous 85.5% catch rate to RBs out of the backfield.

Aaron Jones - GB @ HOU ($7,200)

Speaking of Derrick Henry's Week 6 matchup...Aaron Jones wins the prize egg this week, as he's set to square off against a struggling Houston Texans Defense. The Texans contained Henry for a decent portion of the game last week before eventually allowing him to explode for 212 yards on the ground. It was the fourth time this season they've allowed a 100-plus yard rusher. Houston ranks dead last in the NFL in DK points, rushing yards, and rushing TDs allowed to the RB position. It's an appetizing matchup for Jones, a player with a lower floor than most "elite" RBs, but a guy that carries as much upside as anyone in the league, as evidenced by his 48.6 DK point performance against the Lions in Week 2.

Jerick McKinnon - SF @ NE ($5,800)

The revolving door at the RB position continues for the San Francisco 49ers, as Raheem Mostert went down yet again last week. With Tevin Coleman on IR, Jerick McKinnon will once again be asked to step into the lead role for this Niners backfield. He performed well in two games as the top option in San Fran, rushing for 92 yards and 2 TDs on 28 carries, and catching 10 of 12 targets for 82 yards, in Weeks 3 and 4. There are a couple of reasons to be skittish here...Niners rookie JaMychal Hasty received nine carries when Mostert left last week and the matchup against the New England Patriots is a tough one. Taking those drawbacks into account, McKinnon is an explosive, dual-threat back with a sub-$6k price tag. He's worth a long look.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 7 Picks

DeAndre Hopkins - SEA @ ARI ($8,200)

I'm normally a fan of paying down at WR, but as with Alvin Kamara this week, some spots are just too good to ignore. Arizona's DeAndre Hopkins is such an example. Hopkins tops the WR salary scale, but draws what can only be described as a smash matchup against the Seattle Seahawks this week. Seattle's secondary is a shell of its former self. The team that was once upon a time a matchup that we went out of our way to avoid with WRs is now one that we want to target. The Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, and catches allowed to the WR position. It will be tough for them to slow down Nuk, a player that has been outstanding in his new Arizona home, and has went for over 130 receiving yards in three of the Cards six contests on an average of 12.2 targets per game. Seattle is a true funnel defense that's allowing just 3.73 yards per carry on the ground, so we can expect the Arizona passing attack to be deployed often in this matchup.

Terry McLaurin - DAL @ WAS ($5,800)

I honestly feel as though I could include Terry McLaurin in this column every week. He remains frozen in this mid-to-high-$5k price range, despite being one of the most explosive receivers in the game. McLaurin's production is undoubtedly hurt by both Washington's QB situation and overall offense, though his volume has stayed consistent despite the revolving door at QB. McLaurin has been targeted 58 times this season (11.6 targets per game), which is good for the fifth-most targets in the league. He and the WFT offense draw a "circle it on your calendar" matchup against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7. The 'Boys struggles on defense this season have been well documented, but just to reinforce how bad it is, this Dallas unit ranks in the bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, receiving yards, TDs, and yards per target allowed to the WR position. We're targeting upside at WR and "The Jet" has both the talent and usage needed to crush his salary in this matchup.

Mike Williams - JAX @ LAC ($4,700)

This year has been the weirdest one that many of us have ever seen, so in true 2020 fashion, we're talking about the LA Chargers passing attack. A combination of injuries to Tyrod Taylor, Austin Ekeler, and a large portion of the LA defense has forced rookie Justin Herbert into action earlier than expected. The results have been surprisingly-good, at least from a fantasy perspective. Mike Williams has a pretty non-existent fantasy floor, but I love his upside in GPP formats. Williams had a nice game LA's last time out, racking up 109 yards and 2 TDs on five catches in an overtime loss to New Orleans. Keenan Allen left that game early, so Williams did see an uptick in usage, but the upside is there even if Allen returns this week. His juicy aDOT of 18.2 is one of the highest in the league and he's accounted for 27.7% of the Chargers air yards this season. He'll face a Jags secondary that's allowing nine yards per catch to opposing WRs. This definitely isn't a "safe" play, but is one that could pay big dividends in large-field tournaments.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 7 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ DEN ($6,300)

If you've played NFL DFS regularly this season, chances are you're pretty frustrated with the TE position. I know I certainly am, as the position has consistently been a weak spot in my lineups. Hopefully, we can change that this week, as we finally get Travis Kelce back on the main slate. The KC tight end has been the most consistent producer at the position this season, churning out an average of 19.3 DK points per game. That consistency can be attributed to his steady role in this high-powered Chiefs offense. Kelce leads the NFL in TE targets (53), receptions (37), yards (470), and TDs (5). The matchup against Denver isn't a standout one, but the Broncos have allowed 73% catch rate to opposing TEs this season. Kelce's talent and usage in this offense make him virtually matchup proof and a solid bet to end any drought you might be experiencing at the TE position.

Austin Hooper - CLE @ CIN ($4,000)

Remember Austin Hooper? You know, the guy that signed the highest TE deal in history over the offseason. Nobody would blame you if you forgot about Hooper, as he was basically non-existent in this Browns offense for the first month of the season. However, Cleveland must have realized how much they're paying the guy, because he's actually getting some looks as of late. Hooper has been targeted 23 times over Cleveland's last three games, snagging 15 catches for 143 yards and a TD. This production is what fantasy forecasters had in mind for him this year and he has a great chance to keep it going this week against the Bengals, a team that ranks 30th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to the TE position.



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Daily Fantasy Golf FanDuel Picks (PGA DFS) - ZOZO Championship

Hello RotoBaller PGA family! Jason Kokrak took down an elite field at Shadow Creek to claim his first victory on the PGA Tour. Kokrak, as well as many of the other CJ Cup contenders, were highlighted in this column last week, so I hope you some of you guys had a nice payday on FanDuel!

This week's ZOZO Championship shares lots of similarities to the CJ Cup. It's an elite, limited field with just 78 players in a no-cut format. We're also dealing with a golf course in Sherwood Country Club that we don't regularly see on the PGA Tour's schedule. In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the ZOZO Championship. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options.

Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood - PGA DFS Overview

Sherwood Country Club

7,006 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bent - Designer: Jack Nicklaus

Sherwood Country Club is a beautiful Jack Nicklaus layout that contains both breathtaking views and difficult decisions for the players. It's a strategic golf course with several risk/reward holes, including the drivable Par-4 opener and FIVE Par-5s that can be played either aggressively or conservatively. In true Nicklaus fashion, this is a layout that places emphasis on position off the tee and requires a precise second shot. The length will be no problem for the players in this week's field, but Nicklaus' routing - that includes multiple doglegs - will prevent an all-out "Bomb & Gauge" assault. We already mentioned the layouts unique number of Par-5s (five) and Sherwood will also throw five Par-3s at this field...which will force me to weight both Par-5 and Par-3 scoring fairly heavily. Like last week, players will face Bentgrass green surfaces.

Despite Sherwood's lack of length on the scorecard, I look for it to provide a fairly stern test for the field. I'll be leaning accuracy and total driving over sheer distance when considering off the tee stats, while attempting to target sharp ball strikers with hot irons. I never give too much weight to putting, but I'll glance at splits on Bent, while also sneaking a peek at scrambling/bogey avoidance.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Sherwood CC Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Par 5: Birdies or Better Gained
  • Par 3: Birdies or Better Gained
  • SG: Putting (Bent)
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Scrambling

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.

High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players 

Justin Thomas ($11,800)

Justin Thomas demonstrated some frustration by tossing his ball in the water as he walked off the 72nd hole at Shadow Creek last week. I imagine JT's anger continues to grow as he just can't seem to put it all together as of late. Thomas by no means played bad at the CJ Cup en route to a T12, but the putter continually failed him, as he gained six strokes T2G yet lost nearly a stroke on the greens. At some point in the near future, JT will have everything clicking and there's a strong chance that happens this week at the ZOZO on a Sherwood layout that rewards accuracy off the tee, strategic thinking, and sharp iron play...all tools that Thomas possesses in spades.

Xander Schauffele ($11,600)

Xander was one of our favorites in this column last week and he rewarded us by nearly winning at Shadow Creek, eventually settling for a runner-up position in spite of a final-round 66. There are some rumblings that Schauffele isn't closing out golf tournaments, but I find that argument to be pretty thin, as actual wins can sometimes be flukey (Jason Kokrak shot 64 Sunday, not much you can do about that). Rather than nitpicking the fact that he lost, I'm focused on the positive that Xander continues to reliably offer great DFS returns for us by giving himself chances in tons of tournaments. There is a tiny concern of a "hangover" this week, but we have to believe that his rock-solid tee-to-green abilities will once again put him in great position at Sherwood.

Webb Simpson ($11,300)

I don't remember ever feeling bad about rostering Webb Simpson. The dude is just always consistent. Since missing the cut at the Charles Schwab in the first event of the restart, Webb has posted a win, four top-10s, and two top-25s, against just one missed cut over 10 starts. The only layouts that I'm somewhat reluctant to roster the light hitter are long ones, but this week's 7,000-yard Sherwood course is certainly nothing to worry about. The Jack Nicklaus-design will actually play right into Webb's strengths...accuracy off the tee, great iron play, and the ability to scramble & make putts. Simpson logged a top-five on this course in 2013 at the World Challenge charity event and he's perhaps my favorite play on the board this week due to his ever-consistent form and the course fit.

Collin Morikawa ($11,100)

Morikawa has been rather quiet since his huge PGA Championship win, but there are some signs that he's emerging from the post-major-win haze. He posted a that's-more-Morikawa-like mark of +5.8 strokes on Approach last week at the CJ Cup - his best iron performance since the PGA. We also have to believe that Sherwood CC is tailor made for his game with its demand for precision. The youngster emerged victorious on a Jack Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village layout earlier this year at the Workday Open and has the tools needed to get the job done this week. He stands just 51st in this field in Driving Distance over the last 24 rounds, but ranks fifth in Fairways Gained...the aspect off the tee that I'm targeting on this golf course.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,900) 

The Englishman heads to the ZOZO in the midst of an absolute heater. Hatton captured the BMW Championship in Europe two weeks ago and followed the victory up with an eye-opening performance last week at the CJ Cup. He gained a MASSIVE 9.2 strokes on Approach at Shadow Creek to lead the field in that category en route to a T3 finish. Like some of the other players we've already discussed, Hatton isn't a bomber, which won't be a huge detriment to him this week. My only concern is "narrative based" and I worry that he might simply run out of steam at some point after flying to Las Vegas and contending on the heels of a win in Europe. Mental and physical fatigue is something that we just can't accurately predict for DFS purposes, but we have seen it happen with these guys before, so I feel that it is worth a mention. All that said...Hatton is a terrific play on paper.

Tiger Woods ($10,300)

Call me sentimental, but I'm gonna at least give the Big Cat a look this week. Tiger's play hasn't exactly been encouraging in the limited starts he's made this year, but this week's situation seems to be the best one for him in quite awhile. He's won on this Sherwood layout FIVE times and finished runner-up FIVE times over the 13-year period that it played host to his charity World Challenge event. This is a second-shot golf course that requires strategic thinking and - while he's struggled in many ways this year - he's still gained strokes on Approach in every start he's made in 2020. We have to imagine that Woods is gearing himself up for a title defense and - if he's physically able - will be competitive at his old stomping grounds this week.

 

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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Matthew Wolff ($10,200)

If you guys read this column last week, then you know that I was in on Matthew Wolff. That decision proved to be disastrous on what was an otherwise awesome week at the CJ Cup. Wolff played shockingly-bad at Shadow Creek - so bad that I was actually apologizing to people in the RotoBaller PGA Premium Slack thread - posting an opening-round 80 and never improving much. So, the emotional side of me wants to avoid Wolff in every way possible this week due to him tanking many lineups for me last week, BUT the analytical side of me says this is actually a sharp bounce-back spot for the youngster.

He literally grew up at Sherwood CC, living just seven miles away from the course. Wolff says that he's played it "1,000's of times", which should give him a leg up on this week's field with many competitors that have probably never seen the course. It doesn't seem like a great fit on paper for the "Bomb & Gauge" specialist, but - prior to last week's debacle - he had been trending up both with his iron play and his around the green game. Despite the frustration I feel from his "performance" at Shadow Creek, I'll keep an eye on his ownership projections and will use him in GPPs if he's going underowned.

Viktor Hovland ($10,100)

This kid just continues to impress me and remains one of my favorite young players on the PGA Tour. Hovland stumbled out of the gate a bit last week with an opening-round 75, but played the rest of the week in 11-under par to snag a share of 12th place in the CJ Cup. His strength lies in his world-class ball striking and he heads to Sherwood ranked second in this field in both Good Drives & Greens In Regulation Gained over his last 12 measured rounds. Yes, the short game is still a work in progress, but the youngster has actually gained strokes both around and on the greens in his last two starts, both of which were on very difficult golf courses (Winged Foot & Shadow Creek), and Bent has been by far his preferred putting surface. The only drawback with Hovland is that he's struggling to put four rounds together, but I love his explosive tee-to-green ability on tough layouts and like getting four guaranteed rounds out of him in these no-cut events.

Bubba Watson ($9,900)

We were ahead of the curve on Bubba last week, as he was one of our favorites at Shadow Creek. We snagged him at $8.4k in the CJ Cup, but FanDuel has bumped him all the way up to $9.9k on this slate. Can we stick with him? The ball-striking numbers indicate that we probably should, even at this higher price point. Bubba has been a machine as of late and leads this field in SG: T2G, Good Drives Gained, and GIRs Gained over his last 12 rounds. We can also consider that he's one of the few players in the field that has some actual competitive rounds at Sherwood under his belt. Watson went 6th/9th/3rd over his last three appearances in the World Challenge charity event that was held here from 2000 to 2013. The putter is the big concern here, as he managed a T7 last week despite once again losing strokes putting (-1.7) at Shadow Creek.

Joaquin Niemann ($9,700)

Yet another player that we liked at the CJ Cup, Niemann has also received a FD price bump on the strength of a sixth-place finish last week. As with Bubba Watson, the numbers indicate that we can stay the course with the young Chilean. He gained 7.6 strokes T2G at the CJ Cup and his irons were especially sharp, as a mark of +4.7 SG: Approach indicates. Niemann checks multiple boxes for us at Sherwood...he stands 17th in the field in Good Drives Gained, ninth in GIRs Gained, and fourth in Scrambling Gained. As a bonus, Bentgrass is traditionally his best putting surface. Overall, just a lot to like tee-to-green for the youngster this week.

 

Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Russell Henley ($9,200)

Man...Henley was sooo close last week. We loved his ball-striking ability going into the CJ Cup and - while he certainly performed in that area, gained 3.4 strokes on Approach - we were lucky enough to have his spotty putter wake up and get him into contention. His ridiculous mark of 9.0 SG: Putting is undoubtedly an outlier that he won't be able to repeat this week, but he's still a very solid DFS option on a Sherwood layout that caters to ball strikers. Henley has quietly been the best iron player on the PGA Tour since the restart and grades out first in this field in SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. We're hoping the putter stays at least warm this week, as his irons should once again give him plenty of scoring opportunities.

Sebastian Munoz ($8,700)

He's been easy to overlook with all the star-studded fields we've seen over the past couple of months, but Sebastian Munoz has been under-the-radar excellent since late summer. His T9 last week at the CJ Cup was his THIRD top-10 finish since August. Munoz is getting it done by being solid in all facets of the game and he's now gained strokes T2G in seven of his last 10 starts. There's a strong chance that he'll go overlooked again this week, but he's one of the stronger value options available on this slate.

Cameron Smith ($8,600)

As long as the DFS sites continue to price Cameron Smith too cheap, I'm going to continue going to the well with the Aussie. FD has raised his price tag this week, but $8.6k still feels like a value for what we're getting with him. Smith's usual downfall is his often-inconsistent ball striking, but he's now gained strokes on Approach in seven consecutive starts, including last week at the CJ Cup, where he posted a very solid T11. In addition to his trending iron play, Smith boasts one of the best short games in the world and grades out seventh in this field in SG: Short Game. He's posted top-25 finishes in five of his last six starts and feels way too cheap here.

Brian Harman ($8,300)

Speaking of too cheap...Brian Harman feels like a he's on the clearance rack here at $8.3k. Harman managed a decent T28 last week on a Shadow Creek track that was very long. He should find Sherwood's 7,000-yard scorecard much more manageable. Harman is by no means a statistical beast, but he's very accurate off the tee (10th in the field in Fairways Gained) and has been a consistent performer over the last couple of months, posting top-15 finishes in half of his last six starts.

 

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PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - ZOZO Championship

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Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining us for the ZOZO Championship! This is a new article that we're offering each week as part of our PGA Premium subscription, and we hope that you will find it useful.

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RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

ZOZO Championship

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

We've got a new addition to the Expert Roundtable this week, as Tommy Bell has moved on from fantasy writing for the moment. We'll be joined by friend of the site, Andrew Poore (@AndrewPutters), co-host of The Turn Fantasy Golf Podcast that's available here at RotoBaller every week. Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Andrew Putters will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

 

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

  • Joe Nicely: Cameron Smith ($7.2k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sebastian Munoz ($7,200), Ryan Palmer ($7,100), Daniel Berger ($8,900), Abraham Ancer ($7,800)
  • Josh Bennett: Cameron Champ (6,800)
  • Andrew Putters: Kevin Kisner ($6.8k)

 

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

  • Joe Nicely: Collin Morikawa ($9.8k) & Webb Simpson ($9.7k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Justin Thomas ($10,600)
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas (10,600)
  • Andrew Putters: Collin Morikawa ($9.8k)

 

Who is your top GPP play?

  • Joe Nicely: Matthew Wolff ($9.1k) *DUCKS*
  • Spencer Aguiar: Collin Morikawa ($9,800)
  • Josh Bennett: Tommy Fleetwood (8,500)
  • Andrew Putters: Bubba Watson ($8.7k) - I’m predicting low ownership.

 

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

  • Joe Nicely: Russell Henley ($8.1k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Webb Simpson ($9,700), Daniel Berger ($8,900), Viktor Hovland ($9,200)
  • Josh Bennett: Matthew Wolff (9,100)
  • Andrew Putters: Abraham Ancer ($7.8k)

 

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

  • Joe Nicely: Underweight on Rory McIlroy ($10.4k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Matthew Wolff ($9,100), Bubba Watson ($8,700)
  • Josh Bennett: Tyrrell Hatton (10,000)
  • Andrew Putters: Patrick Reed ($9.6k)

 

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

  • Joe Nicely: Total Driving, SG: Approach
  • Spencer Aguiar: Ball Striking, Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage
  • Josh Bennett: SG Approach
  • Andrew Putters: Strokes Gained Approach w/ top 75 in Strokes Gained Putting

 

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

  • Joe Nicely: Mackenzie Hughes ($6.5k) - Unreliable, but can randomly pop for high finishes.
  • Spencer Aguiar: Kevin Na ($6,900)
  • Josh Bennett: Dylan Frittelli (6,300)
  • Andrew Putters: Say it ain’t so Jordan Speith ($6.9k) He is tooooo cheap. 

 

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

  • Joe Nicely: Matthew Wolff (28/1), Brian Harman & Cameron Smith (80/1)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Dallas Cowboys (+1) over the Washington Redskins - Hey, it says any type...
  • Josh Bennett: Adam Scott (45/1)
  • Andrew Putters: Justin Rose and/or Gary Woodland T10. You can get either one close to 6/1 and one of them will finish inside the T10.

 

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

  • Joe Nicely: Tiger top five
  • Spencer Aguiar: Matthew Wolff ($9,100) & Tiger Woods ($9,000) both disappoint owners with finishes outside the top-20.
  • Josh Bennett: Mikumu Horikawa finishes top 15
  • Andrew Putters: Patrick Cantlay will finish outside the T10. Therefore fade him, his recent form is not up to his level of play.

 

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

  • Joe Nicely: Webb Simpson ($9.7k) - The dude is just rock-solid in every aspect. 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Justin Thomas ($10,600) - I believe Justin Thomas wins this weekend in California, making him a must-add if we want to find success in a no-cut tournament. 
  • Josh Bennett: Collin Morikawa (9,800) - Price should probably be a little higher. Can squeeze him in with a guy like JT still. His iron play from longer distances is insane and he should crush this event
  • Andrew Putters: Collin Morikawa ($9.5k) California tournaments mean something to him.

 

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

  • Joe Nicely: Avoiding the mid-high $7k range. 
  • Spencer Aguiar: I don’t love going below $6,400. It may be a no-cut, but the value gets bad quickly. 
  • Josh Bennett: stars and Scrubs
  • Andrew Putters: Selecting the highest priced golfer that brings value to my lineup and working my way down.

 

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

  • Joe Nicely: Webb Simpson
  • Spencer Aguiar: Justin Thomas
  • Josh Bennett: Collin Morikawa (9,800)
  • Andrew Putters: Collin Morikawa ($9.5k)

 

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

 

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DraftKings Core Four (PGA DFS): ZOZO Championship (Premium Content)


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DraftKings PGA DFS Value Plays - ZOZO Championship (Premium Content)


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The Turn: Fantasy Golf Pod & Video (PGA DFS) - ZOZO Championship

Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) is joined by Andrew Poore (@AndrewPutters) to discuss the ZOZO Championship, breaking down the PGA DFS slates for daily fantasy golf contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. Scroll down to checkout the YouTube link!

Be sure to subscribe to The Turn Podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well!

Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, and every weekend morning from 6-8 am ET as well. You can also find new weekly shows on the site under RotoBaller Radio podcasts.

 

ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood

My buddy @andrewputters and I recap Jason Kokrak's first PGA Tour win at the CJ Cup. We recap what we got right (a lot!) and what we got wrong (Matthew Wolff) last week on a slate that resulted in a deep DraftKings run for Joe. The PGA Tour heads to California's Sherwood Country Club for the ZOZO Championship and the Big Cat is BACK...we share our PGA DFS strategy and favorite plays for the ZOZO in Episode 20 of The Turn. Check it out below!

 

Thanks for listening to today's episode! Be sure to tune in throughout the week, and to also follow RotoBaller on Twitter, YouTube and iTunes for the latest fantasy news and analysis.

 

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Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. In his own words, "I couldn't have done it without all the hard work the entire RotoBaller PGA team puts in each and every week."

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Webb Simpson A Strong Option At ZOZO

Webb Simpson is set to tee it up in this week's ZOZO Championship at Sherwood. Simpson posted a T13 in his most recent start at the Shriners two weeks ago. The veteran isn't the longest hitter off the tee, but continues to be a force on the PGA Tour thanks to his sharp iron play and terrific putting. This week's Jack Nicklaus-designed layout should play right into his hands and Simpson posted a top-five finish on this course in a 2013 World Challenge event. He isn't a flashy DFS play, but must be considered an elite option in this spot.

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Bubba Watson Looks To Stay Hot At ZOZO

Bubba Watson heads to the upcoming ZOZO Championship in sharp form. Watson posted an impressive T7 result in last week's CJ Cup. The mercurial lefty was second in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green with a mark of 10.9, but still struggled on the greens, losing 1.7 strokes putting. Watson's recent ball striking output has been reminiscent of his prime playing days. He's familiar with this week's Sherwood layout and posted a third-place finish on the California course in the charity World Challenge event in 2013. The veteran is an intriguing DFS option thanks to his recent form and course history.

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Rory McIlroy's Irons Still Inconsistent

The latter half of the year has been a struggle for Rory McIlroy, and those issues were once again evident last week at the CJ Cup. McIlroy was tremendous off the tee but struggled mightily with his irons, losing 3.8 strokes on approach for the tournament. It was the second time in his last three starts that he's lost strokes to the field with his irons. He'll need to fix the issue quickly as he heads to the ZOZO Championship and a Sherwood Country Club layout that can be classified as a second-shot golf course. Tournament-winning upside is always present with McIlroy, but his spotty iron play as of late lowers his DFS floor.

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Justin Rose Continues To Struggle

Justin Rose is in the field for the upcoming ZOZO Championship. Rose heads to Sherwood Country Club fresh off another disappointing outing. The Englishman posted a T52 in last week's CJ Cup and managed only one sub-70 round at Shadow Creek. His 2020 has been marked by inconsistency and some head-scratching results. Rose was once a lock-button DFS option, but those days are long gone. He's nothing more than a GPP dart throw at the ZOZO with his current shaky form.

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Harris English Quietly Logs Top-10 Finish At CJ Cup

It was a rough start for Harris English in last week's CJ Cup, as he posted an ugly 75 in the opening round at Shadow Creek. However, English battled back with three sub-70 rounds to sneak into a 10th-place finish in Las Vegas. The Georgia Bulldog had the flatstick firing and gained over four strokes putting last week. He's set to tee it up in the upcoming ZOZO Championship and this week's Sherwood Country Club layout figures to be a much better fit for his accurate style. English has been a consistent performer this year and remains a rock-solid DFS option for the ZOZO.

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Jon Rahm Set To Tackle Sherwood

Jon Rahm is in the field for the upcoming ZOZO Championship. Rahm logged a respectable T17 in last week's CJ Cup, despite losing 2.6 strokes on the greens at Shadow Creek. This week's Sherwood Country Club layout doesn't appear to suit the strengths of the Spaniard's game, but Rahm defied expectations by winning at another Jack Nicklaus-designed layout earlier this year at the Memorial. His DFS price tag is steep, but the young star has steadily turned in rock-solid performances this season and has posted two wins in 2020.

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Viktor Hovland Continues To Impress

Viktor Hovland is in the field for this week's ZOZO Championship. Hovland heads to California on the heels of an impressive T12 in last week's CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. It was his 11th top-25 finish of 2020. The youngster gained 4.8 strokes tee-to-green at Shadow Creek and his tremendous ball striking should once again make him a factor at this week's Sherwood Country Club layout. Hovland still sometimes struggles to put four rounds together, but his explosive ability makes him a high-upside option in GPP formats.

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Tyrrell Hatton Heads To ZOZO In Scorching Form

Tyrrell Hatton heads to this week's ZOZO Championship in scorching form. The Englishman won the BMW Championship in Europe two weeks ago and followed the victory with a T3 in last week's CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. We can attribute Hatton's success to his razor-sharp iron play. He led last week's field in strokes gained approach, gaining a massive 9.2 strokes with his irons. This week's Jack Nicklaus-designed Sherwood layout should be a tremendous fit for Hatton's precise style. He's an elite DFS option due to his current form and the projected course fit.

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Tiger Woods Comes Out Of Hibernation To Defend ZOZO Title

We last saw Tiger Woods over a month ago in a missed cut at the U.S. Open. Woods will come out of hibernation this week to defend his ZOZO Championship title. This event has been relocated from Japan to Sherwood Country Club due to the global pandemic. Woods has won five times on the California layout and hosted his World Challenge charity event on the course from 2000 to 2013. We haven't seen many positives from the legend in 2020, but he's in serious DFS consideration this week due to his track record at Sherwood.

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Matthew Wolff Looks To Rebound At Sherwood

Matthew Wolff looks to rebound from a shockingly bad performance at the CJ Cup this week at the ZOZO Championship. Wolff shot an opening-round 80 at Shadow Creek and never recovered, finishing in 73rd place in the 78-man field. The 21-year-old grew up just seven miles from this week's host course, Sherwood Country Club, so this does provide an intriguing bounce-back spot. Many DFS players were burned by the young bomber's dud last week, though going right back to Wolff might be a sharp move in GPP formats.

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Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood

Hello PGA DFS family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! The always-talented, but previously-winless Jason Kokrak notched the first PGA Tour victory of his career at the CJ Cup. Kokrak's putter was white-hot, which enabled him to outlast Xander Schauffele and Russell Henley at Shadow Creek.

It was a weird week for HFTC, as some of our highlighted players - Xander Schauffle and Russell Henley - were in the mix to win the CJ Cup, while we had rough luck with a Dustin Johnson WD and a bizarrely-bad performance from Matthew Wolff! We go from one unknown course to another, as the ZOZO Championship has been relocated to Sherwood Country Club this year due to COVID-19. Calling Sherwood an "unknown" isn't really accurate, as it played host to Tiger Woods' Hero Challenge for over a decade, though we haven't seen the layout on the PGA Tour schedule since 2013.

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

 

ZOZO Championship @ Sherwood Overview

Like last week's CJ Cup, the ZOZO Championship is part of the PGA Tour's usual "Asia Swing", but has been relocated to the U.S. this year due to COVID-19. Also like last week, we'll be dealing with a limited - and rather elite - field of 78 players in a no-cut format.

The big news is that defending ZOZO champion, Tiger Woods, is coming out of hibernation this week. Woods has not looked sharp in his limited 2020 starts, but will be teeing it up on a Sherwood Country Club layout on which he held his annual Hero Challenge charity event from 2000 to 2013 (Tiger won five of those). He'll be joined by several elite holdovers from last week's CJ Cup, including Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Rory McIlroy. Dustin Johnson is also expected to return to action following a positive COVID-19 test last week and will also be joined by several of Japan's rising stars that are playing on ZOZO sponsor's exemptions.

While we don't have any recent course history to chew through, we'll look back at some results from the Hero Challenge at Sherwood and try our best to find some players with a nice course fit.

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

The Course: Sherwood Country Club

Par 72 - 7,006 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Jack Nicklaus

Sherwood Country Club is a beautiful Jack Nicklaus layout that contains both breathtaking views and difficult decisions for the players. It's a strategic golf course with several risk/reward holes, including the drivable Par-4 opener and FIVE Par-5s that can be played either aggressively or conservatively. In true Nicklaus fashion, this is a layout that places emphasis on position off the tee and requires a precise second shot. The length will be no problem for the players in this week's field, but Nicklaus' routing - that includes multiple doglegs - will prevent an all-out "Bomb & Gauge" assault. We already mentioned the layouts unique number of Par-5s (five) and Sherwood will also throw five Par-3s at this field...which will force me to weight both Par-5 and Par-3 scoring fairly heavily. Like last week, players will face Bentgrass green surfaces.

Despite Sherwood's lack of length on the scorecard, I look for it to provide a fairly stern test for the field. I'll be leaning accuracy and total driving over sheer distance when considering off the tee stats, while attempting to target sharp ball strikers with hot irons. I never give too much weight to putting, but I'll glance at splits on Bent, while also sneaking a peek at scrambling/bogey avoidance.

 

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

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The Horse

Webb Simpson

DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel:
 $11,300
Notable Course History: World Challenge - T5 ('13), T7 ('12), T13 ('11)

In golf’s modern era of mind-blowing distance and power, Webb Simpson is something of a throwback. Luckily for us, there are still a few stops left on the PGA Tour schedule that reward accuracy and precision over sheer distance and I believe that Sherwood will prove to be that type of venue this week. 

Simpson’s game is certainly one of substance over style and it’s pretty tough to argue with his results over the last few years, as Webb has amassed three wins and has remarkably missed just six cuts in 63 starts since the 2018 season. 

While his game isn’t one we want to target on every course (though we basically could), we have to believe that Sherwood CC is a perfect fit for his game. Simpson posted top-seven finishes over the last two years that Tiger’s Hero event was held on this course. He ranks 15th in this field in Fairways Gained and first in Scrambling over recent rounds, attributes that put him in great position to succeed this week.

 

The Ponies

Matthew Wolff

DraftKings: $9,100
FanDuel: $10,200

Notable Course History: N/A

I’m sure a lot of you guys are like me and almost get sick just at the mention of Matthew Wolff’s name. I was heavily invested in the 21-year-old last week at the CJ Cup and was absolutely shocked when Wolff fired an opening-round 80 at Shadow Creek. Things didn’t get any better throughout the week, as he struggled to get anything going en route to an almost-DFL finish. 

Perhaps an overlooked aspect of DFS is being able to put our emotions aside in order to make the best decisions. My anger is telling me, “SCREW WOLFF!”, but my mind tells me that this is an intriguing bounce-back spot for a couple reasons. We can expect the youngster’s ownership to plummet after he torched so many lineups as a chalky play last week. I also really love the “course history” angle that’s in play with Wolff and Sherwood Country Club. He grew up about seven miles from the course and has played it “1,000’s of times” (Wolff’s words) with friends over the years. 

Now, that course knowledge obviously won’t be worth a dime if Wolff hits the ball like he did last week, BUT we’ve often talked about how his unorthodox swing makes him prone to volatility. So, while things could continue to be ugly, there’s also a very real chance that the cat that finished second in both the U.S. Open and the Shriners shows back up this week.

Tiger Woods

DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $10,300
Notable Course History: Hero Challenge - Five-time winner

This is a course-history-based column, so while we might not mention Tiger Woods based on his recent form, he definitely deserves consideration due to his monster track record at Sherwood Country Club.

Woods is the defending ZOZO champion and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he had some input as to where this tournament would be held when it was decided to relocate it to the U.S. due to COVID-19. Sherwood is a dream spot for him...he hosted his annual Hero Challenge charity event on this course from 2000 thru 2013, and won on this layout five times over those years, compiling a scoring average of 68.46 (by far the best mark in this week’s field) over 48 competitive rounds. It plays to all his strengths...shot placement, precision iron play, and strategic thinking. So, while we haven’t seen any recent sparks from Tiger, we know that this course is a perfect fit and we also know that he should be gearing his game up in preparation for the upcoming Masters.

 

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Bubba Watson

DraftKings: $8,700
FanDuel: $9,900
Notable Course History: World Challenge - T3 ('13), T9 ('12), T6 ('11)

Last week on my podcast The Turn (you should subscribe, we’ve been KILLING it since the restart) we spent a good chunk of time talking about Bubba Watson and why he was such an intriguing option at Shadow Creek. Bubba paid off our intuition, knocking out a nice T7 in the CJ Cup. 

I’m on him again this week, as he’s not only demonstrated unbelievably-good form as of late, but also has some history at Sherwood. In the last three Hero Challenge events that were held at Sherwood, Watson went: T3-T9-T6. He comes into this week’s ZOZO not only armed with that course knowledge, but also in fire form from tee to green. Watson leads this week’s field in both Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Ball Striking over recent rounds, while grading out second in SG: OTT and third in SG: Approach.  He gained 10.9 strokes T2G at the CJ Cup (second in the field) and recorded a T7 despite losing 1.7 strokes putting. Obviously, we’re hoping for a warmer putter this week, but Watson is an absolute ball-striking beast at the moment.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 6

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. It was a really nice slate for us in Week 5, especially at the WR position, as our highlighted players CeeDee Lamb, Robby Anderson, and Darius Slayton all killed it for us, while our sneaky pick of Teddy Bridgewater at QB also paid dividends. Of course not everything worked out, as Dak Prescott left early with a season-ending injury and our attempt to gain some floor at TE with George Kittle failed miserably. That's how it goes in NFL DFS kids. Week 6 is shaping up to be an interesting - though perhaps frustrating - slate. As I write this, the juiciest matchup of the week - ATL vs MIN - is facing the possibility of being delayed due to COVID-19 concerns! As a result, I'll leave Falcons and Vikings players out of this week's column, but will circle back around to that matchup in the Saturday Updates section, when we'll (hopefully) know more about the status of that game. Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks

Matthew Stafford - DET @ JAX ($6,300)

What a difference a week makes! We go from a plethora of options in Week 5, to very few legitimate ones in Week 6. There are several elite QBs available on this slate, but the problem lies in their matchups, as none of the available spots scream out as true slam-dunk situations.

One matchup that is juicy is Matt Stafford squaring off against the Jags. The Jacksonville organization is pathetic in several areas, but defending the pass has proven to be their most glaring weakness on the field this season. The Jags defense ranks dead last in the NFL in Yards Per Attempt (8.83), and stand 28th in the league in both passing yards and TDs allowed.

Stafford has yet to post a true "spike" game, but there are signs that it's coming. The Lions signal caller's Average Target Depth is 10.0 yards, which trails only Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins among QBs that have started every game for their team. He's also been boosted by the return of his top WR, Kenny Golladay, who has injected this Detroit offense with some life after missing the first two games of the season. The expected game environment is juicy, with both a tight point spread (DET -3.5) and high point total (54.0).

*SATURDAY UPDATE: A weird week at the QB position, as for the first time this season I find myself actually looking to pay down. With the ATL vs MIN game appearing set to go after some COVID concerns earlier in the week (we'll touch on several plays from this matchup), Kirk Cousins ($6.1k) immediately pops into consideration against an ATL defense that has allowed the most DK points in the NFL to the QB position. Taking Week 1 out of the equation, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5.9k) is averaging 27.35 DK points over Miami's last four games and he squares off against a Jets secondary that is allowing 8.25 yards per attempt. Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill ($5.9k) continues to be relentlessly efficient and posted 30 DK points on just 28 attempts Tuesday night against Buffalo. The price is right...with volume being the only concern in a matchup against the Texans that figures to be a "ride Derrick Henry" game for Tennessee.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 6 Picks

Derrick Henry - HOU @ TEN ($7,300)

While there are very few slam-dunk spots at the QB position, there are some juicy matchups available for RBs this week. Tennessee's Derrick Henry has a dream "usage + matchup" situation against the Houston Texans. Henry has received a massive 101 carries this season, which ranks second in the NFL behind Josh Jacobs' 105 in total carries, despite the Titans only playing four games. His eye-popping carry per game average of 25.25 leads the league, while his 28 Red Zone rushing attempts is also atop the NFL.

Henry hasn't exactly been ultra-efficient - his average of 3.7 yards per carry is pretty pedestrian - but he should find some easy sledding this week against a Texans Defense that has allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (706) and is relinquishing a massive 5.19 yards per carry to the RB position - the fourth-highest average in the league.

James Robinson - DET @ JAX ($6,800)

We touched on this DET vs JAX matchup at the QB position with Matthew Stafford and James Robinson presents us with an opportunity to grab another piece of exposure in this game. The Lions have been brutally-bad against the run. Detroit has allowed an average of 32.8 DK points per game to opposing runners and is relinquishing a staggering 5.57 yards per carry on the ground, a mark that tied for worst in the league.

Robinson underwhelmed last week, posting just 11.0 DK points against Houston. However, his usage remained encouraging, as he toted the rock 13 times and was targeted seven times in the pass game. Volume is king in DFS and Robinson has now touched the ball 17 or more times in all five of Jacksonville's game this season. This matchup against Detroit is a juicy rebound spot.

Ronald Jones II - GB @ TB ($6,000)

Do any of you guys wanna join the #FreeRonaldJones campaign with me? Jones II is a talented back that has finally been given a chance to shine thanks to Leonard Fournette's absence and Tampa's banged-up receiving corps. He's made the most of the opportunity, rushing for over 100 yards in each of the Bucs' last two games, while also corralling nine of 14 targets. We're hoping that Jones II has worked his way into Bruce Arians' good graces with his performances over the last couple of weeks and that an expected-to-return Fournette will just be a footnote in this offense, as Green Bay offers a surprisingly good matchup. The Packers are allowing a very chunky 4.76 yards per carry to the RB position, and rank 31st in the NFL in both catch % and yards per target allowed to RBs.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Lots to unpack here at RB...we love Aaron Jones' ($7.6k) talent, but the matchup against Tampa Bay presents his biggest challenge to date. Alexander Mattison ($7.2k) feels like one of the larger decisions on this slate. With pricing delayed due to the Tuesday night game, DKings was able to adjust his price, which means we (thankfully) won't see a 70%-owned-$5k Mattison. He'll step right in to Dalvin's Cook role in a dreamy matchup against an ATL defense that's relinquishing nearly 140 total yards per game to the RB position. With some very good options available at RB this week, I'll neither be "all in" or "all out" on Mattison, but will definitely grab some exposure in this smash spot, while the RB on the other side of this matchup, Todd Gurley II ($6.3K), presents a unique pivot opportunity against a Vikes defense that allowed 561 yards on the ground this season. Carolina's Mike Davis ($7.0k) continues to produce "CMC Lite" numbers thanks to his huge role in this Panthers offense. The matchup against Chicago isn't great this week, but the volume/production is hard to ignore. On the other side of CHI vs CAR, David Montgomery ($5.8k) might not actually be good at football, but he's getting all the work he can handle out of the Bears backfield in the absence of Tarik Cohen and will square off against a Panthers Defense that is dead last in the NFL in DK points allowed the the RB position. Two strong standouts in the mid-$5k range are Antonio Gibson ($5.5k) and Myles Gaskin ($5.4k), players whose price tags don't really reflect the amount of volume they are consistently receiving in their respective offenses. With Denver's Melvin Gordon ($6.0k) now officially ruled "Out", Phillip Lindsay ($4.3k) becomes the most intriguing salary saver at the position.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks

DeVante Parker - NYJ @ MIA ($6,300)

The ATL vs MIN is a treasure trove at the WR position, but since we're in wait-and-see mode on that game, we'll slide down the salary scale to Miami's DeVante Parker at $6.3k. Parker hasn't been the target monster that he was last season, but he's proven himself to be extremely efficient this year by posting double-digit DK output in each of Miami's last four games. He turned three targets into 50 yards and a TD last week against the Niners and recorded 10 catches for 110 yards on 12 targets in Week 4 against Seattle. We can consider Parker's target counts of the last two weeks outliers and I expect him to fall somewhere in the middle against the Jets. New York's Pierre Desir has little chance of slowing down Parker and this surprisingly-good Dolphins air attack. The Jets Defense ranks last in the league in allowed catch % to the WR position (71.9%) and stands 30th in the NFL in yards per target (9.88).

Kenny Golladay - DET @ JAX ($6,200)

We've already touched on Matt Stafford and James Robinson in this matchup. You can toss Kenny Golladay in the mix to complete a nice little game stack. Golladay missed the first two games of the year with a hamstring injury, but he's been productive since returning in Week 3, snagging 10 of 15 targets for 109 yards and 2 TDs in over two games. He'll square off against a Jags secondary that's been routinely gashed this season and is coming off allowing an 8/161/1 torch job to Brandin Cooks last week. Jacksonville is relinquishing nearly nine yards per target to opposing wideouts and will throw barely-drafted rookie Chris Claybrooks at Golladay in this game.

Tee Higgins - CIN @ IND ($4,700)

Obviously, we want to look for terrific matchups when constructing DFS rosters, but sometimes - especially when trying to take down a GPP - we must be willing to consider a player that's in perhaps a less-than-plus matchup due to talent, price, or usage. In Bengals rookie WR Tee Higgins, we find all three of those. Higgins has developed rapidly at the pro level and despite being targeted 30 (!) times over Cincy's last four games, his DK salary has remained frozen in this $4.5-5k price range (his price has actually decreased $200 from last week!). The volume is hard to ignore, but more importantly, Higgins is receiving quality targets. He has a healthy aDOT of 14.0 and has accounted for 25.2% of the Bengals' Air Yards this season. This Colts Defense isn't one we want to go out of our way to target, but second-year CB Rock Ya-Sin's 57.7 PFF Grade isn't enough to scare me off the cheap upside that Higgins brings to the table.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: With ATL vs MIN set to go, receivers in this matchup jump to the top of our Week 6 target list...Calvin Ridley ($7.8k) is perhaps better with Julio Jones ($6.7k) in the lineup, while both Adam Thielen ($7.3k) and Justin Jefferson ($6.0k) draw a dream matchup against a Falcons secondary that has succeeded in stopping NO ONE this season and is 31st in the NFL in yards per target allowed to the WR position. Philly funnels offenses to the air, which should put the explosive, yet inconsistent, Marquise Brown ($6.5k) on our GPP radars. The Jets offense is gross, but Jamison Crowder ($6.1k) has been a true standout, breaking the 20-DK point mark every time he's suited up this season. Both Terry McLaurin ($5.7k) and A.J. Brown ($5.6k) are high-upside options, especially at this price point. D.J. Chark's availability might not be known until Sunday morning, but if he can't go, Laviska Shenault ($5.2k) would immediately jump into my player pool. Chase Claypool ($5.2k) broke the slate last week, but I'm not scared to go right back to the well with Diontae Johnson now ruled out for Week 6. The same can be said for Houston's Brandin Cooks ($5.0k), who gets another winnable matchup against the Titans on the heels of a monster performance in Week 5.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks

Mark Andrews - BAL @ PHI ($6,500)

Mark Andrews' fantasy production has generally depended on his unbelievable efficiency. However, Andrews heads into Week 6 on the heels of his highest-volume game of the season last week against the Bengals. The Ravens stud TE was targeted nine times against Cincy, posting a rock-solid 6/56/1 stat line. Volume is the largest concern with the talented Andrews (he was only targeted three times in Week 4), but we have to feel confident that the opportunities will be there this week against Philly's true funnel defense. The Eagles are allowing just 3.35 yards per carry on the ground, which routinely forces opponents to the air. Opposing pass attacks have found success with TEs against Philly, as the Eagles have allowed the highest completion rate (86.5%) in the NFL to the position.

Jonnu Smith - HOU @ TEN ($5,200)

It seems like forever since we had a chance to roster Jonnu Smith on the Main Slate. I'm jumping at the opportunity to get the Titans TE back in my lineups this week. The matchup is neutral-at- best, with Houston ranking middle of the pack statistically against the TE position, but I'm willing to bet on Smith's elite volume (6.75 targets per game) and eye-opening athletic ability (12.3 yards per catch) at this palatable price tag.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: The TE position is a wasteland this week from my perspective and I will be leaning heavily on the two players highlighted in this week's original writeup.



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Daily Fantasy Golf FanDuel Picks (PGA DFS) - CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

Hello RotoBaller PGA family! Veteran Martin Laird held off Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook last week to win the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open for the second time in his career.

We stay in Las Vegas this week, but the CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek certainly has a different vibe than the Shriners. It's an elite, limited field that will be teeing it up at legendary Shadow Creek Golf Course. With a no-cut format and zero course history to evaluate, this will be an interesting PGA DFS week. In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the CJ Cup. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options.

Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek - PGA DFS Overview

Shadow Creek Golf Course

7,527 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Bent - Designer: Tom Fazio

Shadow Creek is legendary. A spare-no-expense project of Las Vegas billionaire Steve Wynn to lure high rollers into town, Shadow Creek is what it would look like if you could pick up and move a lush Georgia golf course and then plop it right down in the middle of the Nevada desert. We can expect beautiful and pristine conditions this week. Considered one of America's best golf courses, this Tom Fazio layout is shrouded in mystery. A longtime home for Vegas' resident high rollers and visiting celebrities, Shadow Creek is a tough nut to crack when trying to determine how the best players in the world will fare.

Now owned by MGM resorts, the course was renovated by Fazio in 2008 and lengthened to a more-modern 7,500-plus yards. Since the redesign, Dustin Johnson holds the course record at 66, which is kind of incredible considering the number of pros that routinely play here. If we adhere to the legend that Shadow Creek is unbelievably tough, we would want to target "grinders" this week. However, with the course playing at this yardage - and with four Par-5s on the scorecard that will probably only be reachable by the longest players in the field - we must also consider those with plenty of distance to their game. Anytime we're dealing with an unfamiliar layout, I tend to fall back towards leaning on overall Tee to Green ability as my default "go to" stat. That will once again be the case for me this week and I'll also give a bump to distance, as well as players that have traditionally been successful at major championship venues and/or "tough" golf courses. You can also glance at putting splits on Bent if you give much weight to putting.

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Shadow Creek Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Par 5: Birdies or Better Gained
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Putting (Bent)
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.

High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players 

Dustin Johnson ($12,000) *W/D - PIVOT TO JUSTIN THOMAS*

No hesitation with going straight to the top of the salary scale with Dustin Johnson this week. I expect DJ to get a lot attention in the DFS industry this week. With such little to go on as it pertains to Shadow Creek, Johnson holding the course record is at least something tangible. Even without that nugget, I would be all over DJ in this spot, as he's basically "course proof". He's the guy I always want on long, tough layouts. Johnson frustratingly only has one major championship, but his track record in golf's biggest events is pristine, as he's posted six top-10s in majors since winning the U.S. Open in 2016. We also know that DJ slays it in elite, limited-field events, as he has six career WGC victories. Johnson leads this CJ Cup field in SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, and Approach over the last 24 rounds.

Jon Rahm ($11,900)

Jon Rahm is kind of a "Next Gen" DJ in that he's basically "course proof" at this point. We've seen the Spaniard win on two of the PGA Tour's toughest stops recently with victories at Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields, so if we expect Shadow Creek to play difficult, Rahm has the ability to grind it out due to his length and surprisingly-sharp touch around the greens. We know that the course will play long this week, which is right in his wheelhouse. Rahm ranks third in the field in Driving Distance over recent rounds and also pops in at sixth in Good Drives Gained.

Xander Schauffele ($11,500)

Whenever "plays well on hard golf courses" is a focus for me, Xander Schauffele immediately pops on my radar. Schauffele is a player that I've relentlessly targeted in majors over the past couple of years and he's responded with fabulous performances on golf's toughest stages by posting a ridiculous seven top-10s in 13 major starts since 2017.

The California native is making his first start since another impressive outing at a major championship, a fifth-place finish in the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. It was just the latest in a long streak of quality outings for Schauffele. Since the PGA Tour's restart, he's made 11 of 11 cuts with 10 top-25s! Those results have came on many layouts that we can consider "difficult",  like the aforementioned Winged Foot, East Lake, Olympia Fields, TPC Harding Park, and Muirfield Village. I don't have any knowledge of Xander's familiarity level with Shadow Creek, but it's a good bet that the tougher it plays, the better it is for his prospects this week.

Matthew Wolff ($11,200)

Matthew Wolf was highlighted in this article last week, but I'm going right back to the well with the young bomber. Wolff came up just short in a sudden-death playoff at the Shriners, but it was after overcoming a "sluggish" opening-round 68 to shoot 66-61(!)-66 over his last three rounds at TPC Summerlin. The dude is perhaps the most explosive player in the game at the moment and - while we don't expect super-low scoring at Shadow Creek this week - the 21-year-old has demonstrated the ability to take it deep on even the toughest of layouts, dropping rounds of 65 at both Winged Foot and TPC Harding Park over the last couple of months.

Tony Finau ($10,600) *W/D - PIVOT TO HIDEKI MATSUYAMA*

Really love Tony here, with my only concern being any lingering effects from his positive COVID-19 test of a week ago. It's something I'll monitor as the week progresses and hopefully we can get some reports as to just how serious it was for him. Strictly talking golf, Finau appears to be a tremendous fit on paper. His major championship track record is impeccable and he always pops for me on these types of long layouts. He handles long Par-4s with ease and is one of the players in the field that should be able to take advantage of these stretched-out Par-5s.

 

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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Viktor Hovland ($10,100)

In the absence of concrete stats from the week's golf course, I'm gonna lean on tee-to-green ability and ball striking. My guy V-Hova checks those boxes in neon Sharpie. The youngster is a player that I'm quickly learning to target on long, difficult layouts. After coming out of the restart blazing, it seemed like Hovland it a bit of a wall, as his normally-excellent ball striking became a bit spotty for about a month. However, the youngster looked recharged at Winged Foot, gaining 8.5 strokes T2G and 4.3 on Approach en route to a T13...his second finish inside the top-13 in two career U.S. Open starts. The short game is always the concern with Hovland, but he's actually gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts and Bent is statistically his best surface.

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,700)

As we move into what we normally consider the "mid range", there's honestly not a lot that I'm crazy about, as I find myself more interested in taking a "Stars & Scrubs"-type of approach in this no-cut event. One of the players that does stick out at this price point is Louis Oosthuizen. Oosthuizen's classic swing is something that I'll trust on just about any type of layout. Oosty not only has a history of playing very well on major-championship golf courses, but he's also been in razor-sharp form, posting top-25 finishes in five of his last six starts while gaining strokes T2G in each. As the course difficulty gets cranked up, so does the South African's average strokes gained per round. Oosthuizen averages gaining .82 strokes per round on "Difficult" courses, versus marks of .61 and .53 on layouts classified as "Average" and "Easy".

Sergio Garcia ($9,500)

I probably won't personally play Sergio Garcia (there's bad history there), but I can understand the thought process behind rostering the Spaniard. Similar to Louis Oosthuizen, Garcia is a veteran that has seen every type of golf course in the world and can handle pretty much any layout that you throw at him thanks to his historically-good tee-to-green ability. Most of the buzz surrounding Sergio's win at Sanderson Farms was on his unique "putting with his eyes closed" routine on the greens, but his recent ball striking shouldn't be overlooked. He gained a massive seven strokes on Approach in Jackson (+12 T2G) and follow the victory up with another strong iron demonstration last week at the Shriners, where he gained just over four strokes on Approach.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,800)

Niemann is an elite, young ball striker that I've started targeting on long, tough layouts. He popped up for a near-win in the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields at the end of August, eventually finishing in third place. Niemann followed that outing up with a top-25 finish at Winged Foot and he sufficiently knocked the rust off with a T13 last week at the Shriners. Tee to green, the Chilean is as talented as perhaps anyone on the PGA Tour, but his downfall often comes with the flat stick. The silver lining is that Niemann's only positive putting splits come on Bentgrass greens, which is what he'll be dealing with this week at Shadow Creek.

 

Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players

Russell Henley ($8,500)

I'm really digging the "low" end of the salary scale this week and we'll kick things off with Russell Henley. Henley is a player that I was invested in heavily last week and he posted a ho-hum T27 at the Shriners thanks to losing over a stroke putting for the week. However, I'm willing to reload with him this week on a Shadow Creek layout that we expect to demand great tee-to-green performances from the players in this field. The Georgia Bulldog has been on a ball striking tear and has gained strokes with his irons in eight straight starts, which has resulted in three top-10s since July.

Jason Kokrak ($8,500)

Some may see Jason Kokrak's missed cut at the Shriners last week and run the other way. I'm willing to bet on a Kokrak rebound though, as the guy didn't play bad at Summerlin in his first start since the U.S. Open, falling short of the weekend despite a pair of 68's. Shadow Creek should be a better fit for him, as he routinely brings his best game at "big ballparks". Kokrak ranks 14th in the field in Driving Distance, while standing 25th in Good Drives Gained.

Bubba Watson ($8,400)

Bubba Watson is a player that I usually only give serious DFS consideration to on a handful of select layouts (Augusta, Riviera, River Highlands), but I'm intrigued by some seeming similarities between Shadow Creek and Augusta National, as both are tree lined with sprawling, slopey Bentgrass greens. In addition to that narrative based line of thinking, Watson has been striking the ball beautifully as of late, but just hasn't been able to putt it into the ocean. He's gained strokes T2G in each of his last seven starts, including a very impressive performance with his irons at Winged Foot, where he gained just over six strokes on Approach. This one makes my stomach a little queasy, but I'm willing to take the risk in this no-cut event.

Cameron Smith ($8,100)

Like the aforementioned Bubba, Cameron Smith is a guy that I rarely roster. However, I was on Smith last week at the Shriners a bit and I'm willing to go back to him for the CJ Cup. Smith's short game is one of the best in the world, but he's often undone by spotty ball striking. The Aussie has settled into a nice groove with his irons as of late. He gained 2.8 strokes on Approach last week at the Shriners, which was his sixth straight start with positive Approach numbers. Also, in a nugget that's totally devoid of statistical reasoning, Smith has always been in beast mode during the month of October for some reason.

 

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Brendan Steele An Interesting Value Option At CJ Cup

Brendan Steele will attempt to get back on track at the CJ Cup after missing the cut in last week's Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. Despite rounds of 67 and 69 at TPC Summerlin, Steele failed to make the weekend for the first time since June. The veteran's consistent results can be attributed to his steady iron play. He's impressively gained strokes on approach in eight consecutive starts. In addition to the fancy blade work, his distance will be an advantage this week on a very long Shadow Creek layout. Steele profiles as an excellent value option in DFS tournaments.

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Joaquin Niemann Looks To Stay Hot In Vegas

Joaquin Niemann is set to play in the upcoming CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. Niemann comes in fresh off a solid T13 performance in last week's Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. It was the youngster's third top-25 result in his last four starts. His sharp ball-striking ability should give him a leg up on the field this week on a Shadow Creek course that's expected to be difficult. The concern with Niemann is his shaky putting, though there's been some recent improvement in that area, as he's gained strokes on the greens in each of his last two starts. His legitimate tournament-winning upside makes him one of the most intriguing value plays on the slate.

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CJ Cup Provides A Rebound Spot For Jason Kokrak

Jason Kokrak failed to make the cut last week despite posting two rounds of 68 in the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. It was his first missed cut in two months. Kokrak has a great chance to rebound in the upcoming CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. The lengthy Vegas layout is a much better fit for his game than last week's birdie-friendly TPC Summerlin track. The veteran ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in driving distance last season and has historically played well on long golf courses. He's a sharp GPP option this week.

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Cameron Smith Finding Consistency With His Irons

Cameron Smith heads to this week's CJ Cup on a roll. Smith has made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with top-25 finishes in three of his last four starts. The Aussie's strong results can be linked to his newfound consistency with his irons. While usually spotty with the blades, Smith has managed to gain strokes on approach the last six times he's teed it up. The 27-year-old will look to keep the great results coming this week at Shadow Creek and he's a sneaky-good value across the DFS industry.

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Shadow Creek Provides A Lengthy Challenge For Kevin Na

Shadow Creek Golf Course will host its first PGA Tour event this week. There are lots of unknowns surrounding the legendary Las Vegas layout, but we do know that it will play very long and cards out at over 7,500 yards. Kevin Na ranks just 71st in this CJ Cup field in driving distance and will have a hard time dealing with the length of this week's layout. Na is a player that should be targeted on shorter courses that require precision. The veteran's distance deficiency makes him a very risky DFS play at Shadow Creek.

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DraftKings Core Four (PGA DFS): CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek (Premium Content)


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Horse For The Course: PGA DFS - The CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

Hello PGA DFS family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! It was a "Marty Party" in Las Vegas, as veteran journeyman Martin Laired emerged victorious from the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open for the second time in his career (#CourseHistoryMatters), fighting off Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook in a sudden-death playoff.

It was a big week for HFTC, as lots of our highlighted players (Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, and Matthew Wolff) were in the mix to win the Shriners! We go from a TPC Summerlin course where we had tons of history to dissect, to a mysterious Shadow Creek layout for which we have none. This is gonna be an interesting week...

Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!

 

CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek Overview

Last week's Shriners field was incredibly strong, especially for a Swing Season event, but it doesn't hold a candle to the elite players that will tee it up in this week's CJ Cup. Guaranteed money and no cut will do that, as only 78 players will tee it up this week. Normally held at Nine Bridges in Korea, this year's CJ Cup was moved due to COVID-19. Players will convene at legendary Las Vegas layout Shadow Creek, a club that is shrouded in mystery and somewhat mythic status in the golf (and gambling) community. Long camera shy, Shadow Creek hosted The Match between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson a couple of years ago, but other than that debacle, we've never seen the ultra-private course featured on TV.

Obviously, this situation throws a big monkey wrench in the traditional course history angle that we take in this column each week. So, we'll use this space to discuss some players, the course, and DFS strategy. Sound cool? Ok, let's tee this thing up!

You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

The Course: Shadow Creek Golf Course

Par 72 - 7,527 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Tom Fazio (Fazio Renovation in 2008)

Shadow Creek is legendary. A spare-no-expense project of Las Vegas billionaire Steve Wynn to lure high rollers into town, Shadow Creek is what it would look like if you could pick up and move a lush Georgia golf course and then plop it right down in the middle of the Nevada desert. We can expect beautiful and pristine conditions this week. Considered one of America's best golf courses, this Tom Fazio layout is shrouded in mystery. A longtime home for Vegas' resident high rollers and visiting celebrities, Shadow Creek is a tough nut to crack when trying to determine how the best players in the world will fare.

Now owned by MGM resorts, the course was renovated by Fazio in 2008 and lengthened to a more-modern 7,500-plus yards. Since the redesign, Dustin Johnson holds the course record at 66, which is kind of incredible considering the number of pros that routinely play here. If we adhere to the legend that Shadow Creek is unbelievably tough, we would want to target "grinders" this week. However, with the course playing at this yardage - and with four Par-5s on the scorecard that will probably only be reachable by the longest players in the field - we must also consider those with plenty of distance to their game. Anytime we're dealing with an unfamiliar layout, I tend to fall back towards leaning on overall Tee to Green ability as my default "go to" stat. That will once again be the case for me this week and I'll also give a bump to distance, as well as players that have traditionally been successful at major championship venues and/or "tough" golf courses. You can also glance at putting splits on Bent if you give much weight to putting.

 

Recent Champions & Winning Scores

  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A

 

The Horse

Dustin Johnson

*UPDATE: W/D DUE TO TESTING POSITIVE FOR COVID-19*

DraftKings: $11,100
FanDuel:
 $12,000
Notable Course History: N/A

I expect DJ to get a lot attention in the DFS industry this week. With such little to go on as it pertains to Shadow Creek, Johnson holding the course record is at least something tangible. Even without that nugget, I would be all over DJ in this spot, as he's basically "course proof". He's the guy I always want on long, tough layouts. Johnson frustratingly only has one major championship, but his track record in golf's biggest events is pristine, as he's posted six top-10s in majors since winning the U.S. Open in 2016. We also know that DJ slays it in elite, limited-field events, as he has six career WGC victories.

He's a statistical beast and ranks first in this CJ Cup field in SG: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, and Approach over the last 24 rounds. Johnson has won twice since the restart (three times if you wanna count the TOUR Championship), and posted strong finishes in both the PGA Championship (T2) and the U.S. Open (T6). The only reason I can think of to completely fade DJ this week is that things all line up almost too perfectly, which will elevate his ownership to very high levels.

 

The Ponies

Xander Schauffele

DraftKings: $10,300
FanDuel: $11,500

Notable Course History: N/A

Whenever "plays well on hard golf courses" is a focus for me, Xander Schauffele immediately pops on my radar. Schauffele is a player that I've relentlessly targeted in majors over the past couple of years and he's responded with fabulous performances on golf's toughest stages by posting a ridiculous seven top-10s in 13 major starts since 2017.

The California native is making his first start since another impressive outing at a major championship, a fifth-place finish in the U.S. Open at Winged Foot. It was just the latest in a long streak of quality outings for Schauffele. Since the PGA Tour's restart, he's made 11 of 11 cuts with 10 top-25s! Those results have came on many layouts that we can consider "difficult",  like the aforementioned Winged Foot, East Lake, Olympia Fields, TPC Harding Park, and Muirfield Village. I don't have any knowledge of Xander's familiarity level with Shadow Creek, but it's a good bet that the tougher it plays, the better it is for his prospects this week.

Finally, we must also take into account the "Nagels Bagels Rule", which says that Xander always performs exponentially better in no-cut events. (Sorry buddy, I had to do it!)

Matthew Wolff

DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $11,200
Notable Course History: N/A

Matthew Wolf was highlighted in this article last week, but I'm going right back to the well with the young bomber. Wolff came up just short in a sudden-death playoff at the Shriners, but it was after overcoming a "sluggish" opening-round 68 to shoot 66-61(!)-66 over his last three rounds at TPC Summerlin. The dude is perhaps the most explosive player in the game at the moment and - while we don't expect super-low scoring at Shadow Creek this week - the 21-year-old has demonstrated the ability to take it deep on even the toughest of layouts, dropping rounds of 65 in at both Winged Foot and TPC Harding Park over the last couple of months.

We know Wolff is a bomber (trails only Cam Champ in this week's field in Driving Distance), which will put Shadow Creek's driveable Par-4 and all four Par-5s in play for him this week, but he's also thriving in other facets. He gained over SIX strokes on Approach in the Shriners last week and finished T4 in Scrambling %. He's playing with what seems like an almost immeasurable level of confidence at the moment and it feels like a win is coming soon.

 

 

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Viktor Hovland

DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $10,100
Notable Course History: N/A

As I mentioned in the course preview, in the absence of concrete stats from the week's golf course, I'm always gonna lean on tee-to-green ability and ball striking. My guy V-Hova checks those boxes in neon Sharpie. The youngster is a player that I'm quickly learning to target on long, difficult layouts. After coming out of the restart blazing, it seemed like Hovland it a bit of a wall, as his normally-excellent ball striking became a bit spotty for about a month. However, the youngster looked recharged at Winged Foot, gaining 8.5 strokes T2G and 4.3 on Approach en route to a T13...his second finish inside the top-13 in two career U.S. Open starts. The short game is always the concern with Hovland, but he's actually gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts and Bent is statistically his best surface.

Louis Oosthuizen

DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $9,700
Notable Course History: N/A

While his game is pretty much the polar opposite of Dustin Johnson's, Louis Oosthuizen's classic swing is something that I'll trust on just about any type of layout. Oosty not only has a history of playing very well on major-championship golf courses, but he's also been in razor-sharp form, posting top-25 finishes in five of his last six starts while gaining strokes T2G in each. As the course difficulty gets cranked up, so does the South African's average strokes gained per round. Oosthuizen averages gaining .82 strokes per round on "Difficult" courses, versus marks of .61 and .53 on layouts classified as "Average" and "Easy".

Russell Henley

DraftKings: $7,100
FanDuel: $8,500
Notable Course History: N/A

There's lots to love at the top of the salary scale this week, and since the CJ Cup is a no-cut event, we are free to be aggressive with lineup construction. Russell Henley leads off the "this guy feels too cheap" category at $7.1k. Henley doesn't have the name recognition of many in this field, but his ball striking has been legitimately world class as of late. Over the last 24 rounds, Henley ranks third in this week's elite field in SG: Approach and second (!) in SG: T2G, while also grading out seventh in Good Drives Gained and third in Scrambling Gained.

 

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Sergio Garcia Brings Hot Irons To CJ Cup

Sergio Garcia heads to the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek just two weeks removed from a victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Garcia followed up the win with a ho-hum T43 at last week's Shriners Hospitals For Children Open, but the Spaniard's irons remained white hot at TPC Summerlin, as he gained over four strokes on approach. The veteran's elite ball striking will be a huge asset on this week's tough Shadow Creek layout, with his spotty putting ability being the only real concern. Garcia recently demonstrated that he still has legitimate fantasy upside, but it is often capped by his inconsistency with the flat stick.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Rickie Fowler Searching For Form

Rickie Fowler's struggles of 2020 continued last week at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open, as rounds of 67 and 74 left him short of the 36-hole cut line. The fan favorite has been undergoing some swing changes this year and the transition has resulted in inconsistent results. Fowler has notched three top-25 finishes since June, but has also missed five cuts. His volatility makes him tough to trust in DFS formats at the moment.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Harris English Looks To Rebound At CJ Cup

Harris English finds himself in unfamiliar territory this week as he heads to the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek on the heels of a missed cut at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. It was just his third missed cut in the past year. English has been one of the PGA Tour's most reliable players in 2020, posting 15 top-25 finishes over his last 22 starts. The 31-year-old will attempt to rebound this week on a Shadow Creek layout that should reward his strong all-around ability.