RADIO
We're more than halfway through the NFL season, with several teams already having their bye weeks behind them. Nevertheless, injuries have begun to rack up. Picking on the backups that precede starting defensive backs is a common strategy among DFS players, simply because it's a solid process. Fortunately, we have plenty of data to break down those matchups and pick the best ones to target for the coming week.
Nothing is more important than matchup analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 10. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
CHI WR Taylor Gabriel Versus DET CB Teez Tabor
The last time I wrote up Taylor Gabriel in an article, he went off for seven catches, 104 yards, and two touchdowns. That was in Week 4, when the Bears hammered the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Chicago. I'm getting similar vibes with this matchup compared to what I saw six weeks ago.
Gabriel is pacing the Bears in virtually every receiving category except touchdown grabs, and he possesses an average depth of target of 11 yards this year. He also leads the team in deep targets (targets 20 or more air yards) and has converted on 45.5-percent of those downfield looks. At just $4,900 on DK and $5,400 on FD, Gabriel is just too cheap based on his usage and ceiling.
There's also the aspect of his CB matchup against Teez Tabor, who's been one of the league's most ineffective CBs over the past three weeks. Over that span, Tabor is one of just two CBs to allow a perfect passer rating when thrown at. He's surrendered 13 catches on 14 targets for 235 yards and two touchdowns over the aforementioned stretch. Bears head coach Matt Nagy has done an excellent job at isolating opposing defenses weak points this year, and I expect him to pick on this matchup all game long this Sunday.
DET CB1 Darius Slay has also officially been ruled out for this contest, which makes the returning Allen Robinson more interesting as well. Chicago will close the week as seven-point home favorites, with an implied team point total of 25.5; ninth-highest on the Week 10 slate. If stacking Gabriel with Mitch Trubisky is an option, I strongly recommend it in DFS, as well as season-long.
CIN WR Tyler Boyd Versus NO CB P.J. Williams
Regardless of matchup, this would be a great spot for Tyler Boyd thanks to A.J. Green already being ruled out for Week 10. Vegas has this game pegged to shootout, with Cincinnati closing the week as six-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. If I were to gamble on an upset this week, I'd probably be looking Cincinnati's way.
Boyd was already leading CIN in receptions, and trailed Green in gross yardage by less than 60. Green's injury opens up a 26-percent of the teams targets and 40-percent of their total air-yards usage. There's just too much usage wide open for Boyd to not, at the very least, hit value from a fantasy points-per-dollar perspective.
Then there's the aspect of his matchup against P.J. Williams (assuming they keep Boyd in the slot). Williams has allowed the second-most receptions and the sixth-most yards in coverage over the last three weeks, to go along with two surrendered touchdown grabs. It's unlikely he'll be able to keep pace with Boyd, who remains one of the NFLs top breakout players this season.
GB WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling Versus MIA CB Torry McTyer
Geronimo Allison is headed to injured reserve, Randall Cobb is questionable, and Davante Adams will lock horns with Xavien Howard on a potential shadow-coverage situation. If there was ever a week to lock Marquez Valdes-Scantling in cash and move on, it's this one.
Torry McTyer made his return from a two-week absence, and he actually played pretty well. Regardless, he's been Miami's most inefficient CB this season, allowing nearly two yards per coverage snap, as well as a passer rating of 137.3 when targeted. He'll line up across from Valdes-Scantling on numerous occasions this Sunday, which puts the freakishly athletic rookie in a spot to smash value.
Vegas is projecting Green Bay to score the fifth-most points on the entire Week 10 slate this week. There will be plenty to go around for Valdes-Scantling, especially if Cobb ends up sitting this week.
SEA WR Tyler Lockett Versus LAR CB Marcus Peters
Name a metric to grade CBs on, and Marcus Peters ranks near the bottom in it. Peters has allowed the sixth-most receptions, second-most yards, and second-most touchdowns in coverage this season, despite opening the calendar year as one of the league's hottest trade targets. Peters has been getting cooked deep this season, and he now must deal with burner Tyler Lockett this week.
The last time these two teams met, Lockett turned just three targets into 98 yards and a touchdown. Obviously we'd love to see an uptick in volume, and that's not always guaranteed in Brian Schottenheimer's offense. Still, Lockett lining up across from Peters creates a massive mismatch that I expect Russell Wilson to try and exploit multiple times this weekend.
One last thing I found interesting: when these two teams met in Seattle back in Week 5, Wilson tossed a trio of touchdown passes. Peters was responsible for all three.
NE WR Josh Gordon Versus TEN CB Malcolm Butler
Josh Gordon has seen at least six targets in each of his last four games, and he enjoyed a genuine breakout with the New England Patriots last week. Gordon drew ten looks from Tom Brady, catching five of them for 130 yards and a score. It's exciting to see the dynamic player's resurgence, and that should continue this week against former Patriot Malcolm Butler.
Butler has demonstrated why he was benched for the Super Bowl back in February by allowing league-highs in both the receiving yardage and touchdown catch departments. He's truly been the league's worst defensive back. Gordon is riding a hot-streak, he's seeing consistent usage, and he has arguably the greatest to ever play throwing him the football. Even at $6,000 on DK, rostering Gordon in all formats is an easy decision.
To play narrative street for one second, how hilarious would it be for the Patriots to throw at Butler 10-plus times this weekend? That would be the most Bill Belichick thing you'd ever see.
DAL WR Amari Cooper Versus PHI CB Jalen Mills
It's possible our days of watching Amari Cooper play the decoy role could be a thing of the past. Cooper saw eight targets in his Dallas debut, catching five of them. He also hauled in one of them for his first score as a Cowboy.
Cooper has been a matchup-based play all season. He's been extremely CB-sensitive, balling against bad defensive backs and disappearing against good ones. I'm starting to believe this could have everything to do with Oakland opting to use their best player as a decoy to remove a team's best DB from the game. It's not a strategy I agree with, but then again I'm just a fantasy analyst.
Cooper will run against Jalen Mills, who's allowed the fourth-most receiving yards in coverage this season. This should be an easy matchup for the extremely talented route runner.
Dallas won't be involved on the main slate, but Cooper is a lock for the Sunday Night Showdown slate.
