NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Week 11 was capped off by one of the greatest offensive showcases in NFL history. Rams-Chiefs looked more like a Big 12 game than an NFL game and it was sure fun to watch.

Bill Parcells used to say, Thanksgiving is the time when you find out which teams are for real, and which ones aren't. Now we find out.

With nearly all participants in survivor pools eliminated, you may not find a need to read this column. However, some survivor pools have restarted. There's still plenty of good tidbits to help you with your daily fantasy squads. Plus, my best bets against the spread are at the bottom of this column.

Nuggets from Week 11

• The Bucs had more total yards (510) than the Rams (455)
• 1,001 yards of total offense in Rams-Chiefs
• Eagles suffered worst loss by defending Super Bowl champion, 41 points

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved. Teams italicized are my best bets.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.

Teams favored by more than seven in Week 12 per The Action Network app (home team in caps):

• SAINTS -13 vs. Falcons
• CHARGERS -12 vs. Cardinals
• RAVENS -10.5 vs. Ravens
• Patriots -9.5 @ JETS
• COLTS -9 vs. Dolphins
• COWBOYS -7 vs. Redskins

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

Teams on bye:  Chiefs, Rams

Top Survivor Picks for Week 12

In order of my favorite selections:

RAVENS -10.5 vs. Raiders

Oakland just got their second and much-needed win of the season. Now they travel to Baltimore for a 1 p.m. start on the East Coast. West coast teams traveling east struggle. The Raiders offense is average, 20th in yards per play, but the Ravens are first in opponent yards per play. Baltimore will harass Derek Carr as the Raiders are eighth in most sacks allowed. It's not like Lamar Jackson will face any pressure because the Raiders have nine total team sacks, dead last in the league (I wonder why).

Ravens 31 - Raiders 13

CHARGERS -12 vs. Cardinals

San Diego had no business losing last week. Phillip Rivers had a rookie-moment when he chucked the football into the ground on third-down instead of falling down and letting 45 seconds run off the clock. The Chargers have a dynamic offense that will rebound off last week's loss. Even though Arizona has a good offense, the Chargers are too much to handle. The Cardinals offense will have no chance to keep pace. They are 31st in yards per play and 31st third-down conversion percentage.

Chargers 37 - Cardinals 14

JETS +9.5 vs. Patriots

New York plays New England to one possession in at least one of the two meetings each year dating back to 2012. Both teams are off a bye and I think this is a seven-point game.

Patriots 26 - Jets 19

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid

Falcons +13 @ SAINTS (Thursday 8:20)

I've been picking against the Saints the last several weeks and keep getting burned. Mine as well give it one more shot with New Orleans playing a divisional rival and being favorite by an absurd two touchdowns. This is a massive overreaction after last week's 41-point romp against the Eagles. The Falcons are getting no respect — and rightly so – after they were beaten by the Browns and Cowboys. But their offense can put up points. The Saints defense can make plays, but they'll have trouble stopping all the Falcons' weapons.

Saints 34 - Falcons 30

Redskins +7 @ COWBOYS (Thursday 4:30)

After their Monday night loss two weeks ago, Jason Garrett was getting fired and people were already talking about them getting a top-10 draft pick. Now, after road wins in Philadelphia and Atlanta, Dallas can take over first place in the NFC East with a win against Colt McCoy and the Redskins. It looks too easy! It's all set up for Dallas and that is why they will disappoint.

McCoy came into Dallas four years ago on Monday night as 9.5-point underdogs, and beat the Cowboys outright in overtime. McCoy is from Texas, played college football at the University of Texas so this stage won't faze him.

The Redskins defense is number one over the last three games in red zone opponent touchdown percentage. In that span, Dallas is 28th.

Dallas is 0-7 against the spread, 3-4 straight up, on Thanksgiving under Jason Garrett. I've had a feel for the Redskins all season, knowing when to back them and go against them and feel good about them in this 'nobody believes in us' spot.

Redskins 23 - Cowboys 21

Giants +6 @ EAGLES 

How much worse can the Eagles look after their loss last week? Their defense was abysmal. Their offense couldn't do a thing. They now sit at 4-6 and can only really afford one more loss. On the other side, the Giants are winners of two in a row and things seem to have turned around. However, those wins came against the lowly 49ers and Bucs. The Eagles pass rush will get to Eli Manning, but if he can get rid of the ball quickly, Philly's secondary won't be able to cover them.

This line is two points too high.

Eagles 27 - Giants 23

Dolphins +10 @ COLTS

This line is way too high. The Colts are one of the hottest teams in football after winning four in a row. But let's take a closer look at those wins. They came against the Bills, Raiders, Jaguars, and Titans. Miami is better than those first three teams and about the same as the Titans. But they are off a bye and get Ryan Tannehill back. The Colts will win this game because they are number one in converting on third-downs, but no way they win by more than 10.

Colts 28 - Dolphins 24

The Rest 

LIONS +3 vs. Bears (Thursday 12:30) - Detroit lost last year on Thanksgiving, but before that, won four in a row. In those games, Stafford has thrown 10 touchdowns and one interception. The Bears are off a hard-fought Sunday night win and now have such little time to recover. Mitchell Trubisky is not playing and now I think the Lions win outright.

49ers +3 @ BUCS - The two teams who turn the ball over most. I'll simply take the Niners because they're off a bye.

BENGALS -3 vs. Browns - Cincy is off two consecutive losses and now must rebound against the Browns who are off a bye. The Bengals now employ Hue Jackson, Cleveland's old head coach, so maybe he knows a thing or two about his old team. The Bengals have beaten the Browns at home in eight of their last nine in addition to seven consecutive wins.

PANTHERS -3 vs. Seahawks - What an interesting game this is. The Panthers average 31 points at home, 20 on the road. They're off a heartbreaking loss in Detroit after they missed a two-point conversion. Carolina is 5-0 at home this year and should make it 6-0.

BILLS +3 vs. Jaguars - Jacksonville gave it their all last week only to lose in devastating fashion in the last seconds.

Steelers -3 @ BRONCOS - Denver's defense is in the middle of the pack in opponent yards per play, opponent third-down percentage, and opponent red-zone touchdown percentage. The Steelers defense is third-best over the last three in terms of opponent yards per play. Their offense is a ton better than Denver's and that will be the deciding factor.

VIKINGS -3 vs. Packers - Kirk Cousins needs to perform well in this national television game. The Vikings need to win to keep their divisional hopes alive.

My Running Season Total

• This week: Ravens -10.5, Falcons +13, Dolphins +10
• Last week: 1-2
• Best bet ATS record: 14-18-1

Good luck RotoBallers, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 13.

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