PGA DFS: Vegas Report - Valspar Championship

Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Rory McIlroy quieted all his doubters with an emphatic victory at the Players Championship. McIlroy, who has now posted six consecutive top-six showings, had started to hear some rumblings about being unable to close, but his resounding effort on Sunday put all of that to rest. With the win, the 15-time PGA Tour winner moves to fourth in the world rankings and is now the favorite at this year's Masters. A triumph at Augusta would give McIlroy a career grand slam, and we may see him make history in April.

Our betting card continued the trend of not being able to close on Sunday. For the third straight week, we had eight of our 10 outright recommendations make the cut, which featured two top-10 results. Hideki Matsuyama (40/1) and Jason Day (40/1) each finished in a share of eighth place, although it was Day who entered the final round with realistic expectations of winning the event. An even-par Sunday left him four back of McIlroy, but the potential was there for more.

Tiger Woods (+105) got the job done against Rickie Fowler (-125) in our head-to-head play of the week. It took a four-over 76 from Fowler during the final round to get us over the hump, but Woods made things much more difficult than they should have been. A quadruple-bogey on the infamous 17th hole on Friday halted his ascension up the leaderboard, and the 80-time PGA Tour winner was never quite able to put everything into full gear. Still, though, the victory moves us to 10-4-2 on the season and continues our hot run to begin 2019. With the Valspar Championship on tap, let's take a look into some value plays we will be targeting in Florida.

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2019 Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

7,340 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

It was somewhat surprising how many top-tiered players decided to show up for this year's Valspar Championship. The Masters is only three events away, and it seemed likely that many golfers could take the week off after competing in the Players Championship. However, that did not end up being the case, and eight players inside the top-25 in the world decided to show up this weekend.

Copperhead plays a lot longer than the 7,340 yards might indicate. There are five par-threes, and four of them measure beyond 200 yards. The four par-threes that stretch over 200 yards rank inside the nine hardest holes at the venue, and long iron play will be at a premium. There are 74 bunkers and eight water hazards, not to mention that the course plays 12 yards shorter off the tee than your average PGA Tour stop. That isn't necessarily an issue, but when you take into account that driving accuracy is also below tour average, you realize that Copperhead is one of the most challenging stops all season.

The final three holes are called the 'Snake Pit' and rank amongst the toughest three-hole stretches on tour. Strokes gained approach is always the most critical statistic, but it will be even more pronounced this weekend. If we look at past champions at the Valspar, strokes gained approach has been 14 times more influential than strokes gained off the tee. It is not uncommon to see that number three to five times higher on a given week, but 14 really emphasizes the fact that you need to be a good ball-striker to find success.

Valspar Championship Best Bets

The Valspar Championship has been an excellent betting tournament over the years. While we have seen top-10 level players win the event during the past six seasons, John Senden and Kevin Streelman have also found the winner's circle at Copperhead. With Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm and Jason Day soaking up the top of the leaderboard, there is a lot of value to be found down the card.

From this point forward, I have decided to change up the dynamics of the article. Included below are 10 golfers that I would contemplate placing a wager on at the Valspar Championship. That doesn't mean you should bet every name listed, and in fact, it would be nearly impossible to have a winning week if you did. Instead, this is meant to serve as a tool for you to examine and try to piece together your own wagers. Remember, you want to try and win around the same amount on every player, so keep that in mind when putting together your choices this weekend.

 

#1 Sergio Garcia - 16/1, DK Price $10,100, FD Price $11,300

Sergio Garcia sputtered in an 11-tournament stretch from April to August last season, but if you exclude his disqualification in Saudi Arabia in February, the Spaniard has made 12 consecutive worldwide cuts, including nine top-10 results. His victory at the Andalucia Valderrama Masters in October was an event hosted by his foundation, but he was still able to outlast Shane Lowry, Joost Luiten and Lee Westwood to name a few of the more prestigious players.

Through 16 recorded rounds on the PGA Tour this season, Garcia ranks first on tour in strokes gained approach and third in the field for par-five birdie or better percentage. Strokes gained approach has proven to be nearly 14 times more influential than strokes gained off the tee for past champions at the Valspar, and the 39-year-old is the hottest iron player in the world currently. His 16/1 outright price is on the shallow side, but outside of Dustin Johnson, I believe he is the most likely winner this week.

#2 Brandt Snedeker - 55/1, DK Price $8,400, FD Price $9,800

Brandt Snedeker's share of fifth place last weekend at the Players Championship was perhaps the result he needed to turn his 2019 season around. He finished the week ranked ninth in approach, which is scary for the field if his irons begin to heat up. The 38-year-old ranks second this season when it comes to his cumulative average in strokes gained putting and strokes gained around the green - trailing only Brian Gay.

Snedeker has never been shy in stringing together results in bunches, and his form is beginning to heat up. The American's 12.3 percent ownership on DraftKings places him on the higher side of popularity, but his 55/1 outright number is worth a second look.

#3 Henrik Stenson - 35/1, DK Price $9,100, FD Price $10,400

We have seen Henrik Stenson's outright price begin to decrease the past few weeks, and this could be the last buy-low opportunity we get on the Swede. Stenson has missed four of his previous six cuts worldwide, but it was his share of 17th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational that made me raise an eyebrow. Stenson poured in a plethora of lengthy putts over the weekend, which was the first spark of life we have seen with his flat stick in ages.

Compared to the field, Stenson is ranked sixth in strokes gained approach on the year but continues to struggle with his putter from a statistical perspective, grading out 102nd. His 15 percent projected ownership is on the high side, and there is some merit in fading the six-time PGA Tour winner at his $9,100 price tag, but the outright number is too good to pass up for a player of Stenson's caliber.

#4 Zach Johnson - 66/1, DK Price $7,600, FD Price $9,900

If you can't tell, I am not putting much stock into last week's results at the Players Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a challenging course, and bad breaks are possible at every turn. A good round can turn ugly quickly, and Johnson's missed cut doesn't deter me from backing him this weekend.

The American's biggest issue this season has been his putting. After ranking inside the top-60 in strokes gained putting from 2016-2018, Johnson has fallen to 130th to begin 2019. It is not uncommon for golfers to go through spurts of inconsistency with a given part of their game, and the 12-time PGA Tour winner has shown enough in his career for us to believe this is nothing more than a bump in the road. Johnson is ranked first compared to the field in par-three scoring and comes into the event with a 9.2 percent projected ownership.

#5 Sung Kang - 150/1, DK Price $7,200, FD Price $7,900

The best part of Sung Kang's game in 2018 was his long iron play. He ranked fourth in approaches from 175-200 yards and ninth from over 200 yards. Copperhead features a mixture of about half of the approach shots coming between 0-175 yards and the other half from 175 and above. He has gotten off to a slow start in 2019 from both of those distances, but it might allow the 31-year-old to go under-the-radar because of it.

Kang has quietly put together seven made cuts in eight events during the 2019 calendar year, including four top-25 finishes. His course history doesn't jump off the page and nor do his current statistics, but Kang is an elite long iron player when in form and an underpriced option on FanDuel. His $7,900 price tag puts him as the 86th most expensive player, more than double of where he lands on DraftKings and the outright market. Kang's birdie barrage during the Arnold Palmer Invitational will slightly increase his ownership, but he is still projected to be under 10 percent owned this weekend and is a steal at his 150/1 outright price.

#6 Danny Willet - 150/1, DK Price $6,700, FD Price $8,400

Let's backtrack a few months before looking into Danny Willett's current form. Between November to February, the Englishman made four of five worldwide cuts and captured a title at the DP Worl Tour Championship in Dubai. His last two performances have been less than stellar with missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship, but the Players was always going to be a difficult venue for him, and his two recent results have dropped him back into the same territory he was before his three-month string of success.

Willett's putting has been abysmal in 2019, but there are a few things he is doing just about as well as anyone in the world, which includes being ranked first compared to the field in proximity over 175 yards and ninth in strokes gained approach. The 80th-ranked player in the world isn't entirely back to the form he displayed during his 2016 Masters victory, but he is on the right track. His $6,700 price tag on DraftKings makes him one of the cheapest playable options on the board, and he is projected to be less than five percent owned.

#7 Sam Ryder - 175/1, DK Price $7,300, FD Price $8,600

After making five straight cuts, Sam Ryder missed the weekend at the Players Championship. His round was derailed on Thursday when he shot a quadruple-bogey seven on the infamous 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass.

The American has been a bit of an enigma recently. He has failed to stand out in many statistical categories, and that has been evident by his ho-hum finishes as of late. While that doesn't necessarily insight confidence as an outright selection, Ryder has been solid across the board. Sure, his short game has left a little to be desired, but the 29-year-old has scored on par-fives and done an excellent job of avoiding bogeys. With all that being said, Ryder is still a volatile option and someone that should only be considered as a contrarian GPP selection or outright bet.

#8 Chesson Hadley - 100/1, DK Price $7,500, FD Price $8,600

Chesson Hadley is a name that I feel like pops up quite often in these articles. His erratic nature is ideal for GPP and outright bets, and he statistically pops off the page quite often.

Compared to the field, Hadley ranks seventh in strokes gained approach and first in proximity to the hole from over 175 yards. His par-five birdie or better percentage and par-three scoring aren't ideal, but with all the par-threes coming in between 195-235 yards, Hadley might see a massive jump this weekend with his success. His $7,500 price tag and five percent ownership make him an excellent contrarian option in GPP events, and he has posted five top-20 finishes in his previous 11 tournaments. In fairness, he has also missed five cuts, but that is the kind of volatility we are looking for when dealing with 100/1 wagers.

#9 Chez Reavie - 100/1, DK Price $7,300, FD Price $9,300

Go figure, another player who missed the cut at the Players Championship. It has become the common theme of this article, but I believe the disastrous showings at TPC Sawgrass have given us value across the board.

The length at Valspar does slightly worry me when it comes to the shorter-hitting American, but if nothing else, there are two facets to Reavie's game that I know to be true. For starters, he is immaculate with his irons (especially from distance), and he is accurate off the tee. Fairways are difficult to hit at Copperhead, and because drives go 12 yards shorter on average than other PGA Tour stops, he won't be at as much of a disadvantage compared to the field. Everyone is going to have to hit their fair share of long irons, and very few in the world do it better than Reavie.

#10 Scott Langley - 300/1, DK Price $6,500, FD Price $8,200

The thought process behind Scott Langley is rather simple. He is a great putter, accurate with his driver and can score on par-threes. At odds of 300/1, the hope is that he can string together better iron play than we have seen in past weeks. The American is a longshot for a reason, but he posted a third-place appearance here in 2014 and has recorded two top-12 showings in his past seven events.

MY TOP 30 RANKED GOLFERS FOR THE WEEK

Key Stats: SG Approach (30%), SG Short Game (15%), Proximity Over 175 Yards (15%), Par-Three Average (15%), Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage (15%), Bogey Avoidance (10%)

50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

I wasn't able to run my head-to-head model because of the extra time I had to devote for March Madness. I don't want to release a play without statistical data to back it up and will continue this section next week!

2019 Head-to-Head Record (10-4-2)

+7.27 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament	Head-to-Head Bet	Bet	My Picks Finish	Opponent Finish	Result	Total
Safeway Open	Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk	1.00 Units to Win 1.30	MC (+2)	MC (E)	Loss	-1.00
CIMB Classic	Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway	1.50 Units to Win 1.25	T19 (-17)	T27 (-13)	Win	1.25
CJ Cup	Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T18 (-8)	T18 (-8)	Push	0
WGC-HSBC	Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na	1.00 Units to Win 1.20	T18 (-1)	T54 (+10)	Win	1.20
Shriners	Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley	1.00 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	MC (-1)	Loss	-1.00
Mayakoba	Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T41 (-9)	MC (+2)	Win	1.25
RSM Classic	Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	2nd (-19)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Sony Open	Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T51 (-6)	Did Not Start	Push	0
Desert Classic	Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T34 (-14)	MC (-8)	Win	1.00
Farmers Insurance	J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace	0.70 Units to Win 0.91	MC (+4)	MC (+3)	Loss	-0.70
Farmers Insurance	Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T35 (-7)	MC (E)	Win	1.00
Waste Management	Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway	1.00 Units to Win 1.05	T60 (E)	MC (E)	Win	1.05
Genesis Open	Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T9 (-7)	T51 (+1)	Win	1.00
Honda Classic	Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.43 Units to Win 1.25	T59 (+3)	MC (+10)	Win	1.25
Arnold Palmer	Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk	0.82 Units to win 0.75	T17 (-5)	T15 (-6)	Loss	-0.82
Players Championship	Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler	0.75 Units to win 0.79	T30 (-6)	T47 (-3)	Win	0.79

 

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Matt Kuchar	Mayakoba Golf Classic	66/1	1
Chesson Hadley	CIMB Classic	110/1	T2
Ryan Palmer	CJ Cup	150/1	T3
Sam Ryder	Shriners Hospitals	80/1	3
Chez Reavie	Sony Open	80/1	T3
Justin Thomas	Waste Management	10/1	3
Tommy Fleetwood	Arnold Palmer	35/1	T3
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	Arnold Palmer	60/1	T3
Lucas Glover	Honda Classic	60/1	T4
Jason Day	CJ Cup	13/1	T5
Zach Johnson	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Kevin Kisner	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Webb Simpson	TOC	25	T8
Jason Day	Players Championship	40/1	T8
Hideki Matsuyama	Players Championship	40/1	T8
J.B. Holmes	Safeway Open	60/1	9
Gary Woodland	Farmers Insurance	28/1	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	Genesis Open	30/1	T9
Shubankar Sharma	CIMB Classic	150/1	T10

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