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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): ZOZO Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! In his 10th season on the PGA Tour, Jason Kokrak was finally able to hit the lottery out in Las Vegas for his first career title. The 35-year-old entered the week as one of just a few players that had played Shadow Creek in the past, and it showed to be an advantage that helped propel him over the finish line.

Kokrak provided a complete effort that saw him rank eighth in strokes gained tee to green, but it was his astronomical 10.293 shots gained putting over the field that helped him put up a tournament-leading 26 birdies. The victory qualifies Kokrak for the 2021 Masters, and we will also see him tee it up at Augusta in November after punching his ticket earlier in the year.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - ZOZO Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

ZOZO Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Sherwood Country Club

7,006 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

The Chevron World Challenge, now known as the Hero World Challenge, took place at Sherwood Country Club from 2000 to 2013. The event consists of only 18 players, so it is difficult to gauge too much from the past, but we have seen the average winning score hover right around 16-under par. With a field that will have nearly five times the number of participants this go-around, I'd anticipate we see that number boosted, but it is important to realize what you see is not exactly what you get in the yardage.

Playing as a par-72 that measures under 7,100 yards, added distance won't do as much as it might seem like on paper. Don't get me wrong, proper accuracy with distance is never a negative, but this is a ball-strikers venue that will reward second shots. It is one of the reasons why we have seen Tiger Woods win here five times in the past, and players will be tested with approach shots from various ranges.

Bunkers come into play both off the tee and around the greens, and we will get a unique situation with their being five par-five holes for the week. There are two additional par-fours that play under 400 yards, and we will see most of the scoring come during this seven-hole stretch.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Sherwood Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Xander Schauffele at 11/1 and Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas at 12/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 20%
  • Ball Striking 20%
  • Weighted Proximity 15%
  • Strokes Gained Approach 15%
  • Bent Putting + Scramble (Weighted) 10%
  • Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance (Weighted) 10%
  • Sand Save Percentage 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Xander Schauffele ($11,200)

It was somewhat jarring to see Xander Schauffele listed as the man to beat on DraftKings, but it isn't easy to make that strong of a case against it being factual. The 26-year-old has finished inside the top-five in his last three events and hasn't ended a tournament worse than 25th since the Travelers Championship in June. I believe we get a slight decline this week in ownership because of him being listed at the top of the board, and I don't mind buying back in at $11,200 when a lot of the industry is still frustrated with Xander being unable to close out events.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

We are going to have to use ownership, stats and other factors to decipher where we want to go for the week between our big four golfers. All have upside for victory and shouldn't be entirely discounted, but that doesn't provide the answer to what is proper. If you are playing a plethora of lineups, I don't mind spreading out my exposure a little more than usual, but DFS players that only play a few games will need to make some tough decisions. Personally, I prefer Schauffele over Rahm, but we are talking about fractions of a percent.

Justin Thomas ($10,600)

Early returns have Justin Thomas as the projected highest owned player for the ZOZO Championship, but can you really blame anyone? The 27-year-old gets a venue that will reward second shots and par-five scoring, and Thomas ranks first compared to the field in both categories. You might not be able to handpick a better venue than Sherwood Country Club for the 13-time PGA Tour winner, and I believe he should have been listed as the highest-priced player on the board.

Rory McIlroy ($10,400)

As much as I want to keep going down the Rory McIlroy road, it eventually becomes counterintuitive to keep gaining negative-EV performances out of him from a DFS perspective. McIlroy hasn't paid off his salary in quite some time, and while he is technically adequately priced for the week, I wouldn't play him as much more than a contrarian option in the $10,000 range. I'd like to see a top-five performance before buying back in right now.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,000)

Tyrrell Hatton brings with him two consecutive top-three results after finishing last weekend in a share of third place, but there is no other way to say it; this increase is too much. Hatton should be in the low-$9,000 range, and I will let him beat me if it comes down to it.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

We saw some life from Collin Morikawa last weekend at Shadow Creek for the first time since his victory at the PGA Championship. Morikawa's 12th place result was aided by him gaining nearly six shots with his irons, and he receives the perfect venue to keep the momentum rolling again. Ownership always wants to get back onto the young American, so I doubt we get a version of him that is under 15%, but his upside is about as good as anyone in the field.

Webb Simpson ($9,700)

This general interpretation of Webb Simpson's skillset just isn't fair. The American has transformed himself into a statistical monster in 2020, but we continue to believe that it can't be possible for him to maintain this level with the way he is priced. There are only 78 players in this field, which will push Simpson into being very popular, but I have a hard time justifying Rory McIlroy or Tyrrell Hatton being above him in salary. Simpson should be considered value.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200)

If approach play is an expected benchmark needed to find success at the ZOZO Championship, Viktor Hovland might be the poster boy for the tournament. Hovland is ranked inside the top-10 in strokes gained approach compared to the field, and he is impressively grading out first in weighted proximity - a number you can find in my DFS model.

Daniel Berger ($8,900)

I keep mentioning this point about Daniel Berger, but it hasn't stopped the carpet from slowly being pulled from underneath him when it comes to his price tag. Right before and after the restart, Berger was playing like a freight train that looked like he might be the best golfer in the world, but we knew that wasn't exactly sustainable. As a result, his four more recent finishes between 17th to 34th place have been viewed as a disappointment, but it is fair to say that negative regression across the board has hit his game at once. If we want to move the American back into the $8,000 range because of a few subpar results by his standards, it is going to mean that I find myself significantly overweight to the field. Berger is perfectly suited to find success in California.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,400)

We have beaten the drum the last few weeks that Joaquin Niemann was underpriced, and we finally get a correction on the Chilean. Still, though, Niemann is someone I have properly priced in the high $8,000 section, and I believe there is still value to be had on the explosive youngster.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Abraham Ancer ($7,800)

After a run that looked like Abraham Ancer was closing in on his first PGA Tour title, things sputtered for the 21st-ranked player in the world for two months. Ancer could only provide one top-40 result in that time frame, but he seems to have regained some of his form with two top-30 finishes in Vegas - including a fourth place at the Shriners Open. The 29-year-old has the ball-striking acumen to keep his momentum rolling at Sherwood Country Club and should be considered a potential longshot to capture the title.

Brian Harman ($7,300)

Brian Harman hasn't finished outside the top-40 in his last seven starts but gets priced as the 33rd choice on DraftKings. The shorter venue should play into his quality short game, and I believe he is one of the better cash-game options on the board because of his recent success and price tag.

Cameron Smith ($7,200)

Similar to what I just said about Brian Harman, Cameron Smith has provided six straight top-40 finishes and enters the week priced at only $7,200. Even in a no-cut event, the safer routes will hold value in cash-game builds, and it isn't as if either player mentioned doesn't have the potential to crack the top-10.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,200)

The second-rated golfer in my model when it comes to inequality in price differential, Sebastian Munoz is quickly beginning to transform himself into a player to be reckoned with weekly. The Colombian has contributed five top-27 finishes over his last six events and continues to add to this region of lower-priced options with safety and upside.

Kevin Na ($6,900)

Nearly four strokes gained off the tee at the Shriners mixed with about 1.5 with his irons at the CJ Cup has Kevin Na trending in the right direction for the ZOZO Championship. Na is the fourth-ranked player in my model when looking at Bentgrass putting and scrambling, and his overall proximity totals should add another level of optimism. We have seen in the past that the 37-year-old is a threat to win when located at any price, and this week is no different.

Adam Hadwin ($6,700)

I understand the pricing for Adam Hadwin. His most significant advantage typically comes because of his ability to make the cut, and the lack of that in California takes away some of the reason to play him. However, there is a hidden upside available to the Canadian that some might be overlooking. Hadwin ranks inside the top-25 in proximity, sand save percentage and Bent putting, as well as being inside the top-10 over his last 24 rounds around the green. None of those statistics necessarily guarantee him to score, but I do think his overall nature of consistency makes him hard to ignore at $6,700.

Corey Conners ($6,600), Kevin Streelman ($6,600), Brendan Steele ($6,500)

There are a few options lower than this in price that will still be playable, but the bottom of the board starts to shrink up rather quickly. None of that means we can't take our chances with a Danny Lee, Mark Hubbard or Carlos Ortiz if we need to open up some salary elsewhere, but I do think we lose some of the win equity present once we bypass this area. Conners, Streelman and Steele all should be viewed as hit-and-miss options, but a ball-strikers course firmly places them in a territory of being under consideration.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - ZOZO Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Close calls have been the name of the game for me in this OAD contest, as Tyrrell Hatton was unable to get himself across the finish line over the weekend at Shadow Creek. His payout did add onto my total $565,500, but it most likely won't be enough since I am still down nearly 2.3 million dollars. Josh found himself in a similar situation with a surging Bubba Watson, but victories are the only way out of this hole we have dug ourselves into.

There are just four tournaments left in this 2020 contest, and the clock is just about to strike midnight. Can either of us strike up a formula to give ourselves a chance? Or is Joe's victory a foregone conclusion? Let's find out who the guys are selecting to get some answers.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - ZOZO Championship

Joe NicelyTyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Joaquin Niemann

How disastrous was my Matthew Wolff last week? I’m not gonna lie, a pick going that wrong can shake your confidence in a hurry...especially when it comes on the heels of a Harris English missed cut at the Shriners.

Luckily, I still have a lead in this OAD contest with the season winding down, although Spencer and Josh don’t seem to be willing to go down without a fight. I’m gonna try to land a haymaker this week with Tyrrell Hatton, a scrapper if I’ve ever seen one. The Englishman has been white hot as of late, notching a victory at the BMW in Europe two weeks ago and posting a T3 last week at the CJ Cup. I am a bit worried about the fatigue factor with Hatton, but it is tough to ignore a player that gained over NINE strokes on Approach last week at Shadow Creek. We’re making some educated guesses as to how this week’s Sherwood Country Club layout will play, but we can expect plenty of long irons to be required...an area where Hatton thrives

Yearly Earnings - $7,811,657

Yearly Cuts Made - 25/30

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

I am playing a numbers game right now. Down nearly 2.3 million with only four events left is not promising, but I have a total in mind (1.5 million) that I would like to be at entering the Masters. If I can get there, which isn't very likely, watch out. Bryson is coming.

Part of the issue with my plan is that next week's Bermuda Championship pays less than some of my wagers. I know I've been accused of tampering with Joe's players while they were in Las Vegas, but what is this schedule? No-cut event after no-cut event. Payouts that equal a birdie in my Skins game. Joe is running out the clock with the refs in his back pocket.

Unfortunately, options are thin for me in California, as I have used the top-11 priced golfers on the board. I believe any conventional wisdom is out the window since I need a victory, but I can't find a "safer" spot to go than Viktor Hovland. Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have a ton of win equity sprinkled between them, and I feel like my best course of action is to take the discounted version of those two and hope he catches fire with his putter for a few days. The deck seems to be stacked against me, but I will continue to count cards for as long as this is mathematically possible to do so.

Yearly Earnings - $5,528,192

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/30

 

Josh Bennett - Matthew Wolff

Alternate - Russell Henley

Joe whiffed on Wolff last week, so now is a great time to jump on him in a perfect bounce-back spot. Spencer still has him available and wouldn’t be surprised if he used him as well, but we’re mostly worried about how to catch Joe right now. The popular saying with Wolff this week is that it’s a “home game” for him. That’s great, and maybe it helps? However, there are plenty of guys that play poorly at courses they are familiar with or live near too, so I am not using that as my reasoning for using him, although I hope it is helpful.

After looking over the course, I think this place will really favor a long hitter that also plays well from the 175-200 yard range. The long hitter part is obvious by now for Wolff. He should have a significant advantage there on all the par 5’s and a handful of par 4’s. The majority of the other holes will leave him with shots in the yardage range I mentioned earlier. Although he isn’t spectacular in proximity from that range, you don’t necessarily need to be when the greens are large like they are here. Birdies are hard to come by anyway from that far away, so I’m more concerned about being able to get it on the green and make par.

A guy with his length will be able to make up birdies on many other holes. I looked over at the GIR % from the 175-200 range and Wolff pops into the top 15 in 2020 in that statistic, so he’ll give himself tons of chances for birdie (even if they’re long chances), and easy finishes for par. One thing I will trust with his experience on the course is knowing the greens, which I think gives him a leg up on putting, so if he’s consistently getting the ball onto the green he shouldn’t have any problems at minimum walking away with easy pars on those holes. If he can get lucky and roll a few of the longer ones in, I think there’s a chance he could even run away with this thing.

Yearly Earnings - $4,589,627

Yearly Cuts Made - 25/30

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0
Shriners Harris English $0 Joaquin Niemann $125,417 Rickie Fowler $0
CJ Cup Matthew Wolff $16,575 Tyrrell Hatton $565,500 Bubba Watson $314,438

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Adam Scott Withdraws From ZOZO Because Of COVID-19

Adam Scott has withdrawn from the ZOZO Championship at Sherwood Country Club after testing positive for COVID-19. Scott, who last competed at the U.S. Open in September, should be okay for the Masters in one month, but it is a disappointing outcome that will most likely keep him out of action for the next two weeks. Jim Herman will get his spot in the field this week in California, but it is difficult to expect much of the 104th-ranked player in the world. Herman does have two victories in the past two seasons, but those are also his only two top-10 results he has to his name.

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Russell Henley Looks To Keep Momentum Going

It has been five straight top-27 finishes for Russell Henley, who will look to keep the positive momentum rolling at the ZOZO Championship. Henley enters the week off of a third-place result at Shadow Creek, and there are reasons to believe he might be in line for another solid performance in California. The American is ranked second over his last 24 rounds compared to the field in strokes gained approach and is also inside the top-25 in strokes gained total, par-three and par-four scoring, as well as overall bogey avoidance. If you are looking for a negative, he ranks just 62nd in our model for par-five scoring, but will that be enough to ignore him entirely?

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Scottie Scheffler Has Had Slow Restart From COVID-19

Scottie Scheffler will be teeing it up for the fourth week in a row, hoping to regain some of his pre-COVID form. Scheffler has failed to crack the top-35 in his previous three starts since recovering from the virus, but we wouldn't discount his potential at Sherwood Country Club. The American is a ball-striking savant that can score on par-fives, and his $8,200 salary on DraftKings should provide GPP optimism for those that are willing to take a chance. There is no guarantee Scheffler turns it around, but there are worse gambles to take at around 10 percent ownership.

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Daniel Berger Should Be Considered A Value At His Going Rate

Immediately before and after the restart, Daniel Berger was playing at a level of being one of the world's best golfers. Unfortunately, regression seems to have set in all at once, and the American has slipped into a current trajectory that has seen him finish between 17th and 34th place in his four most recent starts. While we realize most are buying into the sale of the 13th-ranked player in the world, Berger is someone that has fallen too far in recent weeks on DraftKings. Consider the 27-year-old to be a superb buy-low option that has upside to win in California. He may not have been as good as his short-term sample size indicated, but we believe he is better than his current going rate.

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Hideki Matsuyama Has Been Struggling To Pay Off DFS Salary

A high made-cut percentage has always been a factor that has pushed Hideki Matsuyama into being an intriguing prospect for DraftKings contests, but the Japanese sensation has recently struggled to pay off his backers. The no-cut nature in California does slightly hurt Matsuyama's value, and it adds to the worry that the 28-year-old has only gained strokes on the greens in five of his previous 20 events. Matsuyama is a statistical monster when you remove his flat stick while handicapping, but it continues to be an issue that isn't going away anytime soon.

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Patrick Cantlay Can't Completely Shake Form

By Patrick Cantlay's lofty standards, it has been a cold stretch of golf for him since the restart. Cantlay has only provided one top-10 finish in his last eight events, and it came at a venue in Las Vegas where he had never come worse than second place in three prior attempts. There are reasons to believe that the shorter venue and Bentgrass greens will give the American a boost for the week, and it shouldn't hurt matters that Cantlay is ranked inside the top-10 of the field in par-five scoring. The 28-year-old will be one of the least owned players above $9,000 on DraftKings and could provide some contrarian upside in GPP contests.

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Xander Schauffele Headlines ZOZO Card

It may have been somewhat jarring for some to see Xander Schauffele listed at the top of the DraftKings board, but the 26-year-old has earned his price tag of $11,200. Schauffele has finished inside the top-five in his last three events and hasn't ended a tournament worse than 25th since the Travelers Championship in June. We believe there will be a slight decline this week in ownership because of him being listed as the man to beat, not to mention the general dismay within the industry because of his lack of closing out events, but many factors are pointing in Schauffele's direction for another positive performance.

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Dustin Johnson Not Ready To Return

Dustin Johnson has withdrawn from this week's ZOZO Championship at Sherwood Country Club after missing last week's CJ Cup due to a positive COVID-19 test. The big-hitting American was eligible to return Thursday since he would have been 10 days clear of initial symptoms, but Johnson still isn't feeling 100 percent and believed it would be best to wait and resume his schedule in Houston. The removal of the top-ranked player in the world has opened up a slot for Matt Kuchar, who enters the week priced at $6,800 on DraftKings. Kuchar has had some past success at Sherwood Country Club and will look to get his season going in a better direction.

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PGA DFS Vegas Report - ZOZO Championship (Premium Content)


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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): CJ Cup

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Martin Laird captured the first leg of the Vegas stretch on Sunday at TPC Summerlin, defying physics with a few of his shots during the final round. Not only did Laird find a way to make eagle from a buried lie near the lip of the bunker, but he proceeded to get up-and-down at the par-three 17th after looking like double-bogey was in play.

While we didn't pinpoint Laird in our article last week, I am incredibly pleased with what transpired. Justin Suh, who was our longshot value at TPC Summerlin, took home a top-10 result at just $6,200, and it helped matters out that one of our biggest fade recommendations (Collin Morikawa) missed the cut on Friday. We will look to keep the momentum going for the second consecutive week in my hometown, so let's roll the dice once again.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

CJ Cup - PGA DFS Overview

Shadow Creek

7,527 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

We are going to have an uphill climb in what to expect for the CJ Cup this week. I wish I had more information about the venue since it is located in my city, but Shadow Creek is one of the most exclusive clubs in the country, and I can't say I have much first-hand knowledge when it comes to the ins-and-outs of the property.

Originally designed and opened by Tom Fazio in 1990, you may remember Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelson holding their original match at the venue in 2018. It is tough to decipher too much from a matchplay contest where neither man played their best golf, but we still can take a few things away from what we witnessed.

At 7,527 yards, we should expect distance to be an advantage, which is emphasized by three of the par-fives stretching over 570 yards. Long iron proximity becomes something that we can target in our research, and we might want to add some around the green numbers because of the length of second shots. On weeks where it isn't easy to know what to forecast numerically, I like to keep things steady with basic modeling that doesn't get overly complex. The cream typically rises to the top in these shallow field events, and I wouldn't expect much of that to change in Vegas.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Shadow Creek Tour Average
Driving Distance N/a 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm lead the way at 10/1 and are followed by Justin Thomas at 12/1 and Rory McIlroy/Xander Schauffele at 14/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off The Tee 20%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 20%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Driving Distance 15%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
  • Bent Putting + Scrambling 10%
  • Overall Birdie or Better + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,300)

Six players located above $10,000 should give us some semblance of how tightly priced casinos and DFS sites view the top of the board to be for the CJ Cup. I can't deviate too much from the narrative since I have the big five participating in this event as the deserving five choices (in not necessarily the same order), but it does give us a more complex handicapping strategy to consider. Early returns are suggesting that Rahm and Rory McIlroy might be your two lowest owned players in this range, but I do believe it is important to not get caught up entirely in a strategy that tries to fade the chalk. With that being said, Rahm and McIlroy would have been my preferred options in a vacuum situation, which will only help push me into owning a slightly larger portion of the duo.

Dustin Johnson ($11,100)

In a week where we aren't sure how many players have prior first-hand experience at the property, Dustin Johnson enters the contest as the clubhouse leader with his course record of 66. That number only takes into account rounds since the Fazio restoration in 2008, but it might surprise some to see six-under par as the best round on record over the last 12 seasons. I don't want to go down this path of making Shadow Creek sound as if it is a test that is going to mimic what we just saw transpire at Winged Foot since the exclusivity of the property doesn't exactly allow tons of rounds from quality golfers, but I do believe the comparison to TPC Summerlin is not fair in the sense that this week could see a winning score that is closer to what we would expect at a venue that isn't yielding birdies in bunches. We know Johnson plays slightly more challenging courses well, and I would expect that we see him use his driving prowess to provide another quality effort.

*** DJ has withdrawn from the event because of COVID.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

The cat has been out of the bag for years with Justin Thomas' results in no-cut tournaments, and that alone is going to inflate the American to perhaps being the most owned player on the slate. It seems likely that the winner will come from within this range, so I wouldn't necessarily overthink ownership totals to try and be contrarian. However, the decision will have to be yours. I don't have many negative things to say about this group, and you are going to have to figure out what bothers you while trying to separate the fivesome.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

We haven't seen the best out of Rory McIlroy since the restart, but I am finding it difficult to ignore his three consecutive top-12 results. I realize it is hard to write home about a 12th and a seventh during two tournaments that featured subsided fields, but that portrayal is exactly what makes me believe the Irishman is undervalued for the week. His eighth-place result at the U.S. Open came at a venue that didn't exactly highlight his preferred course difficulty, and I think we see him use his added length to compete for a title this weekend in Vegas.

Xander Schauffele ($10,300)

When the GIR percentage in a tournament goes down, we typically see Xander Schauffele take some steps above the rest of the field. Schauffele is arguably the best golfer in the world when it comes to hitting greens, and the added distance of second shots should only increase his advantage. The no-cut narrative will boost his ownership, but I can't find too many alarming factors to use against him in Vegas.

Matthew Wolff ($10,000)

BOOO! Matthew Wolff landing inside the $10,000 range means I have to talk about him. For those that follow this article closely, you will know that I don't discuss the American often. I essentially live by the mindset that he is playable when distance and scoring will be manageable and out of play when he can get himself into trouble off the tee. That didn't work perfectly when we saw Wolff come second at the U.S. Open a few weeks ago, but I hate to admit that the youngster does seem to be morphing into a much steadier player. The 21-year-old is still marginally overpriced because of his recent success, but I don't think it is as pronounced as it used to be in the past.

 

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Daniel Berger ($9,300)

Daniel Berger has provided a handful of respectable finishes in a row, but it is a far cry from what the 13th-ranked player in the world was generating right before and after the restart. I do think it is fair to say that some regression to the mean has taken place for the American, but what should we consider a suitable price on Berger? For me, somewhere in the mid $9,000 range is the correct going rate, and I believe we are saving a few hundred dollars at $9,300.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,200)

Hideki Matsuyama burned the industry a week ago at TPC Summerlin and should see some reduced ownership across the board at Shadow Creek. I'm less worried about his missed cut than usual since we are guaranteed four rounds out of the Japanese sensation, and Matsuyama tends to be a golfer that can exceed his finishing position on DFS sites because of his ball-striking acumen.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000)

Off the tee success, quality long irons and the ability to score on par-fives is a relatively simplistic overview of what Viktor Hovland does well, and it should help that Shadow Creek appears like it will demand similar traits to find success. The 23-year-old has struggled early in his career around the greens, but we have seen a slight improvement as of late in that area of his game.

Scottie Scheffler ($8,800)

Let's try to erase Scottie Scheffler's missed cut at the Shriners Open out of our memory bank. We can't take much away from a golfer firing a six-under par through two rounds and missing the cut, and it shouldn't be a deterrent while making your builds. Scheffler has shown some flashes of brilliance over his last two events and should be able to find a better rhythm in his third consecutive start since recovering from COVID.

Sungjae Im ($8,700)

It may come as a surprise to some, but Sungjae Im, not Bryson DeChambeau, led the Shriners Open in strokes gained off the tee at TPC Summerlin. Im added to his resume by ranking first in accuracy and greens in regulation, and any improvement with his putter might turn the South Korean into a threat to exceed the expectation level around him at Shadow Creek.

Paul Casey ($8,000)

A lack of perceived upside typically keeps Paul Casey's ownership down in more significant events, and it looks to be the case once again this weekend. The Englishman's $8,000 price tag is low enough so we don't have to worry about what his exact win equity is for the tournament, and it gives us a golfer that should have a decent shot to exceed his salary on DFS sites.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Justin Rose ($7,800)

Ranked fourth in my model compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage, Justin Rose's volatility should be viewed as a positive in this no-cut event. Rose has been known to come out of left field in the past, and the combination of long iron proximity and Bentgrass greens should only add to the allure around the Englishman.

Shane Lowry ($7,600)

After leading through two rounds during last week's BMW PGA Championship, Shane Lowry fired a final round 73 on Sunday to slip into 13th place. It was a disappointing culmination to the Irishman's event, but it should help keep him under the radar at Shadow Creek. Lowry is currently projected to be just two percent owned on DraftKings, and there will be contrarian value to be had for those that are willing to take a gamble.

Bubba Watson ($7,300)

I'm not sure if Bubba Watson's finishes are telling the complete story of how well he is striking the ball. Watson has gained a combined 22.2 strokes off the tee and with his irons over his last four events, and it has just been a poor putter that has held him back each weekend. Perhaps Watson could take a page out of Sergio's book and try putting with his eyes closed, but I wouldn't be shocked if we see it all come together for him soon.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,000)

I am pretty surprised to see Sebastian Munoz projected to carry under 10 percent ownership for the CJ Cup. It has been seven events since Munoz has missed a cut, and while that isn't something he will need to worry about this weekend in Las Vegas, his five top-27 finishes in his previous six events will go a long way. The 27-year-old is a threat to fall within that qualifying zone once again and should be considered a bargain at his going rate of $7,000.

Ryan Palmer ($6,700)

We have grown accustomed to volatility while rostering Ryan Palmer, but an event like the CJ Cup naturally lends itself to taking a more aggressive approach. Palmer is a quality par-five scorer who gains strokes tee-to-green, and it is going to be challenging to find more upside than he presents in this $6,000 range.

Dylan Frittelli ($6,600)

A ranking of 12th off the tee compared to the field over his previous 24 rounds is enough to give Dylan Frittelli a second look, and the picture becomes a little clearer when we peek at his ability to save par around the greens, as well as score on par-fives. The South African has generated six top-34 results in his last eight events, which means we should be viewing him as someone who is underpriced.

Cameron Champ ($6,400)

It is tough to like much about the form Cameron Champ is bringing to the event, but if firepower turns into the name of the game at Shadow Creek, there aren't many players in the world that possess more of it than the American. Champ is a GPP-only option that becomes less intriguing as the ownership rises, but I could be convinced to purchase a share or two at the right total.

Joohyung Kim ($6,400)

Joohyung Kim entered the beginning of 2019 ranked 2006th in the world but has turned in four worldwide victories and an additional 12 top-6 results in his last 31 events. All of this has moved him up to 117th in the 'Official World Golf Rankings,' and have I mentioned that he is only 18 years old? Kim doesn't have enough concrete statistical data in my model to provide confidence of what exactly he is as a player quite yet, but there are a ton of interesting categories that are showing him to be a potential phenom.

Harry Higgs ($6,300)

Ranked inside the top-30 of my model compared to the field in both driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, Harry Higgs is a golfer that can quickly move up this leaderboard if we get handed a course that is moderate in difficulty. Higgs has bounced back and forth between top-15 finishes and results outside the top-50 in his last four events, but his ability to gain strokes with his driver should come in handy.

 

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA DFS Vegas Report - CJ Cup (Premium Content)


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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - CJ Cup

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

It was a quiet weekend on the OAD front for our crew at the Shriners Open, as I was the only member that earned a payday with Joaquin Niemann's 13th place result in Vegas. Unfortunately, chipping away at Joe's lead isn't going to get the job done, and the prospects continue to look bleaker and bleaker for Josh and I with each passing event.

We do have a substantial purse up for grabs during our second league of the Vegas stretch, but the time to make a move will have to be now. With a field barely over 70 players, options are slightly more condensed to choose from because of what has transpired early in the season, and it will be interesting to see where the guys decide to go for one of the bigger tournaments left on the schedule.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - CJ Cup @ Shadow Creek

Joe Nicely - Matthew Wolff

Alternate - Louis Oosthuizen

Ok, so I'm coming off my first complete and total misfire in awhile, as Harris English missed the cut last week at the Shriners. The player that I should have rolled with last week was Matthew Wolff, a young man whose game looked absolutely electric at TPC Summerlin.

Perhaps I'm a week late, but I'm not letting this kid pass me by again. If I go down for a second time in Vegas (this is Spencer's home court after all, so it's possible that he tampered with Harris English's equipment last week), it's gonna be swinging with Matty Wolff.

He's ridiculously long off the tee, which will come in handy on this 7,500-plus yard Shadow Creek masterpiece, but the 21-year-old has also been firing on all cylinders with his irons and has gained over six strokes on Approach in his last two starts. In addition to the ball striking, Wolff's touch around the greens continues to evolve, and he stands sixth in this elite field in SG: ATG over the last 12 rounds.

This might not be the most creative pick I've ever made in this contest, but it is one that I'm making with a truckload of conviction. I'm rolling the dice on Wolff and betting that he leaves Sin City as the week's big winner.

Yearly Earnings - $7,795,082

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/29

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

Man, what I would give to cancel the Tour Championship from this contest. Not only did it result in Joe earning a 1.665 million dollar "victory" with Xander Schauffele, but it also took away Rory McIlroy from my player pool. If you have the Irishman left at your disposal, it will have to be here or the Masters, and I would lean towards this being the ideal spot to use your big gun.

Sadly, that option is off the table for me, and it has resulted in a last-minute switch-up that I didn't anticipate making. These have never historically gone well in recent memory, but I've decided to deploy Tyrrell Hatton over Scottie Scheffler. I have to assume Joe is going to rollout Matthew Wolff, and it just seemed to be more logical of a decision to take the guy coming into the event off of a win than playing the guy who just missed the cut.

Hatton has won three of his last 13 worldwide events, and while this is clearly a swing for the fence and hope for the best situation, I feel as if there may be a better location to play Scheffler at down the stretch. Hatton's starts on tour might be limited, and it probably doesn't make sense for me to leave the 10th-ranked player in the world on my board when I am down nearly three million dollars.

Yearly Earnings - $4,962,692

Yearly Cuts Made - 23/29

 

Josh Bennett - Bubba Watson

Alternate - Gary Woodland

After Rickie’s slip up last week I’m pretty sure there’s no chance I can catch Joe now, but we’re sure going to try! Going to need some weird things to happen, so hopefully that starts with Bubba winning another golf tournament.

We’ve learned that Bubba is only good on “Bubba tracks”, but he’s actually been playing good all over the place recently which is a good sign heading into a place where they haven’t played an event before. The course will favor a long hitter, and with Bubba’s ability to move the ball in both directions he should be able to take some angles down the fairways that others won’t be able to.

He’s also great with longer irons in his hands which will benefit him on a course where half the holes will require a shot over 175 yards to the green. His game around the green is not good, but if he can just have an above average week near and on the greens we will see his name near the top of the leaderboard. Hopefully it’s at the very top of the leaderboard, I need it.

Yearly Earnings - $4,275,189

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/29

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0
Shriners Harris English $0 Joaquin Niemann $125,417 Rickie Fowler $0

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - CJ Cup

Please enjoy this PGA Premium article free for a limited time.

Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining us for the CJ Cup! This is a new article that we're offering each week as part of our PGA Premium subscription, and we hope that you will find it useful.

Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

CJ Cup

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

 

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

  • Joe Nicely: Russell Henley ($7.1k) & Jason Kokrak ($7.0k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sebastian Munoz ($7,000), Joaquin Niemann ($7,500), Bubba Watson ($7,300), Sungjae Im ($8,700)
  • Josh Bennett: Ryan Palmer (6,700)
  • Tommy Bell: Joaquin Niemann ($7,500)

 

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

  • Joe Nicely: Xander Schauffele ($10.3k) & Matthew Wolff ($10k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas (10,800)
  • Tommy Bell: Justin Thomas ($10,800)

 

Who is your top GPP play?

  • Joe Nicely: Hideki Matsuyama ($9.2k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy ($10,600)
  • Josh Bennett: Gary Woodland (7,700)
  • Tommy Bell: Si Woo Kim ($7,100)

 

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

  • Joe Nicely: Louis Oosthuizen ($8.5k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Daniel Berger ($9,300), Viktor Hovland ($9,000)
  • Josh Bennett: Viktor Hovland (9,000)
  • Tommy Bell: Joaquin Niemann ($7,500)

 

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

  • Joe Nicely: Abraham Ancer ($8.2k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800)
  • Josh Bennett: Scottie Scheffler (8,800)
  • Tommy Bell: Jon Rahm ($11,300)

 

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

  • Joe Nicely: SG: T2G, SG: Approach, SG: OTT
  • Spencer Aguiar: Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Par-Five Birdie or Better %
  • Josh Bennett: SG: Approach
  • Tommy Bell: SG: Off-the-Tee, Proximity 175-200, SG: Around-the-Green

 

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

  • Joe Nicely: Bubba Watson ($7.3k) & Cameron Smith ($6.8k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Harry Higgs ($6,300), Joohyung Kim ($6,400) - Very minimal on Kim. There is a large level of combustibility present.  
  • Josh Bennett: Cameron Champ (6,400)
  • Tommy Bell: Adam Hadwin ($6,700)

 

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

  • Joe Nicely: Louis Oosthuizen (50/1), Bubba Watson (66/1)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy (14/1)
  • Josh Bennett: Gary Woodland (60/1)
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger (25/1) 

 

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

  • Joe Nicely: Brooks Koepka WDs
  • Spencer Aguiar: Justin Rose, Jason Day and Bubba Watson all come within the top-20
  • Josh Bennett: The winner is under 6500 on DK
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger and Justin Thomas play 5 holes in a crazy playoff 

 

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

  • Joe Nicely: Matt Wolff ($10.0k) - Love his length, current form, and confidence. 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy ($10,600) - We are going to need the winner with this being a no-cut contest, and I am going to go heavy on the player that I think presents the best win equity for the week. 
  • Josh Bennett: Gary Woodland (7,700) - He's typically a top ball striker and is a much higher caliber player than his price. A birdie maker as well in a no-cut event at his price is always worth a shot even in poor form.
  • Tommy Bell: Joaquin Niemann ($7,500) - Solid course fit. HUGE upside. A very low price tag. What else can I ask for?

 

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

  • Joe Nicely: Stars & Scrubs
  • Spencer Aguiar: Stars & Scrubs
  • Josh Bennett: Balanced
  • Tommy Bell: Fairly balanced

 

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

  • Joe Nicely: Matthew Wolff
  • Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy
  • Josh Bennett: Justin Thomas
  • Tommy Bell: Daniel Berger

 

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

 

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Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Can Hideki Matsuyama End His Winless Drought?

It has been over three years since Hideki Matsuyama's last win of any kind, and it has turned into a head-scratching dilemma for the 28-year-old out of Japan. Matsuyama is one of the best players on tour, and we see that by him ranking inside the top-25 compared to the field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained around the green and long iron proximity. Unfortunately, things haven't been as ideal for the 19th-ranked player in the world once he finds himself having to putt, rating near the bottom on almost all surfaces. The five-time PGA Tour winner has been close to neutral on Bentgrass greens, providing us hope that he can turn it around this weekend in Vegas, but he will need an improvement to get himself back to where he belongs. With all that being said, we wouldn't put it past him. His upside is tantalizing.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Patrick Cantlay Looks To Keep Stellar Course History Alive

It has been a ravishing past three years for Patrick Cantlay at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. The 28-year-old has put together an impressive streak of two seconds and a first since 2017, and he will try to keep the momentum rolling with another top-two result in 2020. However, despite the storied history in Vegas, Cantlay doesn't enter this contest with as much speed as in years past, failing to post a top-10 result in his last six tournaments. Will that hamper his performance in any way this season? Only you can decide if that will be the case.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Webb Simpson Has Quietly Found Success In Vegas

When we talk about course fits for Webb Simpson, TPC Summerlin doesn't often get mentioned as one of his go-to locations. Sedgefield Country Club, TPC Scottsdale and Harbour Town are a few of the sites we tend to discuss when talking about Simpson's best spots, but Vegas has quietly been an area we have seen the seventh-ranked player in the world dominate at in the past. Four top-20 results are accompanied by a victory in 2013 over the last seven years, and the American enters the week trending in the right direction with four consecutive top-17 showings on tour.

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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Shriners Open

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Did anyone see the possibility for Sergio Garcia to regain some putting form at the Sanderson Farms? If you answered no, you probably weren't much different than the Spaniard, who was putting with his eyes closed throughout the event.

While it almost sounds like an outlandish story that can't be true, Garcia admitted after his round on Saturday that this is a strategy he has deployed numerous times throughout his career, including during his only major championship victory at Augusta. Sometimes seeing is believing, and who am I to question the now 11-time PGA Tour winner.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Shriners Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Shriners Open - PGA DFS Overview

TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

The PGA Tour brings a star-studded field to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which is a welcoming sight after a few substandard contests in a row. Measuring in as a 7,251 yard par-71, Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course itself meanders through arroyos and canyons and features lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough.

I've noted before that I don't play a ton of golf, but TPC Summerlin is a venue that I have teed it up at in the past. Only 15 minutes away from my house, the property is one of the most visually aesthetic in the city, but for what it brings in looks, you lose some of the difficulty along the way. One hundred and two bunkers were redone in 2018 to try and add a little more challenge, but it hasn't appeared to do much with the average winning score coming in at 22-under par during that time frame.

In my opinion, the only real defense for the course itself would be wind. Many people don't realize just how breezy Vegas can get throughout the year, and it does appear as if gusts are in the forecast. We will see if that holds accurate after an extremely subdued last few weeks, but it is worth noting that we might want to find golfers that play well in conditions that are a little tougher. The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. There is a challenging par-three 17th, but that will be the only real test for players coming home. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin in an ideal situation, and it is not as if we should be anticipating anything that will be too grueling for the field.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat TPC Summerlin Tour Average
Driving Distance 295 281
Driving Accuracy 59% 62%
GIR Percentage 72% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 54% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.53 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Bryson DeChambeau leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 11/1, Patrick Cantlay at 16/1 and Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1. Kevin Na, your defending champion, enters the week at 70/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off the Tee 17.5%
  • Weighted Bent Putting + Scrambling 15%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
  • Weighted Total Driving 15%
  • Sand Save 12.5%
  • Proximity 125-175 Yards 12.5%
  • Proximity 200+ Yards 12.5%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Bryson DeChambeau ($11,800)

There are some weeks where you can get contrarian to find an edge in DFS contests, but it won't be easy to think outside the box for the Shriners Open. TPC Summerlin has proven to be a venue that consistently has the same names rise to the top, and I believe it is essential to look at course history before handicapping the event. That is never a narrative that you hear me discuss for this article, as I am a firm believer that stats and current form tell more of the picture than past results at a venue, but the top of the DFS board reads like a "who's who" for past success. Bryson DeChambeau's three consecutive top-seven results at the property, including his victory in 2018, will go a long way, but it won't come cheaply at $11,800.

Webb Simpson ($11,000)

A victory here in 2013 to go along with four other top-20 results in his other six attempts shows that TPC Summerlin has quietly been one of Webb Simpson's go-to locations. We always discuss his dominance at places like the Wyndham Championship, but Vegas has quietly turned into a location where the American has popped, even when he hasn't ridden the best form into the week. I believe gamers looking for a rebate in price can safely go down to the seventh-ranked player in the world, but we shouldn't be getting much deviation in ownership between Simpson and DeChambeau. Everyone above $10,000 will be popular.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,400)

Patrick Cantlay will provide us our first real thinking spot at $10,400. The American grades out as my fifth-ranked golfer in terms of overall DFS modeling, but he does come in below the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama. The margins are so thin that I wouldn't necessarily blame anyone for pivoting to the 13th-ranked player in the world, but it is worth noting that Cantlay isn't bringing the same form to the week of previous seasons, which might prevent him from adding his fourth consecutive top-two finish at TPC Summerlin to his resume. We are nitpicking here, but I could argue that Cantlay might end up being my odd man out for no other reason than strength around him.

Tony Finau ($10,200)

Surprisingly, Tony Finau is my first "true value" of the week, as the big-hitter from Utah should be priced $200 more on DraftKings. Again, we are talking fractions of a percent when it comes to expected output, but I like to pinpoint where there are deviations from my model to actual pricing. With all that being said, I always find it challenging to pay up in salary for Finau, who has proven to have trouble getting himself across the finish line. I am done predicting where Finau's next victory will happen, but TPC Summerlin is a good location for his style, and I wouldn't be surprised if he finds himself having another chance on Sunday.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900)

I'll be interested to see where Hideki Matsuyama falls with his actual ownership. As of right now, the Japanese sensation is expected to generate 15% for DraftKings contests, but I could see that number falling as gamers shift to other options around him. Matsuyama's ball-striking nature should give him a chance to grow from his 16th-place result here last season, and his overall makeup places him as perhaps the safest option under $10,000. I realize my happy-go-lucky disposition for every golfer is wearing thin, but it should explain how correctly priced a board we have received. Sometimes it just isn't easy to find value.

Collin Morikawa ($9,800)

From a pure upside perspective, Collin Morikawa is an intriguing route for GPP contests. His two missed cuts in his previous three events will take him off my board when it comes to cash games, but the American provides us with the same caliber upside as the top of the board, just at a reduced salary price. Saving a few dollars is never a bad thing, and it might allow you more maneuverability in roster construction.

Jason Day ($9,500)

I'd be negligent if I didn't discuss Jason Day during an event in my hometown. My affinity for the Aussie has not been hidden, but I want to make it clear that he earns his spot in this write-up because of his skills. Day's ability to scramble, play out of the bunker and score on par-fives will come in handy at TPC Summerlin, and he provides DFS participants an extremely intriguing situation to grab a top-tiered player at less than five percent.

Sungjae Im ($9,300)

It was a swing and a miss for Sungjae Im last weekend in Mississippi after fluttering to a 28th-place result at the Sanderson Farms. Lofty ownership from the previous week that doesn't result in a top-10 finish will typically account for most DFS players going underweight in the following contest, and that narrative is shaping up early in the week. Im is only projected to be nine percent owned, but I'd be careful in avoiding the 22-year-old. Im has a 15th-place finish on his record here in 2018 and showed some life last Sunday with a final round 66.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)

I think it is important to check how someone missed a cut when doing research. After a 10th-place showing in 2018 at TPC Summerlin, Joaquin Niemann failed to make the weekend last year, missing the cut on the number. Two rounds of 69 shouldn't indicate any potential issues, and the Chilean has the upside to make birdies in bunches - something that can play to his advantage if he gets hot.

Brian Harman ($8,000)

Brian Harman's lack of robust finishes has kept him subdued in salary for the last few months, but it continues to provide us a situation to grab the lefty at a reduced price tag. Harman has provided back-to-back top-18 results at this week's venue, and his ability to scramble and get up-and-down out of bunkers should give him an edge over most of the field.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Doc Redman ($7,900)

I guess we have to discuss Doc Redman, who is projected to be the highest owned player this week under $8,000. I typically don't find as much value as most on the 22-year-old, but I agree that Redman is underrated for this week's contest. I do think we have potential pivot situations possible, but I won't be entirely avoiding the American as I sometimes do.

Cameron Smith ($7,800)

Speaking of potential pivots, Cameron Smith gives us someone that has shown to be capable of winning on tour but isn't a name that most seem to want to roster. The Aussie enters the week having produced four straight top-45 results, and he hasn't finished outside of 13th in his previous two showings in Vegas. Golfers like Smith are typically where I like to shift when ownership clouds a section, and his five percent projected total has me raising both eyebrows.

Harold Varner ($7,500)

It is hard to compile all of what Harold Varner III has done over the past few years and not feel as if he has underachieved. The American has only produced one top-10 showing on tour in 2020, and he hasn't exactly been a beacon for consistency with eight missed cuts in 17 tournaments. However, despite all the negative traits we can highlight of why he hasn't found more success, Varner seems to be trending towards a golfer ready to achieve more in his career. Three top-29 finishes over his last four tournaments is an encouraging sign, and his ability to gain strokes off the tee shouldn't be discounted.

Aaron Wise ($7,400)

There are a lot of players in the field with a Las Vegas backstory, but Aaron Wise takes it to another level. The 24-year-old experienced his first big break at the property in 2016 when he finished 10th, and his success at the venue can be easily explained. Wise uses TPC Summerlin as his home course and is coached by Jeff Smith - one of the head teaching pros at the property. It has been a rocky past few seasons for the Oregon product, but he might be trending in the right direction after finishing last week in 17th-place.

Lanto Griffin ($7,300)

There is a relatively solid built-in floor for Lanto Griffin, entering the week having made his last seven cuts. An 18th-place finish at TPC Summerlin in 2019 adds to the sanguinity, and it is not as if gamers are flocking to the 68th-ranked player in the world. Griffin should be someone to consider for cheap in cash-game contests, and his par-five scoring might help him to crack another top-25 result.

Luke List ($7,000)

Three straight top-20 results for Luke List in Vegas has turned the Vanderbilt product into a trendy sleeper this week. List has been shaky as of late, but his eighth-place result at the Corales Puntacana should add some optimism that the 141st-ranked player in the world can keep his streak alive in Sin City.

Adam Schenk ($6,900)

I realize we aren't talking about bank-breaking results, but DFS sites have refused to do much with Adam Schenk's price tag. The American has executed nine consecutive made cuts, but it has gone relatively unnoticed because of some subpar weekends. I will continue to play Schenk until he sees an increase that places him in the $7,000 range, and I believe he once again presents one of the better values on the board.

Chesson Hadley ($6,700)

It was a disappointing result for Chesson Hadley in Mississippi, but it might be a blessing in disguise if it allows us to grab last week's chalk at a quiet ownership total. Hadley has not finished worse than 18th in his last three trips to Vegas and has two top-seven results during that time frame.

Matt Jones ($6,600)

Ranked seventh in my model in par-five birdie or better percentage, Matt Jones also grades inside the top-25 in weighted Bentgrass putting + scrambling, sand save percentage and overall par-five scoring. Jones has produced two top-30 finishes at this week's venue during the last four years and also has made three cuts.

MJ Daffue ($6,500)

I wouldn't feel comfortable playing a ton of MJ Daffue, but there are a few things to like about his recent form. Daffue rides into the week off of a 12th-place showing at the Sanderson Farms, and he has birdied nearly 60% of his par-fives during the eight trackable rounds I have on him. A 72.22 GIR percentage has the South African as someone to keep an eye on going forward.

Beau Hossler ($6,500)

It is funny what two years can do to a young player. In 2018, I selected Beau Hossler to find his breakthrough victory in Vegas at odds of 55/1, and it feels as if everything has gone wrong for the Mission Viejo native since that moment. Hossler is a world-class putter when he gets it rolling, and we have gotten a small taste of that with him ranking third compared to the field over his last 100 rounds on Bentgrass greens.

Justin Suh ($6,200)

I think we sometimes don't realize how good a younger player is until their breakout performance happens on a bigger stage. After missing the first four cuts of 2020, Suh has delivered two top-25 finishes since the Barracuda, and none of it should come as that big of a surprise to the American after spending 26 weeks as the number one amateur in the world between 2018-2019.

 

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Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Shriners Open

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud of our weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Last weekend turned into a bit of a debacle with my selection of Sungjae Im, as I didn't realize I had already taken him earlier in the season at the Travelers Championship. I don't even have a good excuse for doing that with the event taking place after the restart, but I did catch a small break with Charley Hoffman's sixth-place finish being my alternate choice.

Unfortunately, not much changed at the top of the leaderboard for Josh and I after Joe earned a respectable $46,200 out of Doc Redman, and you can't help but feel as if this contest has been over for the last few weeks. However, with all that being said, you just never know. Josh has tried to sneak in Webb Simpson about four times throughout the year-long contest, and I have proven to be successful in terms of double-dipping in each of the past two seasons - (Brooks Koepka at the 2019 Tour Championship).  We will have to see if either one of us can pull off the bait-and-switch when it matters most.

 

One And Done Staff Picks Overview

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for a second season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

One and Done Selections - Shriners

Joe Nicely - Harris English

Alternate - Cameron Smith

The Shriners has morphed into one of the best events on the Swing Season schedule on an annual basis. This year it boasts its strongest-ever field as players prepare for the first leg of back-to-back tournaments in Las Vegas (the CJ Cup will be held at Shadow Creek next week).

Unfortunately for me, most of the elite options at the top of the board are no longer available to me in this marathon of an OAD contest. Guys like Bryson, Webb, Cantlay, and Morikawa are long gone for Team J-Nice. As a result, I’m going with a player who has been posting elite results, even though he doesn’t have quite the name recognition of some of the other stars in the field.

Harris English has been perhaps the most consistent golfer in the world this year. The Georgia Bulldog (Yuck! Go Vols!) made 18 of 20 cuts in the 2019-20 season with six top-10 finishes among those and he heads to Vegas on the heels of an impressive fourth-place showing in the U.S. Open. This week’s TPC Summerlin layout fits English’s precise, fairways-and-greens style perfectly and he logged a T4 on this layout back in 2017.

Yearly Earnings - $7,795,082

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/28

 

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Spencer Aguiar - Joaquin Niemann Jason Day

Alternate - Scottie Scheffler

I am in a position where I have to shoot for the moon and hope for the best with every selection. To me, that means upside golfers, and I feel as if my two best choices are Scottie Scheffler or Joaquin Niemann after already playing Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay and Sungjae Im (twice).

I realize we have a disparity in pricing for DFS and Vegas between these two, but I wouldn't look at that too closely when making your selection. Niemann is a golfer that should be 35-40/1 in this field, and I do think we are relatively close to what is proper on Scheffler. I have decided to save the American for somewhere else down the stretch and will try to grab him in a spot where he is back clicking on all cylinders after missing a few weeks with COVID.

Niemann is an intriguing choice for a few reasons. His ability to make birdies in bunches is rivaled by very few golfers in the world, and it shouldn't hurt his chances that Bentgrass has historically been the only surface he has been a positive expected putter per round. It will be important for the 47th-ranked player in the world to improve his par-five scoring output if he wants to compete for a title, but Niemann's long iron ability could quickly turn his scoring trajectory around if he can locate the fairway off the tee.

Yearly Earnings - $4,837,275

Yearly Cuts Made - 22/28

 

Josh Bennett - Rickie Fowler

Alternate - Matthew Wolff

Coming down to the wire here and I need a couple W’s to have a chance. I don’t have many big shots left, but I have a couple that can hopefully work some magic. Unfortunately, at the moment I’m not sure we can classify Rickie as a “big shot” based on his poor recent form (for a big shot’s standards, anyway), but he’s been re-tooling his swing a bit and has had some time off so I have a feeling his game could be in really good shape. Or, it could be in even worse shape. Either way, it’s a good play for me, he’s typically a world class player and in normal Rickie form he could top 5 this event with no problem (as he showed in 2018).

Good iron players and good putters are who I targeted this week in all other contests, and we know by know that Rickie is one of the best putters on tour and when he’s good it’s because of his irons and his putter. Needing a couple really good weeks in a row here, hopefully Rickie gets us started on the right foot.

Yearly Earnings - $4,275,189

Yearly Cuts Made - 24/28

 

Running Totals

Joe Nicely Spencer Aguiar Josh Bennett
Sony Open Webb Simpson $455,400 Abraham Ancer $27,390 Webb Simpson $455,400
American Express Sungjae Im $162,475 Paul Casey $63,399 Sungjae Im $162,475
Farmers Insurance Tiger Woods $181,875 Hideki Matsuyama $22,950 Jon Rahm $817,500
Waste Management Jon Rahm $170,768 Webb Simpson $1,314,000 Hideki Matsuyama $97,212
Pebble Beach Jason Day $382,200 Patrick Cantlay $181,350 Jason Day $382,200
Genesis Invitational Bubba Watson $0 Dustin Johnson $234,825 Dustin Johnson $234,825
WGC Mexico Dustin Johnson $45,500 Justin Thomas $320,667 Tommy Fleetwood $125,500
Puerto Rico Open Alex Noren $0 Jhonattan Vegas $75,750 Alex Noren $0
Honda Classic Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Tommy Fleetwood $483,000 Louis Oosthuizen $0
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rory McIlroy $330,731 Tony FInau $0 Xander Schauffele $72,424
Charles Schwab Rickie Fowler $0 Matt Kuchar $0 Patrick Reed $243,750
RBC Heritage Matt Kuchar $25,205 Justin Rose $129,575 Kevin Kisner $0
Travelers Championship Bryson DeChambeau $233,470 Sungjae Im $16,872 Bryson DeChambeau $233,470
Rocket Mortgage Viktor Hovland $131,875 Patrick Reed $0 Viktor Hovland $131,875
Workday Hideki Matsuyama $59,830 Rickie Fowler $59,830 Justin Rose $0
Memorial Patrick Cantlay $51,925 Xander Schauffele $171,585 Patrick Cantlay $51,925
3M Open Sam Burns $34,577 Bubba Watson $0 Tony Finau $250,800
WGC-St.Jude Daniel Berger $695,000 Collin Morikawa $106,200 Rory McIlroy $46,500
Barracuda Ryan Moore $69,475 Sam Burns $0 Denny McCarthy $20,883
PGA Championship Collin Morikawa $1,980,000 Daniel Berger $192,208 Brooks Koepka $69,500
Wyndham Championship Justin Rose $0 Billy Horschel $697,600 Paul Casey $37,440
Northern Trust Patrick Reed $23,169 Jason Day $0 Adam Scott $21,565
BMW Championship Scottie Scheffler $106,780 Tiger Woods $22,496 Collin Morikawa $106,780
Tour Championship Xander Schauffele $1,665,000 Rory McIlroy $280,090 Daniel Berger $186,850
Safeway Open Brendan Steele $41,391 Harold Varner III $41,391 Sam Burns $214,500
U.S. Open Tony Finau $302,236 Jon Rahm $101,797 Justin Thomas $302,236
Corales Puntacana Will Zalatoris $117,000 Patrick Rodgers $93,000 Kristoffer Ventura $9,580
Sanderson Doc Redman $46,200 Charley Hoffman $201,300 Will Zalatoris $0

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA DFS Vegas Report - Shriners Open (Premium Content)


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Zach Johnson Will Be A Popular Choice

With two top-eight results in his previous three events, Zach Johnson enters Sanderson Farms as the eighth-highest priced player at DraftKings with a salary of $9,600. Johnson's 14th-place showing here last season could provide even more optimism for those looking to back the American, but it is important to note that he ranks outside the top 80 compared to the field in both par-five birdie-or-better percentage and overall birdie or better rate. One could argue that he is better suited for a challenging test than a birdie fest, but that is a decision you will have to make. Johnson is currently projected to be around 10 percent owned on DraftKings.

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Can Sebastian Munoz Repeat In Mississippi?

After putting together a dazzling display during last year's Sanderson Farms Championship, Sebastian Munoz will look to repeat this weekend in Jackson, Mississippi. Munoz has provided five straight made cuts since the Wyndham Championship, which includes three top-20 showings throughout the FedExCup playoffs. The 76th-ranked player in the world should be considered one of the favorites to find the winner's circle on Sunday, and DraftKings agrees by placing him as the fifth option on the slate.

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Golf Analysis News - Fantasy Golf and PGA

Sungjae Im Looks To Regain Form

It has been a slow restart for Sungjae Im, who has only cracked the top 10 twice in his last 13 events. While all of that could be viewed as a potential problematic situation for the 22-year-old, Im has shown flashes of brilliance over his previous two starts, gaining 10.2 shots with his irons at the Tour Championship and U.S. Open. The 24th-ranked player in the world will look to keep that positive momentum rolling on his preferred Bermuda surface, however, he will still be a volatile GPP option at $10,500 at DraftKings.

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Louis Oosthuizen Not Playing At Sanderson Farms

Despite being priced as the second favorite on DraftKings, Louis Oosthuizen (undisclosed) has withdrawn from the Sanderson Farms. The South African's early removal from the field on Monday should be viewed as nothing more than a personal decision, but it is worth keeping a close eye on his status heading into the Las Vegas portion of the season next week. Doug Ghim ($6,700 on DraftKings) has been awarded his spot in the field but hasn't been a reliable option for most DFS gamers. Ghim has only made five of 14 cuts in the year 2020 but does bring some decent form into the week, having produced three made cuts in his last five events. The minimal price tag might make the American worth a small nibble, but he will have to improve his birdie rate if he wants to compete at a higher level.

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PGA DFS: Expert Roundtable - Sanderson Farms

Please enjoy this PGA Premium article free for a limited time.

Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining us for the Sanderson Farms! This is a new article that we're offering each week as part of our PGA Premium subscription, and we hope that you will find it useful.

Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

RotoBaller PGA Expert Roundtable

Sanderson Farms

The Expert Roundtable article is an attempt to get you inside the minds of our PGA DFS staff for every tournament.

Our four top golf writers - Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Josh Bennett, and Tommy Bell - will answer the same set of questions each week to give you an idea of how they are viewing the PGA DFS slate. Let's tee it up!

 

Who is your favorite DFS value play?

  • Joe Nicely: Adam Schenk ($6.7k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Charley Hoffman ($7,900), Adam Schenk ($6,700), Kristoffer Ventura ($7,200), J.B. Holmes ($7,000 - GPP ONLY)
  • Josh Bennett: Kristoffer Ventura (7,200)
  • Tommy Bell: Chesson Hadley (7,800)

 

Who is your favorite DFS “high priced” play?

  • Joe Nicely: Sungjae Im ($10.5k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im ($10,500)
  • Josh Bennett: Will Zalatoris (10,200)
  • Tommy Bell: Doc Redman ($9,700)

 

Who is your top GPP play?

  • Joe Nicely: Doc Redman ($9.7k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: J.B. Holmes ($7,000)
  • Josh Bennett: Dillon Frittelli (9,300)
  • Tommy Bell: Russell Knox ($7,500)

 

Who is your top Cash-Game play?

  • Joe Nicely: Cameron Davis ($8.1k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sebastian Munoz ($9,900)
  • Josh Bennett: Cameron Davis (8,100)
  • Tommy Bell: Patrick Rodgers ($8,200)

 

Which popular golfer will you be “fading”?

  • Joe Nicely: Benny An ($10k) & Sergio Garcia ($8.6k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Byeong Hun An ($10,000), Si Woo Kim ($8,400), Zach Johnson ($9,600)
  • Josh Bennett: Byeong Hun An
  • Tommy Bell: Scottie Scheffler ($11,400) - Strictly due to price/ownership/variance

 

What stands out as the most important stat for this golf course?

  • Joe Nicely: Birdie or Better %, SG: Par-5, Bermuda Putting 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Birdie or Better Percentage, Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage and Total Driving
  • Josh Bennett: SG: OTT
  • Tommy Bell: Par 5 Scoring, Bermuda Putting, SG: T2G

 

Who is your favorite DFS “dart throw”?

  • Joe Nicely: JJ Spaun & Sahith Theegala ($6.6k), Wes Bryan ($6.3k)
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sahith Theegala ($6,600), Jamie Lovemark ($6,100)
  • Josh Bennett: Robby Shelton (6,400)
  • Tommy Bell: Oh yeah. We’re all on Sahithhhhhh!!!

 

What is your favorite bet of the week? (Any type)

  • Joe Nicely: Doc Redman (-110) vs Ben An 
  • Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman +110 over Byeong Hun An
  • Josh Bennett: Sergio (55/1)
  • Tommy Bell: Doc Redman (33/1)

 

Make a “bold prediction” for this week:

  • Joe Nicely: Im, Redman, Zalatoris finish 1-2-3
  • Spencer Aguiar: More than half the players in the $9,000 range either miss the cut or finish outside the top-50.
  • Josh Bennett: Kevin Stadler makes the cut for the first time in a year
  • Tommy Bell: Only two of the top five DK priced players make the cut. Chaos!!

 

Who is your favorite overall DFS golfer and why?

  • Joe Nicely: Cameron Davis ($8.1k) - Nice combination of price, course fit, & recent form.
  • Spencer Aguiar: Charley Hoffman ($7,900) - Hoffman fits the mold of what we should be looking for in Mississippi. He brings with him current statistical success, form and course fit. Options like Schenk, Ventura and Holmes also bring some of that, but Hoffman has the most playability across the board. 
  • Josh Bennett: Cameron Davis (8,100) - cheap for how well he's been playing. Should fit the course well.
  • Tommy Bell: Chesson Hadley ($7,800) - Plenty of risk here, but that’s the same with almost every other player in the field. We’ve seen Hadley eat up easier courses of late, now we just need that putter to stay hot for a couple of days.

 

What is your optimal DFS lineup building strategy?

  • Joe Nicely: Stars & Scrubs due to weakness of $7k price range
  • Spencer Aguiar: Outside of Sebastian Munoz ($9,900) and Brian Harman ($9,400), I won’t have much exposure to the $9,000 range. 
  • Josh Bennett: Balanced
  • Tommy Bell: Plenty of mid to upper-range with a scrub or two mixed in. Don’t LOVE the top of the board.

 

Who is your pick to win the tournament?

  • Joe Nicely: Sungjae Im
  • Spencer Aguiar: Charley Hoffman 
  • Josh Bennett: Sungjae Im
  • Tommy Bell: Doc Redman

 

Is there a question you would like to have answered every week? Hit us up on Twitter @RotoBallerPGA. We would love to hear your feedback and ideas!

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Sanderson Farms

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Hudson Swafford entered the week having produced just one top-10 result in his previous 27 events, but you would never have known it with how he was able to close the show out on Sunday. Swafford clutched up late, making a 10-foot birdie putt at the 17th hole and finished the festivities with an eight-foot par putt on 18 to help get him his second career PGA Tour victory.

From an overall statistical perspective, the American put together a complete outing, ranking inside the top-15 compared to the field in driving accuracy, driving distance, sand save percentage and putts per GIR. The win gets Swafford into the 2021 Masters, Players Championship and PGA Championship, as well as an exemption through the 2023 PGA season.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sanderson Farms

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

Sanderson Farms - PGA DFS Overview

Country Club of Jackson

7,461  Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a rather unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by Donald Ross, the 18-hole layout used for the event was redesigned by John Fought and Mike Gogel in 2008 but still keeps many of the Ross principles that you would expect to see. Players will be required to work the ball both ways with doglegs going left and right, and the positioning and undulation of the greens will force golfers to hit shots to the correct side of the fairway.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. Players only hit about 54% of fairways, but the lack of rough shouldn't present issues for those that are unable to locate the short grass off the tee. All of that makes me believe a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be the way to go with Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ being the previous two winners, but a hot putter will be the key to success.

Typically, events like this are not my favorite when we have to rely on anything involving the flat stick, but I do believe I can pinpoint why putting is vital for the event. Bermuda greens feature less grain in the fall than the rest of the year, allowing strong putters to take advantage of a truer rolling surface. The issue with that narrative is that even though Munoz and Champ both dominated on the greens during their victories, neither should be considered an above-average putter. It places us right back into this narrative that we will need players who can get hot, and sometimes that can feel like throwing darts.

*** I have decided to weigh a combination of total driving and not just distance. I believe the Bermuda rough will have more impact than initially thought because of the fluffier lies impeding the amount of backspin you can get on the ball. I left in the original stance because I felt it was important to show changing your mind during the week is an entirely acceptable route to take. However, I will still be leaning more towards length over accuracy when weighing out the numbers. 

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat CC Of Jackson Tour Average
Driving Distance 281 282
Driving Accuracy 54% 62%
GIR Percentage 69% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 61% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.55 0.55

In Vegas, as of Monday, Scottie Scheffler leads the way at 10/1 and is followed by Sungjae Im at 14, Will Zalatoris at 18 and Sebastian Munoz and Sam Burns at 25/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Total Driving 20% (70% Distance - 30% Accuracy)
  • Bermuda Putting Last 100 17.5%
  • Par-Five Birdie or Better 17.5%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 15%
  • Proximity 125-175 15%
  • Proximity 200+ 15%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are four players this week priced above $10,000:

Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)

We get Scottie Scheffler back into the mix after he was forced to miss a few weeks after contracting COVID, but none of that seems to have derailed his likely win equity, according to DFS/betting sites. Scheffler enters the event as the 10/1 favorite to capture the title, and his $11,400 price tag on DraftKings paints a similar story when it comes to his chances to find success. It is challenging to argue against the 24-year-old from a statistical perspective, but it usually isn't my style to pay to the top of the betting board for a player that is still looking for his first PGA Tour title. However, all of that places us in a weird situation because of my disdain for most of the players in the $9,000 range, and it might equate to me owning more Scheffler than I originally anticipated.

Sungjae Im ($10,500)

Back to Bermuda and a venue that might emphasize Sungjae Im's birdie-making prowess, sign me up. While I acknowledge Scheffler is a better cash-game/head-to-head play because of his statistical consistency, Im becomes intriguing for the exact opposite reason in GPP tournaments. The South Korean has done most of his damage on Bermuda greens in the past, and we are all aware of the kind of fire he can catch when he is in the zone. Like Scheffler, I will not find myself overweight on many $9,000 options, meaning there will be room up top.

Will Zalatoris ($10,200)

Will Zalatoris bailed backers out at the Corales Puntacana with a final round 65, and it appears to be enough to generate support once again at the Sanderson Farms. Honestly, I don't have a strong take one way or the other on the American at his current price tag. It is in my nature to believe this is too much too quickly, but I am not going to beat the drum for why Zalatoris is an overvalued commodity. The 24-year-old has shown to be an outstanding golfer early in his career, and it is up to you to decide how to evaluate the information we have at our disposal. I will find myself relatively underweight compared to the field, but it doesn't mean I am correct with my stance.

Byeong Hun An ($10,000)

I'll have exposure to the first three golfers, but I can't say the same about Byeong Hun An. An's price tag of $10,000 is being directly influenced by his third-place showing at the venue last season, and I am never one to place much emphasis on course history - especially when there is only one tournament being used for our sample size. The South Korean's putting woes could get exposed on a truer rolling Bermuda surface, which in turn could dampen his birdie-making upside. An has only made three of his previous six cuts, and his three showings during that time frame that resulted in outcomes inside the top-22 still never cracked better than 12th place. Maybe he makes the cut; perhaps he even breaks the top-25 again. But I can't get myself to pay a top-four salary on a golfer who isn't ranked inside my top-10.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Sebastian Munoz ($9,900)

Sebastian Munoz enters the week at $9,900, and there is a lot to like about our defending champion from a statistical makeup once again. The Colombian grades inside the top-50 in every statistical metric I will be using to handicap the event this week, and it doesn't hurt matters that he has made his previous four cuts. Munoz's overall safety level places him as a player that can be considered in all game types.

Brian Harman ($9,400)

Did anyone else have fun going all-in with Brian Harman at the U.S. Open? In retrospect, one could argue that Winged Foot was slightly too long and hindered his performance down to a 38th place showing, but if we liked him there, we should still want him at the Country Club of Jackson. I question if Harman has enough firepower to take this event down, but his ability to scrap doesn't have me as worried about a missed cut as I am about other golfers in this range. In a tournament where there are a lot of unknowns, a top-25 outcome isn't the end of the world, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see him crack the top-10.

Patrick Rodgers ($8,200)

Patrick Rodgers sputtered after getting himself in contention at the Corales Puntacana, but an 11th place showing continued his quality run of seven straight made cuts. Look for his par-five scoring ability and Bermuda putting skills to keep the train rolling at the Sanderson Farms, and it feels like we have another decent spot to take advantage of a price tag that is just a little too small.

Cameron Davis ($8,100)

It doesn't surprise me that Cameron Davis is projected to be one of the slate's highest owned players. Ranked top-12 compared to the field in par-five birdie or better and overall birdie or better percentage, the Aussie has the firepower to attack this week's venue with his length. If you are looking for any downside, Davis ranks 123rd in the field for Bermuda putting, which should be viewed as a pretty substantial deterrent.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Charley Hoffman ($7,900)

I mentioned last weekend that Charley Hoffman had made a turn with his game by providing four top-25 finishes in his previous 10 tournaments, and you can add another tally to that total after the UNLV product posted a share of 14th place at the Corales Puntacana. We always give props to Hoffman for his ability to catch fire on Thursday's at major championships, and a venue like this provides him with an opportunity to do that for four days potentially.

Charl Schwartzel ($7,800)

I don't want to get too caught up on my small sample size of statistics on Charl Schwartzel because my database doesn't include any of his European form, but his showing at the Safeway Open was enough to have him crack my top-five for the week. Schwartzel is volatile, but his upside in GPPs does have him as someone worth considering at about a five percent ownership projection.

Chesson Hadley ($7,800)

Chesson Hadley's two missed cuts at the property might lessen his projected ownership total on DraftKings, but it is important to note that he also has a second-place result squeezed in between those two products. Hadley's four straight made cuts entering the week does have me more confident than I typically would be about where his game is at heading into the tournament, and he ranks ninth in overall birdie or better percentage.

Hudson Swafford ($7,300)

I don't consider Hudson Swafford's victory last weekend to be a fluke, as I did recommend him as a top-20 wager in my Vegas Report. DraftKings doesn't seem to agree by placing him down at just $7,300 for his follow-up contest, but I won't complain in taking a price tag that feels extremely reduced. There is no reason for Swafford to be under $8,000 in salary.

Kristoffer Ventura ($7,200)

I understand that we have a moderately stronger field from what we were given at Corales Golf Club last weekend, but some of the price reductions are overwhelming on individual golfers. To me, this contest still is reduced from an overall skill standpoint, and I can't seem to understand what has caused Kristoffer Ventura to drop from $9,200 to his current going rate of $7,200. His 52nd-place showing last weekend was disappointing, no doubt, but consider this an ideal spot to jump back into the fray on the Oklahoma State product.

J.B Holmes ($7,000)

High risk, high reward; that is the best way to describe J.B. Holmes, who is slowly getting back into the groove of things after dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of action from July to the Safeway Open. Holmes put together a 46th-place result in Napa Valley and will look to build off that result at the Sanderson Farms. Consider his GPP upside to be intriguing.

Adam Schenk ($6,700)

What did Adam Schenk do to go from $8,500 last weekend to his current price of $6,700? I understand Schenk has lacked some upside as of late, but eight straight made cuts is not the easiest thing to come by in the sub-$7,000 range. His seventh-place showing here in 2018 to go along with his two top-43 appearances in 2019 and 2017 should be all that you need to know that the American is one of the most mispriced options on the board.

Vincent Whaley ($6,600)

Three top-37 results for Vincent Whaley has the 25-year-old PGA Tour rookie trending in the right direction, and he will look to cement his status with another robust effort this weekend. Whaley has been on record that his college teammate at Georgia Tech (Ollie Schniederjans) was the reason behind his improvement, and I am never going to be one that goes against what the incomparable Ollie says or does.

Sahith Theegala ($6,600)

After having his college experience cut short because of COVID-19, Sahith Theegala has started to gain momentum on the PGA Tour with two consecutive top-41 results - including a 14th place showing at the Safeway Open. Earlier in the year, Theegala won the Haskins, Ben Hogan and Jack Nicklaus awards while in college at Pepperdine, becoming just the fifth person ever to win all three in the same year.

Jamie Lovemark ($6,100)

After missing four PGA Tour cuts in a row, Jamie Lovemark has put together back-to-back weekends at the Safeway Open and Corales Puntacana. Both finishes were marred by Saturday or Sunday implosions, but Lovemark is beginning to regain some of the same form that saw him crack the top-100 players in 2018.

Hunter Mahan ($6,000)

It has been a long road back for Hunter Mahan, who continues to struggle with six missed cuts in seven events during 2020. None of those issues have technically gone away, but Mahan showed a little life during his missed cut at the Safeway Open, posting impressive numbers across the board. The six-time PGA Tour winner might be able to carry some of that momentum into a venue where he has not missed a cut since 2017, and his Bermuda putting skills should add another wrinkle of hope.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big in 2020.



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PGA Betting Advice - Sanderson Farms

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (74-39-8), netting over 42 units of profit and nearly a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

 

Special Bonus - Spencer's Free Cheat Sheet

Check out my brand new PGA Weekly Cheatsheet.

There you will find a plethora of information, including course history, current form and statistical data. If you would like to change any of the weights entered onto the spreadsheet, make a copy of your own under the file tab and get started on your research today!

 

Head-To-Head Selection 

Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Most people are taking Hudson Swafford's victory at Corales Puntacana to be an aberrational result, but I am not. Swafford was included in last week's premium top-20 recommendations during my Vegas Report article, and the alumni out of the University of Georgia continues to be an underrated commodity this weekend in Jackson, Mississippi. Rory Sabbatini is getting a little too much credit for his two top-60 finishes here in his last two attempts, and the five consecutive showings outside the top-59 are starting to present a poor case for the 107th-ranked player in the world.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

This is a much bigger recommendation than I typically suggest for this article and only is being included here because of the selection I have on tap in my Vegas Report. For all intents and purposes, this wager qualifies as a premium head-to-head bet. If we are looking for any negatives, Swafford isn't exactly a beacon of consistency, but I am willing to overlook those flaws because of Sabbatini's statistical atrocity as of late. I'd have priced this correctly at -140, meaning we are gaining around a six percent edge in terms of implied probability.

1.25 Units to Win 1.14

 

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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (14-12-3)

0.82 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponents Finish Result Total
Sanderson Farms Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T18 (-11) MC (+4) Win 1
Safeway Open Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T7 (-12) MC (+2) Win 1
Shriners Open Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) 61 (-9) Loss -1.15
Houston Open Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 MC (+3) MC (+3) Push 0
Mayakoba Classic Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T48 (-5) T76 (+1) Win 1.1
RSM Classic Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-13) MC (-3) Win 1
Sony Open J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T21 (-5) Loss -1.1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T21 (-6) T68 (+1) Win 1
Waste Management Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+5) MC (+6) Win 1
Pebble Beach Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) MC (E) Win 1
Genesis Invitational Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 MC (+4) MC (+6) Win 1.44
WGC Mexico Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 T53 (+3) T6 (-13) Loss -1
Honda Classic Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+8) T11 (-1) Loss -1.2
Charles Schwab Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-6) Loss -1.1
RBC Heritage Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth .90 Units to Win 0.62 T14 (-16) T68 (-4) Win 0.62
Travelers Championship Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 MC (-2) MC (-2) Push 0
Rocket Mortgage Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 T12 (-14) T21 (-13) Win 1.17
Workday Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+14) T39 (-4) Loss -1.2
3M Open Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 MC (-1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 MC (+1) T32 (-10) Loss -1.2
3M Open Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -1.15
3M Open Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 T41 (-9) T32 (-10) Loss -1.15
PGA Championship Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 T13 (-7) T13 (-7) Push 0
Wyndham Championship Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T9 (-16) T59 (-5) WIn 1
Northern Trust Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 T58 (-6) T44 (-8) Loss -1.35
Safeway Open Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 T14 (-15) T29 (-13) Win 1.32
U.S. Open Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 T23 (+10) MC (+14) Win 1.17
Corales Puntacana Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 T41 (-6) T21 (-9) Win -1.2

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

24-22-0 (+4.74 Units)

Tournament Head-to-Head Bet Bet My Picks Finish Opponent Finish Result Total
Sony Open Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T45 (-1) MC (+5) Win 1
Sony Open Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T32 (-3) T53 (E) Win 1
Sony Open Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (-2) T4 (-9) Loss -1.1
Sony Open Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 3rd (-10) MC (+3) Win 1.6
Sony Open Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 MC (+4) T21 (-5) Loss -1
American Express Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 T43 (-12) MC (-6) Win 1
American Express Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T17 (-16) 72 (-6) Win 1
American Express Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T10 (-18) T17 (-16) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 1st (-15) T55 (-1) Win 1
Farmers Insurance Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+3) T16 (-7) Loss -1
Farmers Insurance Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 T49 (-2) T3 (-12) Loss -1
Waste Management Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 T49 (-3) T9 (-11) Loss -1
Waste Management Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 1st (-17) T9 (-11) Win 1.6
Waste Management Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 MC (E) T9 (-11) Loss -1.15
Pebble Beach Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 MC (-2) MC (-1) Win 0.67
Pebble Beach Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 T64 (+3) T11 (-7) Loss -0.5
Pebble Beach Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 MC (-1) T55 (E) Loss -0.6
Genesis Invitational Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 67th (+10) MC (+3) Win 1.1
WGC Mexico Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 11th (-11) T51 (+2) Win 1.15
Honda Classic Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T8 (-2) MC (+6) Win 1
Arnold Palmer Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 MC (+5) WD Win 0.73
Arnold Palmer Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 MC (+7) T9 (+1) Loss -0.75
Arnold Palmer Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 3rd (-2) T15 (+3) Win 0.76
Charles Schwab Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 MC (+6) T7 9-13) Loss -0.75
RBC Heritage Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 MC (+6) MC (+1) Loss -0.75
Memorial Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T13 (+1) Loss -1
Memorial Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 T54 (+9( MC (+5) Win 1
Memorial Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 MC (+4) T22 (+3) Loss -0.88
Memorial Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 T38 (+5) T22 (+3) Loss -1.1
3M Open Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 T62 (-3) T41 (-9) Loss -0.5
3M Open Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (+1) MC (-1) Loss -0.7
3M Open Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 MC (E) T41 (-9) Loss -0.7
Wyndham Championship Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 T9 (-16) MC (E) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 T15 (-14) T51 (-6) Win 0.7
Wyndham Championship Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 MC (+2) T3 (-18) Loss -0.65
Northern Trust Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T8 (-15) T49 (-7) Win 0.7
Northern Trust Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley 0.77 Units to win 0.70 MC (+8) T8 (-15) Loss -0.77
Northern Trust Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson 0.74 Units to win 0.70 MC (+3) T6 (-16) Loss -0.74
Tour Championship Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na 0.80 Units to win 0.70 T18 (-5) T27 (+1) Win 0.7
Tour Championship Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl 0.85 Units to win 1.20 T24 (E) 30 (+4) Win 1.2
Tour Championship Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson 0.65 Units to win 1.11 T12 (-9) 1 (-21) Loss -0.65
Tour Championship Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson 0.45 Units to win 1.22 T2 (-18) 1 (-21) Loss -0.45
Corales Puntacana Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners 0.7 Units to win 0.70 T28 (-8) MC (+2) Win 0.7
Corales Puntacana Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder 0.70 Units to win 0.77 T33 (-7) T52 (-5) Win 0.77
Corales Puntacana Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III 0.70 Units to win 0.70 5 (-14) MC (E) Win 0.7

2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Player Event Odds Finish Position
Cameron Smith Sony Open 55 1
Patrick Reed WGC Mexico 50 1
Sungjae Im Honda Classic 35 1
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship 30 1
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open 33 1
Abraham Ancer American Express 50 2
Abraham Ancer RBC Heritage 125 2
Billy Horschel Wyndham Championship 33 2
Justin Thomas Tour Championship 6 2
Max Homa 3M Open 80 3
Hideki Matsuyama BMW Championship 40 3
Bud Cauley American Express 110 4
Adam Hadwin Rocket Mortgage 70 4
Bryson DeChambeau PGA Championship 33 4
Tony Finau PGA Championship 33 4
Jason Day PGA Championship 66 4
Joaquin Niemann Sentry TOC 50 5
Joaquin Niemann RBC Heritage 200 5
Justin Thomas WGC Mexico 11 6
Xander Schauffele WGC-St.Jude 22 6
Jon Rahm Northern Trust 16 6
Dustin Johnson Sentry TOC 10 7
Russell Henley Honda Classic 100 8
Maverick McNealy Rocket Mortgage 100 8
Tony Finau Memorial 66 8
Webb Simpson U.S. Open 50 8
Luke List Corales Puntacana 66 8
Patrick Reed Wyndham Championship 16 9
Xander Schauffele ZOZO Championship 25 10
Andrew Putnam American Express 66 10
Dustin Johnson Genesis Invitational 15 10
Xander Schauffele PGA Championship 35 10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets
(16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

 

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

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Can Luke List Win First PGA Tour Title?

Still searching for his first career PGA Tour title, Luke List got a taste of finding the winner's circle earlier in the year when he took down the Korn Ferry Challenge at TPC Sawgrass in June. While the strength of the field isn't quite up to par with the overall level of player we have in front of us for the Corales Puntacana, the American was able to outlast this week's favorite Will Zalatoris, as well as Kristoffer Ventura on his way to his second Korn Ferry win of his career. List has a big-hitting style that can pick apart this week's venue, and he might only be a decent putter away from ending his long drought.