RADIO
Call it the Minkah Fitzpatrick Bowl.
In a game that isn’t likely to reach instant classic status, the winless Miami Dolphins are in Pittsburgh to take on the 2-4 Steelers on Monday night. It doesn’t much matter if the game is a classic, though, because even bad teams present opportunities to take advantage when making prop picks.
The Dolphins, while winless, have shown signs of life recently and you never know when Ryan Fitzpatrick will unleash a big game. On the Steelers’ side, they struggled early but invested in their team (including a deal with Miami to acquire defensive back Fitzpatrick) and it would be nearly disastrous to lose this home game. But the Steelers are heavily-favored and that should help guide expectations for this game.
Here are some angles to keep in mind when making Monday night prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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MIAMI-PITTSBURGH
OVER/UNDERS
Mason Rudoph UNDER 240.5 PASSING YARDS – The Dolphins only allow an average of 256.5 passing yards per game, but that total is lowered somewhat by the fact that Miami is lowing every week and opposing teams are running out the clock. Rudolph has missed a couple of weeks due to a concussion but returns to the lineup having passed for 646 yards on 94 attempts. If he throws 31 times, at that rate, Rudolph would come in around 215 yards and that seems a reasonable base line in a game in which the Steelers should be able to move the ball without forcing Rudolph to air it out down the field.
Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 229.5 PASSING YARDS – With Fitzmagic back under center the Dolphins do have a little more potential to put up numbers in the passing game. Pittsburgh is a middle of the pack pass defense, allowing 244.5 passing yards per game on 6.8 yards per pass, but the likely circumstances of the game – ie. Pittsburgh leading and Miami likely playing catch-up – drives the decision to take Fitzpatrick for at least 230 passing yards.
Diontae Johnson UNDER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS – The third-round pick out of Toledo is trying to establish himself as a reliable secondary receiving and while he’s had some decent games, he’s also managed a total of 41 yards on seven catches in the past two games.
Mark Walton OVER 43.5 RUSHING YARDS – With Kenyan Drake apparently on the way out of Miami, opportunity knocks for Walton, who gained 66 yards on 14 carries at Buffalo last week and goes against a Steelers Defense that is fairly average, allowing 110.2 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry. The Dolphins may not be in position to run the ball a whole lot but this is a manageable number to hit.
RAPID FIRE
Preston Williams +1.5 receptions vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh’s No. 1 receiver is dealing with an illness and had one catch for seven yards last week but Rudolph’s return to action ought to help raise Smith-Schuster’s production. On the other hand, Williams has been a significant target in the Miami passing game, catching 23 passes on 44 targets in six games, including a season-high six catches for 82 yards last week against Buffalo. That might be enough to keep Williams close.
Mark Walton +34.5 rushing yards vs. James Conner – The sneaky play here is to take Walton because Conner is a very productive receiver and that means he can contribute without huge rushing totals. He’s gained more than 50 yards on the ground just once all season (55 against Baltimore in Week Five) so if Walton has any rushing yards it will make it difficult for Conner to cover this number.
Devante Parker -0.5 receptions vs. Diontae Johnson – Parker is turning into a minor threat for the Dolphins, scoring a touchdown in three straight games. He’s put up 15 catches on 24 targets in the past four games and, playing for the team that should be trailing, he’ll likely have more opportunities to catch the ball in this matchup.
More Weekly DFS Analysis
