RADIO
This is a fascinating NFC West matchup, because San Francisco has a dominant defense that should impose some limits on Arizona’s production and the Cardinals Defense is suspect enough that it could open the door for more 49ers production.
San Francisco wins week-in and week-out and they are doing a lot of it on the ground, running for 181.1 yards per game, which ranks second behind only Baltimore. Can the Cardinals keep that running game in check?
On the other hand, the Cardinals have some offensive upside, with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald the prime targets for rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and former Miami Dolphin Kenyan Drake coming in to bolster the banged-up backfield. But they’re going against a 49ers Defense that has been a buzz-saw this season and it’s possible that it remains a buzz-saw against Arizona.
Here are some angles to consider before making your Thursday night prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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SAN FRANCISCO-ARIZONA
OVER/UNDERS
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS – In 15 starts for the 49ers, Garoppolo has averaged 235.4 passing yards per game and has been held under 250 yards in each of his past four starts, but the Cardinals are giving up 277 passing yards per game which ranks 29th in the league. Is that enough for Jimmy G to let loose or will he even need to in order to get the win?
Kyler Murray UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS – Arizona’s rookie quarterback has been impressive, though there have naturally been ups and downs over the course of the season. He’s averaging 248.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 221 in five of eight starts. On the other hand, he’s been held to 220 or fewer passing yards in back-to-back weeks and the Cardinals are hosting a 49ers team that is allowing just 128.7 passing yards per game and 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That’s a dominant defense and even if the Cardinals need to throw more as they try to overcome an expected deficit, it may still be difficult for Murray to put up the necessary yardage.
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 54.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Bringing in a proven veteran like Sanders gives the 49ers a serious boost in the passing game. He’s a proven performer and can offer more than he did in his first game with San Francisco last week when he had four catches for 25 yards and a touchdown. In the four games in which Sanders has been targeted at least six times this season, Sanders has put up at least 60 receiving yards in each of those games.
Tevin Coleman OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS – This is not an easy number to hit, as Coleman has rushed for 71 or more yards twice in five games this season, but with Matt Breida dealing with an ankle injury there could be more touches for Coleman and going against a Cardinals defense that is allowing 130.1 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per rushing attempt isn’t enough reason to believe that they will be able to keep Coleman under wraps.
George Kittle UNDER 6.5 RECEPTIONS – As terrific as Kittle is, and he can be a difference maker whenever the Niners need him to be, he has grabbed at least seven receptions in just two games so far this season. Essentially, if the 49ers need to feed Kittle the ball then they can but they probably won’t need to.
RAPID FIRE
Tevin Coleman -31.5 rushing yards vs. Kenyan Drake – Coleman is a big-play threat for a really good team and should get plenty of touches. While Drake is an intriguing play, getting a new opportunity away from Miami, he still has to go up against the 49ers defense and that can snuff out any optimism in short order.
Emmanuel Sanders +19.5 receiving yards vs. George Kittle – This requires some projection, because Sanders has not put up huge numbers but if he is capable of going for 50-60 yards that would make it challenging for Kittle to cover.
Christian Kirk +2.5 receptions vs. George Kittle – The Cardinals receiver has had double-digit targets in three of his five games this season, and even if the 49ers play stifling defense – because they probably will – it would still come as no surprise if the Cardinals are prepared to throw to Kirk, at least enough to keep him within a couple of catches of Kittle.
