The Misconception of Speed: How Overreaction Affects Fantasy Value

With the NFL Scouting Combine testing come and gone, we now have numbers that can be applied to the incoming prospects. Each year, the excitement builds as the desire to water the tastebuds of fantasy football is needed. Draft gurus and team scouts ascend onto Indianapolis to gain confirmation on the hours of film work and study that they've done on the prospects to gauge just where they fit into the draft. The Combine is only a small part of the process but so much weight seems to be applied to it in determining a player's value.

The trap that we all seem to put ourselves into is placing importance on a player's 40-yard dash time. If a prospect sets an amazing time then the general conception is he will rise up the draft board and is destined for fantasy stardom. Conversely, if a top prospect heading into the combine fails to record a great time, evaluators begin to knock the player and call for his impending doom.

In a society fixated on speed and instant gratification nowadays, the faster the number the better. It's a falsehood that I see more and more analysts subscribe to and it can give fantasy owners misconceptions on a player's true value going into draft season. When it boils down to it, does the 40-yard dash time truly breed success in the NFL? Can a faster time set a player up for success? Will a slower time honestly keep a player on the bench due to a lack of separation? Let's take a look at some of the fastest runners at the combine and try to dispel the thoughts on player valuing as you move forward in your preparations for the 2020 season.

What's In a 40 Time?

Why not start things off at the top with John Ross and Donte Stallworth? Both players recorded a 4.22 in the 40 and immediately their stocks rose on draft boards. Stallworth enjoyed a solid collegiate career at the University of Tennessee and on the strength of his 40, he was taken off the board 13th overall by the Saints. His rookie season he saw mixed success with 42 receptions for 594 yards and eight TD (his career-high). In his 10 seasons, he never amassed over 945 yards and was never relied on as a team's go-to WR1 in a passing attack.

Ross, on the other hand, was a prospect that was oft-injured as he headed to Indy. Most evaluators were not too high on him and saw him as a one-trick pony during the study process. But after the blazing 40 time, he shot up draft boards and became a hot commodity to talk up assuming he would be the next big thing in fantasy. Three seasons into the NFL, Ross has missed 24 games due to injury and failed to haul in more than 28 catches in a season. The seven TD on 21 catches in 2018 may have been an anomaly, but was a hope for many fantasy owners that he was starting to put things together. But at the end of the day, he has just been an extremely fast player whose all-around skill set has yet to develop at the next level.

Another speedster entering the league was Chris Johnson. His 4.24 time shot him up draft boards and the Titans pulled the trigger on him at 24th overall in 2008. He went on to secure three straight Pro Bowl appearances and even rushed for 2,006 yards and 16 total TD on his way to securing a larger contract. His fantasy MVP campaign brought him a $53mil contract but that would go on to be the last we would enjoy from Johnson. Released by the Titans in 2014, he went on to play for the Jets and Cardinals but his work ethic was gone and he slowly faded out of the league. Johnson is the biggest success story of the fastest players from the Combine, but his success seemed like a flash as his fantasy value came and went so quickly.

Some of the other players to impress at the combine with top times in the 40-yard dash is a mixed bag of potential never met. Players like Marquise Goodwin, J.J. Nelson, Jerome Mathis, and Dri Archer all saw their names become brighter after their workouts in Indy. But as they made the transition to the NFL, those speeds were never coupled with results on the field. Fantasy owners and NFL teams would still be intrigued by the speeds, but the production would never follow.

Evaluating the 2020 Class Realistically

Now the 2020 combine is in full swing and so is the thought process on player values as the 40-yard dash times are compiled. Henry Ruggs was the talk of football circles heading in as a player that would push John Ross' time and he came ever so close with his 4.27. Causing the overreaction to swell. I've already seen some proclaim that he should be in the conversation with top players Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy because of his athletic ability.

Don't get me wrong, I like Ruggs and what he can bring to the table, but his overall skill set is not as well rounded as the other two. Ruggs will see his value climb but does his 4.27-time correlate to immediate success in fantasy? Will he become a player that will post 100 catches, 10-TD seasons consistently? That I do not believe. He will have bursts of great play, but I can't foresee him becoming a surefire WR1 in fantasy.

Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool are two other players that extremely impressed analysts in Indy. It's a tale of two different players here. Mims is a prospect that was not overly productive at Baylor but has seen his stock rise since the Senior Bowl. His testing at the combine only confirms his ascension to be included among the tops in this class. Claypool wowed scouts with his time based purely off of his size. Not a lot has been talked about with Claypool heading in, but his test scores have raised many eyebrows and could make him a player that gets drafted sooner than we were thinking just a week ago.

On the RB side of things, Jonathan Taylor was talked about as the potential RB1 of this class heading to Indy and he did not disappoint. His 4.39 40, along with everything he excelled in during testing, has cemented him as the top back in this class and will make him one of the first names off the board in dynasty drafts for the 2020 season. This is one of the times where the speed testing is getting it right and not an overreaction.

Cam Akers, on the other hand, was on the outside looking in, in terms of being included among the top names at the position. But his 4.47 40-yard dash was the beginning of a very impressive combine. Now he sees his name vault up draft boards and rightfully so. The game film shows a prospect that was doomed by the talent around him. The fact that he produced as well as he did is an indicator of potential success.

Now as we look at the flip side of the coin, players that did not impress with their run times tend to get knocked by analysts. The overall perception of players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zack Moss, and Laviska Shenault was somewhat high heading into Indy. But after "slower" 40 times were recorded, the talk had already begun on their diminishing values. But their production at the college level as well as game film shows players that will be able to find success in the league. If you have league mates that will allow you to draft these players in dynasty at a lesser price, jump all over it and celebrate it at a later time.

Just look at some of the names in the league that has gone on to Hall of Fame careers after posting slow speed scores. Both Jerry Rice and Larry Fitzgerald posted 4.7 40-yard dash times but were near impossible to defend in the NFL. Players like Le'Veon Bell and Kareem Hunt ran 4.6 40s and been great players in fantasy and have found themselves as top players drafted at their positions during their peak years.

This misconception of speed is commonplace in today's analytical world but it comes with the territory. "The faster the better" is typically how our minds work. But when it comes to projecting a player's fantasy value, speed should only be a piece of the puzzle. Use it as a building block for a player's potential. Because moving a player up and down your draft board simply on one 40-yard dash time could cause you to grab a player in drafts that will eventually become an albatross on your fantasy roster.

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