Four Late-Round Fliers for Runs

Run production is a valuable stat in all fantasy baseball formats, but it is not always an easy stat to predict. Locating solid run production late in drafts becomes even more difficult.

Ideally, you want players who will hit at the top of lineups that are expected to score plenty of runs and can get on base at a solid clip. Now, this may sound obvious to most, but locating players like this later in drafts can be quite difficult, as so many of them tend to be drafted early.

This article will lay out a few players that fit into this mold, as well as a few players that could either find themselves in this situation or are on the verge of a possible breakout. In any event, each of these players should be able to provide run value to fantasy owners in the later rounds of drafts.

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY)

Gardner may be getting up there in age, but his run-scoring opportunities are not diminishing. In 2019, Gardner slashed .251/.325/.503 with 28 HR and 86 runs scored at the age of 35. He was able to put up this run production despite a majority of his at-bats coming out of the sixth and ninth spots in the batting order.

The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is one of, if not the main reason, that we see home runs from Gardner, but his ability to consistently get on base is why he should have success scoring runs in 2020. While Gardner may have only put up a .325 OBP in 2019, he has a career OBP of .342. One of the key reasons for this is his ability to make zone contact, as well as chase contact, as noted by his plate discipline metrics.

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Another reason Gardner should be able to get on base at a solid clip and score runs is his walk rate. In 2019, Gardner put up a walk rate of 9.5%, which was 1.2% above the league average. He also has a career walk rate of 10.4%, so we could see this increase in 2020.

Gardner's speed is also not something to be overlooked. In 2019, he ranked in the 91st percentile with a sprint speed of 28.9 ft/sec, which allowed him to steal 10 bases while only being caught twice. His ability to steal bags and go first-to-third will certainly come in handy for run production in 2020.

With the injury to Aaron Judge, Gardner is now projected to bat second in the Yankees' lineup. While we do not yet know the timetable for Judge's return, we do know that Gardner is capable of scoring runs, even if he is eventually pushed down in the lineup, as he scored 57 runs from the sixth spot on down in 2019. Batting second (in a lineup that led baseball in runs scored in 2019) to begin the season will only bolster his run-scoring value.

Gardner currently has an ADP of 297, which means that he is being taken near the end of round 24 in most 12-team mixed leagues. Fantasy owners looking for run production at the end of their drafts should feel comfortable selecting Gardner here.

Kevin Newman (SS, PIT)

The Pirates may not be a very good team in 2020, but that doesn't mean that they don't have a few valuable assets for fantasy purposes. Newman is one of these assets that should have a solid season atop the Pirates' lineup. In 2019, Newman slashed .308/.353/.446 with 12 HR, 61 R, and 16 SB in 493 at-bats. It was a strong performance for a guy who missed nearly a month due to a finger laceration. He derives most of his value from his ability to get on base, which is a direct result of his plate discipline. While he does have a bit above average chase rate, he more than makes up for it with his ability to put the ball in play when he does chase. This is noted by his 11.1% strikeout rate, which ranked him in the top three percent of the league in 2019.

Newman also shows a great ability to hit all mixes of pitches, as noted by his pitch tracking metrics. He had a wOBA well above .300 vs. every type of pitch and did not hit less than .292 vs. any single pitch.

Being able to hit like this and get on base at such a high clip should certainly help him score runs in 2020. We would certainly like to see his walk rate increase from the 5.3% that he posted in 2019, but he only posted a seven percent walk rate across five seasons in the Minors. That being said, we could see his BABIP increase from the .333 that we saw last season due to his speed. Newman had a sprint speed of 28.5 ft/sec, which ranked him in the 84th percentile of the league. This is what allowed him to steal 16 bags, and should also help him score runs.

Newman is projected to hit leadoff, and while the Pirates are not an explosive offense, his run production should still be solid from this spot. Also, you do not have a pay a high premium for him as he currently has an ADP of 214, which means he is being drafted near the end of the 17th round in most 12-team mixed leagues. He should provide plenty of value for owners looking to acquire runs near the end of their draft.

Shin-Soo Choo (DH/OF, TEX)

Choo may be heading into the twilight of his career, but he can still provide fantasy owners with plenty of value in terms of run production. In 2019, Choo slashed .265/.371/.455 with 24 HR, 93 R, and 15 SB in 563 at-bats. While he may not have the best average for a leadoff hitter, he manages a strong OBP thanks in large part to his double-digit walk rate. In 2019, he managed an 11.8% walk rate, which plays into his career walk rate of 12.3%.

Aside from having a solid walk rate, he is also able to get on base thanks to his ability to hit the ball hard. In 2019, Choo managed an 8.8% barrel rate, 91.3 mph exit velocity, and 49% hard-hit rate. All were above league average and the hard-hit rate ranked him in the top five percent of the league.

Choo is the opposite of Newman in the fact that he has a higher strikeout rate (25%) than we would prefer, but the fact that he walks as much as he does more than makes up for it. His batting average of .265 in 2019 was 10 points lower than his career average, however, it was his highest average since 2015 when he hit .276. The lowered average has also not cost him a ton of run production, as he has scored at least 90 runs in three of his previous four full seasons.

Choo is projected to hit leadoff vs. both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, which certainly helps his value. The Rangers ranked 12th in all of baseball in 2019 in terms of runs scored with a total of 810. That was without a full season of Joey Gallo. They have also added Todd Frazier at third base and should see production from young prospect, Nick Solak. By all accounts, this offense should be improved from 2019, and therefore, Choo could see his run production increase.

He currently has an ADP of 244, which makes him a middle of the 20th-round pick in most 12-team mixed leagues. This is beyond solid value for Choo. Assuming that he stays healthy, fantasy owners should have a built-in floor of 80-85 runs scored. He has also finished as a top-100 player the previous two seasons in terms of total production. If you find yourself needing runs late (and even a little power), you should strongly consider Choo.

Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM)

Nimmo is a solid rebound candidate who should provide plenty of run-scoring value in 2020. He was limited to just 199 at-bats in 2019 due to a bulging disc in back, so to gauge his value in 2020, it is best we examine his last full season, which was '18. That year, Nimmo slashed .263/.404/.483 with 17 HR, 77 R, and nine SB in 433 at-bats over 140 games.

While Nimmo won't blow you away with his batting average, he won't necessarily hurt you with it either. He has ridiculous on-base skills as noted by his .404 OBP in 2018 and he also put up a .375 OBP through limited action in '19. He can do this despite a career strikeout rate near 27% in large part because of his walk rate. In '18, Nimmo put up a walk rate of 15%, which ranked him in the top six percent of the league. He also has a career walk rate of 15.2%. The reason his walk rate is so high is because of his ridiculously low chase rate over his career, as noted by his plate discipline metrics.

Some of Nimmo's run-scoring ability comes from his speed as well. He has a sprint speed of 28.5 ft/sec, which ranks him in the 84th percentile of the league. It also resulted in him stealing nine bags in 2018. This should also help his ability to go first-to-third and put himself in a position to score in more situations.

Nimmo is projected to hit leadoff vs. right-handed pitching. In 2018, he managed a solid .275/.424/.521 vs. righties, which is exceptional as far as getting on base is concerned. The Mets ranked 13th in the league with 791 runs scored in '19. They could be even better in 2020, especially if J.D. Davis and Amed Rosario live up to their expectations. Nimmo currently has an ADP of 311, which means he likely is not being drafted unless the league has a very deep bench. He makes for a solid selection with your last pick if you find yourself short on runs.

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