ADP Reflections: Edwin Diaz and Jose Leclerc

Opening Day may be delayed, but fantasy baseball draft season is still in full swing. We’re now at the point where draft data is shaping draft strategies, as owners look for value relative to ADP.

The sample of ADP available from early NFBC drafts has given us a good basis to ascertain if certain players are being drafted too high, considering their projections and expectations. The same can be said if they’re being undervalued and drafted later than their projections suggest they should be.

In some cases, a player's projection may seem a bit generous or a bit stingy, which is driving a player’s ADP. Two such relief pitchers are Edwin Diaz and Jose Leclerc.

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

Diaz’s current ADP on NFBC is 121 and he’s the eighth reliever being taken in drafts right now. It’s hard to find a current closer who had such contrasting seasons than Diaz had in 2018 and '19. As a Seattle Mariner, Diaz had a historic '18 season before moving to New York in a trade involving Robinson Cano, who joined Diaz with the Mets. He bombed in his first season with New York, as you can see from the below comparison of his last two seasons:

While the difference in Diaz’s two seasons is stark, it’s difficult to find a reason for it. The drop in Diaz’s strikeout rate (K%) from 44.3% to 39% might seem like a big cause for the ERA jump, but his K% last year was still sixth-best among all pitchers with 50+ IP. The five better than him? Josh Hader, Nick Anderson, Kirby Yates, Ken Giles and Gerrit Cole. Diaz's SIERA suggests that he was very unlucky, but even if his ERA matched it last year, that’s still an unsightly number for a top-tier closer.

A comparison of Diaz’s Statcast profile doesn’t give us any indication as to what went so wrong last year either.

Everything was still elite, it’s just he got hit harder more often. In fact, Diaz’s hard-hit rate in 2019 was in the bottom 2nd percentile among all qualified pitchers. Where does the truth lie? Probably somewhere in between. Diaz’s career numbers averaged over his four Major League seasons and RotoBaller projections (below) look like the best assessment of what to expect from Diaz in 2020.

Anything close to these numbers will be good and will provide equal value for money considering his current ADP. The concern comes should Diaz get off to a rough start. The Mets have structured themselves to make a run at the playoffs without success, but also find themselves in a division with three opponents who are serious contenders for the postseason (including the current World Series champion Nationals).

Whereas the Mets wanted to give Diaz as much time as their ninth-inning guy last year, they surely won’t afford him that same luxury this year with the newly acquired Dellin Betances and the emergence of Seth Lugo, both of whom are more than capable alternatives to close out games. Diaz had seven blown saves in 2019 and it’s doubtful that he’ll be given the leeway to do the same this year.

Verdict: Overvalued

Whilst Diaz has the stuff to post similar numbers to his 2018 season, last year is a stark reminder of how badly it can go for closers, even ones considered elite. You aren’t paying for an elite closer in drafts with Diaz’s ADP at 121, but the ceiling is that of the best closer in baseball. The floor, however, was on full display last year, and with the options the Mets' bullpen now has, a slow start could see Diaz out of the closer role before the first month of the season is in the books.

When drafting relief pitchers this early, you need saves to offer any kind of value and the risk is significant enough that he could be a complete bust. There are less risky options (even for closers) going later than Diaz and ones with similarly projected numbers.

Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers

Speaking of later options for a closer, look no further than Leclerc, who has a current ADP on NFBC of 172 and is the 18th relief pitcher being drafted. Like Diaz, Leclerc had an outstanding 2018 season. Acting as a setup guy to Keone Kela, Leclerc only became the Rangers’ closer after Kela was traded to the Pirates. Leclerc went on to register 12 saves and went into the '19 season as the Rangers’ closer.

A rough start to the 2019 season saw Leclerc yield save opportunities to veteran Shawn Kelley, before getting the closer role back in August after Kelley himself struggled. Leclerc finished the season with only 14 saves.

Here’s a comparison of Leclerc’s last two seasons:

The thing that screams off the page at you is the walk rate (BB%). His 13% BB% was 18th-highest among the 341 MLB pitchers who had 50+ IP last year. His strikeout rate was 26th-best among those 341 pitchers, however, so there is a good compensatory factor for a higher than preferable walk rate. Leclerc’s SIERA does hint of a bit of misfortune last year too, as although an ERA of 3.73 wouldn’t have been anything to write home about, it would still likely have seen Leclerc keep his job longer than he did.

Similarly to Diaz, Leclerc’s Statcast profile comparing his last two seasons offers no reason why he would struggle the way he did in 2019.

In 2018, of all MLB pitchers with at least 50 IP, Leclerc’s expected batting average (xBA) of .136 and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) of .195 was tops and his expected weighted OBA (xwOBA) of .209 was second best. That’s how good he was in 2018. Given his average fastball velocity went up last year (96.8 MPH in 2019, 95.3 MPH in 2018), there’s no discernible reason for his numbers to have declined the way they did.

Like we did with Diaz, we can take a look at Leclerc’s career numbers averaged over the last three years (since he became a regular in the Major Leagues) with his projections and we get a good idea of what to expect from him in 2020.

If Leclerc manages to put up an ERA similar to his career mark and his projections, he should have the closer role all season. He’ll continue to put up excellent strikeout numbers and the Rangers, despite being in a tough division, should still win enough games for Leclerc to register enough saves to provide higher value than his current ADP.

Having already been named the closer, and with little by way of competition, Leclerc should have a long enough leash should he struggle out the gate. Although like all closers, that’s never a given.

Verdict: Undervalued

Leclerc has stuff in his arsenal as good, if not better than, most of the 17 relief pitchers being drafted ahead of him. Although the walks will most probably continue to be an issue, there will be enough save opportunities and strikeouts to give Leclerc a route to being a top-10 closer in fantasy. If last season’s ERA was Leclerc’s floor, given his SIERA supporting it was unlucky too, you’ve still got the 2018 upside to hope for when drafting Leclerc.

With his current ADP, he’ll only need to match his projections and career numbers to give value. If you don’t want to pay for saves and relief pitchers in the earlier rounds, Leclerc makes an excellent addition to your roster and the high strikeout numbers make him easier to pair with the lower strikeout closers available later in drafts.

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